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Poultry Outlook in Australia to 2014-15

08 March 2010

Output from the poultry meat industry is expected to continue to increase by around four per cent annually throughout the forecast period to 2014-15, according to James Fell in Australian Commodities report for March 2010 from ABARE.

The Australian poultry industry has experienced strong growth over the past 20 years, with production increasing on average by around four per cent a year. This pattern of growth is expected to continue over the short to medium term. Australian poultry production is forecast to reach 910,000 tonnes in 2010-11, which is an increase of four per cent on the previous year. Over the medium term, Australian poultry production is projected to increase by 13 per cent, compared with 2010-11, to reach 1.030 million tonnes by 2014-15.

The Australian poultry industry is highly concentrated with two major processors supplying more than 70 per cent of the domestic broiler chicken market. Chicken meat production accounts for around 96 per cent of total production of poultry meats. The chicken meat industry is more vertically integrated than other livestock industries and, in general, operates a business model whereby the processors provide both feed and day-old chicks to broiler chicken growers who are contracted to grow the chickens.

Feed accounts for around 60 per cent of production costs in the poultry industry. Grains and oilseed meal account for around 90 per cent of feed volume and therefore constitute a large proportion of feed costs. Over the short to medium term, feed grain and oilseed meal prices are projected to be below the highs observed in recent years but still above that achieved in the early 2000s.

The Australian poultry industry continues to import new genetic strains that enable producers to improve numerous traits, including average slaughter weights, feed conversion ratios, disease resistance and fertility, which can lower production costs. Between 1991-92 and 2008-09, average chicken slaughter weights have increased by an average of slightly more than one per cent a year. This trend is expected to continue over the medium term.

In 2010-11, retail prices of fresh whole chicken are forecast to average 548 cents a kilogram, largely unchanged from 2009-10. Over the medium term, retail prices (in 2009-10 dollars) are projected to decline to 500 cents a kilogram by 2014-15 as lower production costs and increased supplies put downward pressure on price.

Poultry consumption is forecast to be around 39 kilograms a person in 2010-11, which is two per cent higher than the previous year. Over the medium term, consumption is projected to grow to 42 kilograms a person by 2014-15. Poultry is projected to maintain its position as the most consumed meat on a carcass weight equivalent basis.

Poultry exports for 2010-11 are forecast to be 36,000 tonnes. Over the outlook period, Australian poultry exports are projected to increase only slightly to 38,000 tonnes by 2014-15.

Pig meat and poultry outlook
  units 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 f 2010-11 f 2011-12 z 2012-13 z 2013-14 z 2014-15 z
Production '000 t 835 866 873 910 940 970 1,000 1,030
Consumption
/person
kg 37.8 37.5 38.0 38.8 39.5 40.3 40.9 41.7
Export volume de '000 t 30.2 37.1 33.1 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.0
f ABARE forecast. z ABARE projection.
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; ABARE.


Further Reading

- You can view the full report by clicking here.


March 2010



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