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GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS 2013 - Population Is Key to Egg Uptake Growth in Africa and Oceania

16 April 2014

Poultry industry analyst, Terry Evans, forecasts the likely trends in per-capita egg consumption in Africa and Oceania in the coming years.

Egg consumption is not measured directly in any country in Africa or Oceania, the published figures being based on estimates of production adjusted for exports and imports to give an estimate of supplies available for consumption.

Regarding individual country consumption, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) ceased making this calculation on a per-person basis in 2009 (Table 1).

Table 1. Egg consumption (kg/person/year)
 2000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Africa 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3
Americas 10.6 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.4
Asia 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.2
Europe 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.4 12.6 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.7
Oceania 6.2 6.3 6.21 5.6 5.6 5.9 7.1 6.5 6.5 6.4
WORLD 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.9 8.9
Source: FAO

Egg Consumption in Africa

For Africa, the average uptake per person showed a positive gain between 2000 and 2004 but then the level appears to have stabilised to 2009. Even if per-person consumption has remained unchanged, by 2013, the total quantity of eggs consumed will have been almost one million tonnes more than in 2000 as a consequence of the human population increasing from 808 million to more than 1.1 billion. However, there are indications that the quantity of eggs eaten per person has risen a little towards 2.4kg.

Between 2000 and 2030, the population of Africa will grow at more than twice the world average (Table 2 and Figure 1). Consequently, by 2030, this region with 1.63 billion people will account for almost 20 per cent of the global population compared with about 13 per cent back in 2000. If there has not been any increase in the uptake per person since the 2009 figure of 2.3kg, total egg consumption for the region will approach four million tonnes in 2030.

Table 2. Human population of the world (millions)
Region20002010201520202030
 Number%Number%Number%Number%Number%
Africa 808.3 13.2 1,031.1 14.9 1,166.2 15.9 1,312.1 17.0 1,634.4 19.4
Americas 841.7 13.7 942.7 13.6 991.2 13.5 1,037.5 13.4 1,120.1 13.3
Asia 3,717.4 60.7 4,165.4 60.2 4,384.9 59.9 4,581.5 59.4 4,886.9 58.0
Europe 729.1 11.9 740.3 10.7 743.1 10.1 743.6 9.6 736.4 8.7
Oceania 31.2 0.5 36.7 0.5 39.4 0.5 42.1 0.5 47.3 0.6
WORLD 6,127.7 100.0 6,916.2 100.0 7,324.8 100.0 7,716.7 99.9 8,424.9 100.0
Source: FAO

The per-person consumption data for the individual countries (Table 3) reveals a wide range around the regional average of 2.3kg with one-third of the population eating less than 1kg per person and, in many instances, uptake was lower in 2009 than in 2000 as industry growth failed to match population increases.

Nigeria, with a current population estimated at 174 million, saw egg consumption expand from 3.0kg to 3.7kg per person between 2000 and 2009. At an average egg weight of 60g this latter figure would be equivalent to around 62 eggs per person per year. Since then, consumption has trended upwards with one assessment putting the figure for 2012 as high as 71 eggs, of which 67 were eaten in shell and four as egg products.

It is generally considered that increased processing of eggs would reduce the level of wastage and approaches have been made for government to help in providing the necessary technology to convert eggs to products. However, this technology is expensive and there is concern that individual investors may not be willing to become involved in such schemes without government support.

Table 3. Human population of Africa and per-capita egg consumption
 Human population (millions)Consumption (kg/person/year)
Country200020102015P2020P200020052006200720082009
Algeria 31.7 37.1 40.6 43.8 2.8 4.7 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.6
Angola 13.9 19.6 22.8 26.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9
Benin 7.0 9.5 10.9 12.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2
Botswana 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.0
Burkina Faso 11.6 15.5 17.9 20.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Burundi 6.7 9.2 10.8 12.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Cameroon 15.9 20.6 23.4 26.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Cabo Verde 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3
Central African Rep. 3.6 4.4 4.8 5.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Chad 8.3 11.7 13.6 15.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Comoros 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
Congo 3.1 4.1 4.7 5.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3
Cote d'Ivoire 16.1 19.0 21.3 23.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4
Dem. Rep. Congo 47.0 62.2 71.3 81.3 - - - - - -
Djibouti 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2
Egypt 66.1 78.1 84.7 91.1 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.6 3.3
Equatorial Guinea 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 - - - - - -
Eritrea 3.9 5.7 6.7 7.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Ethiopia 66.0 87.1 98.9 111.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Gabon 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0
Gambia 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.3 0.9 1.7 2.1 3.3 3.8 0.9
Ghana 18.8 24.3 27.0 29.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
Guinea 8.8 10.9 12.4 13.9 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0
Guinea-Bissau 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Kenya 31.3 40.9 46.8 52.9 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7
Lesotho 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Liberia 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.1 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.6 2.2 1.7
Libya 5.2 6.0 6.3 6.8 10.2 10.0 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.4
Madagascar 15.8 21.1 24.2 27.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Malawi 11.3 15.0 17.3 19.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
Mali 10.3 14.0 16.3 19.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Mauritania 2.7 3.6 4.1 4.6 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.4
Mauritius 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 9.1 8.5 7.8 7.0 6.3 5.4
Morocco 28.7 31.6 34.0 35.9 6.9 6.4 6.6 7.0 4.9 5.1
Mozambique 18.3 24.0 27.1 30.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Namibia 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5
Niger 11.0 15.9 19.3 23.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Nigeria 122.9 159.7 183.5 210.2 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7
Reunion 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 - - - - - -
Rwanda 8.4 10.8 12.4 14.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Saint Helena # # # # - - - - - -
Sao Tome/Principe 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2
Senegal 9.9 13.0 15.0 17.1 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8
Seychelles 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.5 9.6
Sierra Leone 4.1 5.8 6.3 6.9 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5
Somalia 7.4 9.6 11.1 12.8 - - - - - -
South Africa 44.9 51.5 53.5 55.1 5.4 5.8 6.7 7.0 7.4 6.7
South Sudan - - 12.2 13.9 - - - - - -
Sudan - - 39.6 44.5 - - - - - -
Swaziland 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.7 6.6 4.7 2.6 2.6 2.5
Togo 4.9 6.3 7.2 8.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
Tunisia 9.6 10.6 11.2 11.8 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.5
Uganda 24.3 34.0 40.1 47.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
United Rep. Tanzania 34.0 45.0 52.3 60.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Western Sahara 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 - - - - - -
Zambia 10.1 13.2 15.5 18.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.0 3.1
Zimbabwe 12.5 13.1 15.1 17.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.1
AFRICA 808.3 1,031.1 1,166.2 1,312.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3
WORLD 6,127.7 6,916.2 7,324.8 7,716.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.9 8.9
# less than 50,000; - no figure; P= projected
Source: FAO

