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GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Chicken Production Outside the EU is Much Faster Than Within

04 November 2015

In Europe, non-European Union countries have expanded chicken meat production at six times the rate of EU member states since 2000, writes industry analyst Terry Evans.

Reference to Table 1 reveals that between 2000 and 2013 chicken meat output in Europe grew at 4.2 per cent per year climbing from 9.5 million tonnes to 16.1 million tonnes, while the global figure rose by a little under 4 per cent per year from 58.7 million tonnes to 96.3 million tonnes.

Table 1. Indigenous* chicken meat production (million tonnes)
Region20002005200620072008200920102011201220132014E2015F
Americas 27.1 32.7 33.7 35.0 37.5 36.9 38.8 40.0 40.5 42.1 42.8 43.4
Asia 18.6 22.4 23.5 25.0 26.2 28.0 29.2 30.3 31.6 32.2 32.1 32.7
Europe 9.5 10.9 10.8 11.6 12.1 13.3 13.9 14.6 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.7
Oceania 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3
WORLD 58.7 70.3 72.3 76.2 80.7 83.4 87.4 90.6 93.3 96.3 97.5 99.0
             
Broiler meat production (million tonnes)            
WORLD 50.1 63.1 64.3 68.3 72.8 73.6 78.2 81.4 83.4 84.6 86.4 87.3
*Meat from the slaughter of birds originating in a country, plus the meat equivalent of any such birds exported live.            
E 2014 and F 2015 author's estimates and forecasts for chicken meat, F 2015 USDA forecast for broiler meat.            
Regional figures may not add up to the world totals due to rounding.            
Sources: FAO for chicken meat, USDA for broiler meat.            

Thus, during this period, Europe’s share of the world total increased from 16.2 to 16.7 per cent. This figure could come close to 17 per cent this year.

A close look at the data for Europe (Table 2) shows that while production in the EU during this period expanded by 2.1 per cent per year or 2.6 million tonnes from 8.3 million tonnes to 10.9 million tonnes, output in non-EU European countries jumped by a massive 12 per cent per year from 1.2 million tonnes to 5.2 million tonnes.

Indigenous chicken meat production in Europe ('000 tonnes eviscerated weight)
Country2000200520092010201120122013
Albania 2.6 6.9 10.5 11.2 11.9 10.8 15.8
Austria 83.5 82.7 98.2 104.4 111.8 106.8 107.5
Belarus 76.1 89.5 203.1 243.2 279.8 333.9 365.1
Belgium 315.3 313.0 264.3 288.3 362.2 362.2 362.2
Bosnia/Herzegovina 3.6 8.4 31.1 36.5 44.0 52.1 40.7
Bulgaria 104.4 75.8 128.9 111.0 107.0 111.9 102.5
Croatia 23.9 30.3 30.3 23.2 29.5 28.7 26.1
Czech Rep 230.0 230.0 291.1 286.9 275.4 259.8 254.9
Denmark 187.0 182.0 168.0 186.0 186.2 187.0 168.0
Estonia 7.6 12.8 14.2 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.9
Finland 65.4 87.6 97.4 89.6 95.3 101.0 105.4
France 1273.0 1165.0 1113.8 1160.0 1160.0 1178.6 1205.6
Germany 586.9 710.0 865.3 929.0 1004.0 1056.6 1108.1
Greece 107.9 162.1 113.9 114.2 111.1 115.5 116.3
Hungary 303.1 270.2 268.5 268.7 272.0 2694.9 285.5
Iceland 3.1 5.8 7.2 6.9 7.2 7.8 7.9
Ireland 84.0 91.0 88.8 103.4 109.7 103.7 104.7
Italy 761.8 695.0 822.3 865.0 889.0 938.6 914.0
Latvia 4.9 15.2 20.7 22.1 22.9 23.7 25.9
Lithuania 25.1 55.8 69.5 75.5 74.6 79.2 87.4
Macedonia Rep 3.9 3.0 2.4 3.6 3.0 2.5 2.3
Malta 6.0 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.1
Moldova 14.4 24.4 21.5 33.7 36.7 31.2 31.4
Netherlands 766.2 712.2 927.0 877.8 906.3 900.3 932.6
Norway 43.0 49.8 71.2 75.9 75.1 81.0 104.0
Poland 531.1 799.8 1086.4 1115.1 1165.0 1414.3 1520.7
Portugal 221.3 213.9 288.6 309.5 284.0 282.9 340.4
Romania 251.1 274.9 302.3 278.9 254.8 275.9 245.7
Russian Federation 752.2 1326.7 2304.7 2548.9 2875.3 3285.3 3448.3
Serbia - - 79.3 85.4 95.9 84.1 88.0
Slovakia 16.0 78.4 83.8 78.9 65.5 66.0 67.6
Slovenia 17.7 45.3 47.1 45.9 47.1 48.7 47.0
Spain 983.5 1060.6 1120.2 1029.0 1158.7 1151.7 1129.2
Sweden 91.3 99.9 109.1 115.0 113.9 112.1 119.8
Switzerland 39.0 52.7 63.2 67.1 70.4 74.4 78.0
Ukraine 190.0 463.0 766.0 859.8 880.1 920.0 1019.6
United Kingdom 1222.0 1315.0 1292.2 1402.7 1368.9 1408.8 1471.3
EUROPEAN UNION 8301.4 8815.5 9743.5 9925.5 10220.2 10653.0 10892.6
EUROPE 9464.7 10878.8 13278.8 13872.9 14575.0 15513.3 16072.3
- no figure       
Source: FAO       

Production in Europe looks likely to rise to around 16.7 million tonnes in 2015, which would represent almost 17 per cent of the estimated world total of some 99 million tonnes.
In terms of the number of birds slaughtered, the world total rose from 40,635 million to almost 61,299 million between 2000 and 2013, the corresponding figures for Europe being 6,881 million and 10,208 million.

