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GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Poultry Expands its Share of World Meat Uptake

17 November 2015

Global Poultry Trends 2012

Poultry meat will account for more than half the additional meat produced globally by 2024, writes industry analyst Terry Evans.

Compared with a base of 2012-14 total meat production is expected to rise from just under 304 million tonnes to 355 million tonnes, an increase of 51 million tonnes, of which poultry is forecast to account for some 26 million tonnes (51 per cent).

It is envisaged in an OECD/FAO report that developed countries will account for some 9 million tonnes of this increase, but developing countries will produce a further 17 or so million tonnes.

So, the additional consumption of meat during this period will consist mainly of poultry and primarily chicken. However, the report does warn that weaker economic growth for both developed and developing countries could limit consumption growth, but asserts that “Rapid population growth and urbanisation within developing regions remains the core driver to total consumption growth.”

Rising incomes boost the demand for meat, particularly in developing countries where the consumption per person of animal products is less than a third of that in industrial countries.

An FAO perspective covering the period 2015 to 2030 reveals that meat consumption is forecast to rise by 4kg per person from an estimated 41.3kg (carcase weight equivalent) to 45.3kg. However, while the gain in industrial countries will likely be 4.4kg as the average rises from 95.7kg to 100.1kg, in developing countries an increase of 5.1kg is foreseen, the average going up from 31.6kg to 36.7kg.

For poultry meat the world average is expected to rise by 3.7kg from 13.8kg to 17.2kg. Hence, by 2030 poultry meat will account for nearly 40 per cent of meat consumption against 33 per cent today. Among the developing nations average poultry uptake is expected to rise by 3.5kg from 10.5kg to 14kg.

At the outset it must be appreciated that nowhere is actual meat consumption assessed and hence all the data on meat consumption are estimates of the supplies available to be consumed.

Also, in some instances the consumption per person figures are expressed on a carcase weight basis, but in others the data relates to retail weight using for poultry meat a conversion factor of 0.88. Even so the calculations frequently produce different figures according to the source, though in all cases the same trends emerge.

Based on FAO data, world poultry uptake went up by 32 per cent between 2000 and 2011 from 11kg to 14.4kg. During this period the average for the European Union rose by just 2kg per person from 19.6 to 21.7kg.

However, at the same time the average for the whole of Europe increased by nearly 6kg from 15.9 to 21.7kg (Tables 11, 12 and figure 7) underlying how estimated poultry uptake in those European countries outside the EU has increased more rapidly than in those inside the Community.

Table 11. Poultry meat consumption (kg/person/year)
 200020052008200920102011
Africa 4.3 4.7 5.5 5.6 6.1 6.2
Americas 31.5 34.1 37.1 35.9 37.6 38.6
Asia 6.6 7.4 8.5 9.0 9.2 9.4
Europe 15.9 19.2 21.3 21.7 21.4 21.7
EU 19.6 21.0 21.5 21.9 21.4 21.7
Oceania 30.1 35.6 35.4 35.6 37.4 42.1
WORLD 11.0 12.2 13.6 13.7 14.1 14.4
Source: FAO      

Ukraine is the prime example here, consumption having leaped from a meagre 4.4kg per person back in 2000 to 23.1kg in 2009, though it then eased back to 22kg in 2012. Since then uptake appears to have stabilised somewhat and, although production is expected to expand this year, the pressure on consumer incomes is such that consumption is unlikely to increase forcing the extra output to be exported.

Another good example is Russia where uptake has more than doubled from only 9.8kg in 2000 to 23.1kg in 2011. According to a USDA report, despite price rises, Russia’s broiler consumption is expected to rise by 4 per cent in 2015 and will continue to do so, due to rising wages and broiler meat being advantageously priced against its red meat competitors.

As a result of this price advantage Russian meat processors are increasingly using poultry as a raw material, a trend which is expected to continue. According to Russia’s National meat Association, by the end of 2015, poultry will account for 46 per cent of total meat consumption. Currently Russia’s consumption is estimated at a little over 29kg per person.