Egg consumption in South Africa is estimated to have reached a record 153 eggs per person in 2012. However, rising feed prices have impacted negatively on producers’ actions. Indeed, from April to September 2013, the rate of feed cost increases was higher than that of egg producers’ prices putting pressure on profits.

Based on estimates of a cut-back in layer numbers and egg production, it appears that per-person uptake has declined in 2013 and may well do so again in 2014.

The South African Poultry Association (SAPA) is working closely with schools and health organisations to stimulate egg consumption through promoting the health benefits of eggs.

Based on FAO data egg production, egg consumption and also consumption per person accelerated from 2000 to peak in 2008 when uptake per person was assessed at 7.4kg. Since then, according to an International Egg Commission report, it appears that the average has increased to 8.9kg per person in 2012.

Bearing in mind the room for error in compiling consumption data there appears only a few instances where the uptake per person in Africa is growing although total consumption is expected to expand in line with population increases.

world human population
Figure 1. Global human population by region (millions)

Egg Consumption in Oceania

Egg consumption per person in Australia escalated by some 30 per cent from 164 eggs in 2003 to 214 in 2012 (Table 4). This emphasises the point that egg production growth at some 3.6 per cent per year outpaced the population increase of 1.5 per cent.

During 2013, the Australian Egg Corporation Ltd (AECL) maintained its promotional strategy under the tag headline 'Eggs, Easy As', investing in both above- and below-the-line campaigns directed at consumers and healthcare professionals.

It is estimated that possibly 10 per cent of all eggs are consumed as products. That in many other developed economies the proportion of eggs eaten in product forms is 20 per cent or more hints at possible future growth possibilities in this sector in Australia.

Table 4. Human population of Oceania and per-capita egg consumption
 Human population (millions)Consumption (kg/person/year)
Country200020102015P2020P200020052006200720082009
American Samoa 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Australia 19.3 22.4 23.9 25.4 5.9 5.2 6.8 6.2 6.0 5.8
Cook Isl. # # # # - - - - - -
Fiji 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.6 2.3 2.8
French Polynesia 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.8 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.8 8.6
Guam 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - - - - -
Kiribati 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3
Marshall Isl. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Micronesia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Nauru # # # # - - - - - -
New Caledonia 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 6.7 7.4 7.8 8.0 9.9 11.5
New Zealand 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.8 9.5 10.4 10.6 9.5 10.6 10.7
Niue # # # # - - - - - -
N. Mariana Isl. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Palau # # # # - - - - - -
Papua New Guinea 5.4 6.9 7.6 8.4 - - - - - -
Samoa 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 3 3.7 2.8 2.8 3.2
Solomon Isl. 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2
Tokelau # # # # - - - - - -
Tonga 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Tuvalu # # # # - - - - - -
Vanuatu 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 3.0 3.6 3.6
Wallis/Fortuna Isl. # # # #   - - - - -
OCEANIA 31.2 36.7 39.4 42.1 6.2 5.9 7.1 6.5 6.5 6.4
WORLD 6,127.7 6,916.2 7,324.8 7,716.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.9 8.9
# less than 50,000; - no figure; P= projected
Source: FAO

In New Zealand, egg consumption has been fairly stable at around 230 eggs per person per year although there are some indications that it has now slipped to 223.

It is estimated that some 15 per cent of eggs are consumed in products.

The egg industry has to move production out of conventional cages by 2022, almost certainly increasing production costs. As this will impact on profits, production could well be cut, which will increase prices. However, retail price increases in developed economies do not have anywhere near the negative impact on demand as in developing nations. Nevertheless, as the total supply could well be cut back, so the quantities of eggs consumed in total and per person could decline.

April 2014



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