The average slaughter weight per bird in Europe increased during the period from 1.38kg to 1.58kg, while the world average went up from 1.4kg to 1.57kg. Putting this into perspective the average eviscerated weight in the Americas increased from 1.7kg to almost 2kg per bird.

The ranking of countries (Table 3) shows that in 2013 there were seven producing more than a million tonnes of chicken meat a year, their combined output amounting to almost 11 million tonnes or 68 per cent of the regional total. Since 2000 there has been some dramatic changes in the data.

Table 3. Chicken meat production ranking in Europe in 2013
Country('000 tonnes)
Russian Federation 3448.3
Poland 1520.7
United Kingdom 1471.3
France 1205.6
Spain 1129.2
Germany 1108.1
Ukraine 1019.6
Netherlands 932.6
Italy 914.0
Belarus 365.1
Belgium 362.2
Portugal 340.4
Hungary 285.5
Czech Rep 254.9
Romania 245.7
Denmark 168.0
Sweden 119.8
Greece 116.3
Austria 107.5
Finland 105.4
Ireland 104.7
Norway 104.0
Bulgaria 102.5
Serbia 88.0
Lithuania 87.4
Switzerland 78.0
Slovakia 67.6
Slovenia 47.0
Bosnia/Herzegovina 40.7
Moldova 31.4
Croatia 26.1
Latvia 25.9
Estonia 16.9
Albania 15.8
Iceland 7.9
Malta 4.1
Macedonia Rep 2.3

Back in 2000, only two countries, France and the United Kingdom, produced more than a million tonnes a year. The Russian Federation (now number one in the ranking table) and Poland (number two) were placed sixth and eighth, while the Ukraine (now seventh) was fourteenth!

The United States Department of Agriculture compiles data relating to what it considers to be broiler meat production (Table 4 and figures 1 and 2). While the absolute figures differ from the FAO chicken meat data which includes estimates of backyard production and the meat from culled layers, the trends are similar. It is clear from both sets of figures that the Ukraine, the Russian Federation and Poland are the fastest growing industries.

Table 4. Leading broiler producers in Europe ('000 tonnes)
Country200020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015F
Russian Federation 410 950 1180 1410 1680 2060 2310 2575 2830 3010 3250 3400
United Kingdom 1163 1283 1290 1261 1214 1220 1323 1297 1322 1391 - -
Poland 560 800 824 896 730 1060 1123 1150 1325 1450 - -
Germany 587 710 749 826 868 911 1073 1150 1160 1190 - -
France 1242 986 886 993 1009 1008 1041 1096 1091 1146 - -
Spain 965 1045 1030 1034 1059 1063 1085 1073 1063 1041 - -
Italy 762 666 612 670 713 742 780 796 816 820 - -
Ukraine 20 289 372 475 570 650 733 767 800 899 964 980
Netherlands 697 552 547 612 626 655 664 710 738 750 - -
EU - 27 7970 8169 7740 8492 8526 8949 9478 9320 9565 9910 10095 10215
F forecast, - no figure            
Sources: AVEC, USDA            

Figure 1. The leading broiler meat producers in Europe ('000 tonnes)

Figure 2. The Ukraine, Russia and Poland have recorded the fastest growths in Europe ('000 tonnes)

For the Russian Federation broiler output is expected to rise further this year to a record 3.4 million tonnes while production in the Ukraine will approach a million tonnes. For the EU as a whole the total is forecast at 10.2 million tonnes.

According to a USDA Gain Report, expansion in the EU reflects a slowly growing domestic demand as the economic recession has hit poultry less than other more expensive meats. Low feed prices have also helped push up production.

Between 2014 and 2024 the EU Commission expects poultry meat (all forms) production to expand slowly at just 0.7 per cent per year from a shade over 13 million tonnes to nearly 14 million tonnes, the strongest increases occurring in Hungary, Poland and Romania. Growth is also anticipated in the UK, Benelux, Spain, Poland, Germany and Italy.

However, the outlook for France is for a decline, mainly reflecting a loss of export markets to the Middle East following the end of the EU-28 export subsidy, coupled with the financial difficulties incurred by some large companies.

In 2015 Russia is expected to reach its self-sufficiency target such that imports will likely amount to no more than 10 per cent of domestic consumption. Based on the USDA broiler data, production in Russia will have increased by more than 13 per cent per year between 2005 and 2015 to reach 3.4 million tonnes eviscerated weight.

However, a recent Gain Report considers this to be an underestimate and that production will likely come close to 3.55 million tonnes this year and that further expansion is anticipated for 2016 to 3.65 million tonnes.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture is forecasting poultry meat output in 2020 to exceed six million tonnes live weight, equivalent to around 4.4 million tonnes eviscerated weight, most of which will be broiler meat.

Near-term concerns are a slow-down in consumer demand and, more importantly, the possibility of outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Two cases of H5N1 were reported in the Astrakhan and Tyva regions earlier this year. According to the Russian Union of Poultry producers, reported in a USDA Gain Report, just 10 companies account for 40 per cent of broiler production. Consequently, any outbreaks where these operations are located could lead to major cutbacks in production.

Earlier forecasts had put Ukraine’s broiler production this year at more than a million tonnes but this figure has since been revised downwards to around 980,000 tonnes as anticipated growth has slowed as a result of currency exchange rate movements and a weakened domestic demand.

Nevertheless, a USDA report notes that the commercial poultry sector remains strong as red meat consumption falls, and all the major producers have reported a stronger consumer demand and increases in sales. However, producers have also had lower incomes due to devaluation and a real decline in prices. Hence, exports will serve as a major revenue source for large producers.

November 2015



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