Table 12. Human population of Europe and poultry meat consumption
  Human population (millions) Poultry meat consumption (kg/person/year)    
Country 2000 2015 2020 2030 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Albania 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 5.3 9.8 12.8 13.7 14.3 13.4
Andorra 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Austria 8.0 8.6 8.7 9.0 17.1 17.7 17.1 17.7 19.1 19.2
Belarus 10.0 9.3 9.0 8.5 9.1 18.0 20.9 22.2 24.6 25.2
Belgium 10.3 11.2 11.4 11.7 19.6 24.8 24.3 21.5 21.4 22.9
Bosnia/Herzegovina 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.0 7.5 10.4 11.4 11.9 14.2
Bulgaria 8.0 7.1 6.8 6.2 16.4 19.2 20.0 21.9 18.8 21.1
Croatia 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 7.0 10.5 10.5 10.3 8.2 8.9
Czech Rep 10.3 10.8 10.7 11.1 22.2 24.6 24.7 25.0 24.0 23.1
Denmark 5.3 5.7 5.8 6.0 17.3 20.0 22.7 18.9 22.0 25.4
Estonia 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 17.7 17.7 18.3 20.0 21.0 19.2
Faroe Isl 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Finland 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.7 13.7 18.8 19.7 18.4 17.5 18.2
France 59.2 65.0 66.6 69.3 26.5 21.0 21.2 23.7 23.1 23.1
Germany 83.5 82.6 81.9 79.6 13.3 13.8 14.7 15.0 14.9 14.7
Gibralter # # # # - - - - - -
Greece 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.0 13.3 13.8 14.7 15.0 14.9 14.7
Holy See # # # # - - - - - -
Hungary 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.5 34.0 27.7 28.3 27.4 23.7 25.2
Iceland 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 11.3 26.1 25.8 23.9 22.9 24.5
Ireland 3.8 4.7 5.0 5.4 30.9 26.1 27.6 26.0 23.2 21.4
Italy 57.0 61.1 61.4 61.2 18.9 15.8 17.0 17.4 17.6 18.1
Latvia 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 10.3 21.6 22.3 20.9 21.5 20.8
Liechtenstein # # # # - - - - - -
Lithuania 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 9.8 26.3 26.6 24.4 23.2 23.4
Luxembourg 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 14.8 18.0 20.0 19.0 19.7 24.2
Macedonia Rep 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 12.1 19.0 15.6 17.0 17.4 17.0
Malta 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 15.1 24.0 24.7 25.6 26.2 25.5
Moldova 4.1 3.4 3.3 3.1 5.1 12.3 14.5 12.0 15.7 15.6
Monaco # # # # - - - - - -
Montenegro - 0.6 0.6 0.6 - 11.4 13.3 12.5 14.5 13.8
Netherlands 15.9 16.8 17.0 17.3 12.6 14.5 27.0 22.5 16.1 12.4
Norway 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.8 10.1 14.9 17.6 17.0 17.1 17.2
Poland 38.3 38.2 38.2 37.5 14.5 21.1 18.6 21.4 21.5 21.7
Portugal 10.3 10.6 10.6 10.4 26.6 26.4 27.8 28.7 29.6 29.2
Romania 22.4 21.6 21.2 20.2 12.9 19.0 18.3 20.7 17.0 15.0
Russian Federation 146.8 142.1 140.0 133.6 9.8 22.0 22.4 22.8 22.3 23.1
SanMarino # # # # - - - - - -
Serbia - 9.2 9.2 8.6 - 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.8 11.0
Slovakia 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 12.6 18.1 18.1 17.5 16.1 16.4
Slovenia 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 28.9 19.8 24.5 26.2 24.8 23.5
Spain 40.3 47.2 47.8 48.2 25.4 27.4 25.4 27.7 25.5 27.0
Sweden 8.9 9.7 10.0 10.7 10.2 14.8 16.1 15.4 15.9 15.7
Switzerland 7.2 8.2 8.7 9.5 12.8 14.9 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.3
Ukraine 49.1 44.7 43.2 39.8 4.4 17.7 22.6 23.1 23.0 22.0
United Kingdom 59.2 64.1 65.9 68.9 28.5 29.0 28.2 29.0 30.2 30.8
EUROPEAN UNION 487.9 511.7 515.7 518.5 19.6 20.6 21.5 21.9 21.4 21.7
EUROPE 729.1 743.1 743.6 736.4 15.9 20.2 21.3 21.7 21.4 21.7
WORLD 6127.7 6916.2 7716.7 8424.9 11.0 13.1 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.5
# less than 50,000, - no figure          
Source: FAO          

Figure 7. Poultry meat consumption in Europe has overtaken the average for the European Union (kg/person/year)

Within the EU, broiler meat has been less affected than other meats by the economic recession. However, the quantity of poultry consumed per person appears to have stagnated as, although some consumers switched from beef or pork to chicken others, and especially those on low incomes, have reduced their protein purchases and bought more carbohydrate products.

This move has been echoed by a more rapid rise in sales of the cheaper cuts (legs and wings) than for the more expensive breasts or whole birds. According to a USDA Gain Report this trend is likely to continue in the absence of any economic recovery.

Also, in several EU countries such as Germany, France and Poland the switch to broiler meat has been enhanced by a belief that it is a healthier and leaner meat which is more convenient to prepare and cook, a view which is also expressed by the catering and restaurant sectors.

A European Commission report assesses that poultry meat consumption in the EU, expressed in retail weight terms, has risen from 20.8kg per person in 2011 to an estimated 21.8kg in 2015, and as a result of its relative cheapness and healthy image it will continue to grow to reach 22.8kg by 2024, when poultry will have increased its market share of all meats to 35 per cent compared with 33 per cent today.

Nearly all the countries in Europe have recorded major increases in uptake when compared with the year 2000, the exceptions being Hungary and Ireland. However, referring to the period 2009 to 2011, the picture is nowhere near as bright with almost half of the countries recording a decline in the uptake per person.

Regarding the human population, Europe is the only region were a reduction is anticipated (Table 13). Back in 2000 there were 729 million people in Europe representing 11.9 per cent of the global total of 6,126 million.

Although the number has risen to 743 million this year this region’s share of the world total has shrunk to 10.1 per cent. By 2050 population numbers in Europe will have declined further to 709 million or just 7.4 per cent of the global total.

Table 13. Human population of the world (millions)
Region2000 2015 2020 2030 2050 
  Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
Africa 808 13.2 1166 15.9 1312 17.0 1634 19.4 2393 25.1
Americas 842 13.7 991 13.5 1038 13.5 1120 13.3 1228 12.9
Asia 3717 60.7 4385 59.9 4582 59.4 4887 58.0 5164 54.1
Europe 729 11.9 743 10.1 744 9.6 736 8.7 709 7.4
Oceania 31 0.5 39 0.5 42 0.5 47 0.6 57 0.6
WORLD 6128 100.0 7325 100.0 7717 100.0 8425 100.0 9551 100.0
Source: FAO          

November 2015

 



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