GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Wealth Distribution Key to Chicken Consumption Growth30 October 2015
Poultry consumption is expected to grow in future, with Asia to play a big part in that, but the increase may be limited by weaker economic growth, writes industry analyst Terry Evans.
In 2015 Asia is expected to account for almost 60 per cent of the world’s human population of 7.3 billion (Table 10). Between 2000 and 2015 the global population expanded by around 1.2 per cent per year. This rate is anticipated to slow to only 0.8 per cent by 2050.
|Table 10. Human population (millions)|
The fastest expanding region will be Africa recording growth of more than 2 per cent per year which contrasts markedly with a rate of only 0.5 per cent for Asia. As a result, Asia’s share of the total will actually decline from 61 to 54 per cent while, by 2050, a quarter of the world’s population will live in Africa compared with less than 16 per cent today. Noticeably, Europe’s population will contract from around 743 million to about 709 million.
While currently mainland China has the biggest population of 1,402 million, by 2028 India will have become the most populated country with some 1,454 million people.
While chicken production is projected to expand in most countries as a result of increased profitability, projected weaker economic growth for both developed and developing countries could limit increases in consumption.
The latest forecast for global growth in 2015 is 2.8 per cent, rising to 3.2 per cent by 2017. For the developing nations the corresponding figures are 4.4 and 5.4 per cent. However for China, the rate slips from 7.1 to 6.9 per cent, while for India a rise is foreseen from 7.5 to 8.0 per cent.
As incomes increase the demand for meat rises when compared to that for cereals. By 2030 world meat consumption is forecast to rise to 45.3kg per person from 41.3kg in 2015.
Of these totals, poultry meat is expected to account for 17.2kg in 2030 rising from 13.8kg in 2015. Thus, poultry is forecast to increase its share of total meat uptake from a little over 33 per cent to almost 38 per cent.
In developing countries poultry uptake is expected to rise by a third from 10.5kg to 14.0kg.
The main factors contributing to growth in poultry, though more particularly, total chicken consumption, will be changes in population numbers, real income growth, chicken prices relative to its competitors and changes in dietary preferences.
World poultry uptake averaged an estimated 14.5 kg per person in 2011 compared with 11kg in 2000 – an increase of 3.5kg or 32 per cent. For Asia the gain was just under 3kg per person per year as consumption increased from 6.6kg to 9.5kg (Table 11 and figure 10).
|Table 11. Asia's human population and poultry meat consumption|
|Human population (millions)||Poultry consumption* (kg/person/year)|
|China, Hong Kong SAR||6.8||7.3||7.6||7.9||52.9||53.4||54.5||64.4||67.1||59.4||54.9|
|China, Macao SAR||0.4||0.6||0.6||0.7||23.0||28.6||33.4||34.8||36.7||36.7||36.3|
|China, Taiwan Prov||21.9||23.4||23.6||23.5||34.3||32.4||38.5||32.7||33.9||32.6||32.1|
|Iran Isl Rep||65.9||79.5||84.2||91.3||12.6||17.6||27.3||25.2||25.9||-||-|
|Korea Dem Peo Rep||22.8||25.2||25.8||26.7||1.3||1.9||1.8||1.7||1.7||1.8||1.8|
|Lao Peo Dem Rep||5.4||7.0||7.7||8.8||2.2||3.4||3.5||3.7||3.8||-||-|
|Occ Pal Ter||3.2||4.6||5.1||6.4||22.9||-||14.4||15.6||19.9||-||-|
|Syrian Arab Rep||16.4||22.3||25.7||29.9||6.6||-||8.3||8.8||8.6||-||-|
|Timor - Leste||0.9||1.2||1.3||1.6||6.0||5.2||5.0||4.8||4.9||-||-|
|United Arab Emirates||3.0||9.6||10.6||12.3||44.7||46.5||43.8||37.5||39.4||-||-|
|*Supplies available to be consumed, - no data available|
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Figure 10. Asia's poultry meat uptake has boosted the world total (kg/person/year).
It should be noted that these, along with the individual country figures, are not measures of actual consumption but estimates of the supplies of poultry considered to be available for consumption having adjusted production levels with trade differences.
Also to be considered is that, even if the total quantity of poultry meat eaten may have increased, the average uptake per person can decline in countries where human population growth exceeds that of poultry meat availability.
Looking at the period 2000 to 2011, only a handful of the fifty or so countries listed recorded a reduction in estimated uptake levels. Also heartening, is that two-thirds of those countries for which data has been released for 2012 and 2013 reported either stable or further increases in consumption.
The range in consumption per person is enormous from less than 2kg to more than 60kg. The higher uptake figures tend to be in small, or more developed economies. Israelis appear to be the biggest poultry consumers with an average of almost 70kg per person in 2011.
While consumption in India is among the lowest at less than 2kg per person, an increase of only 0.1kg per person would raise the total consumption figure by some 130,000 tonnes or so a year. Clearly, there is massive potential for growth in this country.
In contrast, poultry consumption in China is already relatively high at around 13kg per person. However, here, by far and away, pig meat is the favourite choice. With urbanisation and improved incomes, Chinese consumers have increased their purchases of pork more rapidly than poultry.
Thus, between 2010 and 2013, the average uptake of pig meat in China rose from 35.7kg to 38.4kg, the corresponding figures for poultry being 12.2 and 13.2kg per person, underlining the importance of the strength of competition there on meat consumption. Currently China has an oversupply situation as a result of the impact of avian influenza on the demand for chicken and the closing of live bird markets.
While an improvement in real incomes and hence the ability of people to buy more poultry is key to future growth in purchases, even more important in developing countries is that the distribution of wealth is such that income differentials between the rich and poorer sectors of the community are narrowed.
That chicken is the cheapest form of animal protein is particularly important in developing countries where significant proportions of the population are on low incomes. However, in some countries there can be a problem that chicken production, because of a poor infrastructure or/and little government support, is unable to expand to meet a growing demand.
In developed and the more advanced developing economies changes in diets or eating habits, mirrored by the growth in eating from take-away outlets or quick-service restaurants, are having a significant positive impact on sales of chicken.
The desire for higher-value and quality foods, coupled with population growth have led to large increases in the demand for animal products in many developing countries and this trend is expected to continue as according to a World Agriculture towards 2015/2030 FAO report, “Per capita consumption of animal products (in developing countries) is still less than a third of that in industrial countries, so there remains a significant potential to increase the contribution of animal products to the diet, both in absolute and percentage terms.”