GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Chicken Trade Growth Slows26 January 2016
While the trade in chicken meat continues to grow, the rate of increase is slowing, writes poultry industry analyst Terry Evans.
Unfortunately, the most recent data for all countries, released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), is for 2012 (Table 5).
This shows an average increase of more than 5 per cent per year between 2000 and 2012 as total exports of fresh/frozen chicken climbed from 6.9 million tonnes to 12.6 million tonnes.
In addition, sales of prepared/preserved chicken (bottom half of table 5) which have escalated by a massive 11 per cent per year, now account for more than 2 million tonnes a year, equivalent to around 3 million tonnes fresh.
Adjusting for this, total annual chicken exports in 2012 were in the region of 15.5 million tonnes a year. These figures include trade conducted between EU member countries.
|Table 5. World trade in fresh/frozen chicken meat ('000 tonnes)|
|World trade in prepared/preserved chicken (tonnes)|
More recent figures from FAO’s Food Outlook and the USDA point to a slowdown in trade. Unfortunately, the figures are not comparable.
The FAO data applies to the trade in all forms of poultry meat and indicates that, while this has increased by 55 per cent over the past decade, since 2012 it has slowed, and indeed the latest forecast for 2015 points to a 1 per cent decline in trade to 12.6 million tonnes compared with an increase of 2.4 per cent in the previous year.
The Food Outlook report states “In part, the slowdown in growth is a reflection of augmented production in importing countries which has reduced their need for external meat supplies.
"Additionally, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in some areas of the United States have caused some countries to suspend imports from this country, pending its containment and eradication.”
However, it should be noted that exports between EU member countries are not included in the Food Outlook figures. Similarly, the data published by the USDA which applies only to an assessment of broiler meat exports, does not include intra-Community trade.
These figures indicate that world exports have risen from 6.8 million tonnes in 2005 to 10.5 million tonnes in 2014. The upward trend appears to have suffered a setback this year, with the estimate slipping to 10.2 million tonnes.
However, the USDA’s estimate for 2016 of 10.7 million tonnes points to a more than 4 per cent recovery with the top three major traders, Brazil, the US and the EU, which account for more than three-quarters of world trade, expanding sales.
Returning to the FAO data, it is clear that the Americas is the key exporting region accounting for 7.7 million tonnes or 61 per cent of the total of fresh/frozen chicken meat in 2012.
Reference to Table 6 reveals that in 2012 the US and Brazil were the leading exporters in the region both shipping some 3.6 million tonnes. These two accounted for almost 93 per cent of the regional total.
However, since then Brazil has overtaken the USA as the leading exporter and in 2015 is expected to ship almost 3.7 million tonnes of broiler meat compared with just under 3 million tonnes from the USA. For 2016 the forecasts for these two countries are 3.9 million tonnes and 3.2 million tonnes respectively.
|Table 6. Exports of fresh/frozen chicken meat from countries in the Americas (tonnes)|
|Venezuela, Bol Rep||101||0||55||0||0||0||0|
Regarding imports of fresh/frozen product the Americas accounted for just 1.6 million tonnes in 2012 or about 13 per cent of the global total exports. Mexico was the major importer taking more than 603,000 tonnes, followed by Cuba with 183,000 tonnes and Canada with 162,000 tonnes.
US broiler meat exports (excluding chicken paws) dipped by 0.6 per cent in 2014 to 3.3 million tonnes primarily as the result of the Russian embargo on US exports imposed early in August that year.
While sales to Russia at 144,000 tonnes fell by 48 per cent, Mexico’s purchases at 696,000 tonnes rose by 9 per cent. Other key buyers were Angola with 232,000 tonnes (up 12 per cent), Canada with 163,000 tonnes (down 4 per cent), Cuba taking 144,000 tonnes (up 3 per cent), Iraq (including trans-shipments via Turkey) 148,000 tonnes (down 10 per cent), China 118,000 tonnes (down 10 per cent), Taiwan 115,000 tonnes (up 20 per cent), Hong Kong 105,000 tonnes (up 47 per cent) and Georgia 87,000 tonnes (up 1 per cent).
Of total exports in 2014, 1.7 million tonnes were leg quarters (down 7 per cent on 2013). Biggest buyers here were Angola with 214,000 tonnes, Mexico (142,000 tonnes), Russia (128,000 tonnes) and Cuba (119,000 tonnes).
The latest World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) of broiler exports from the US show a downward revision for 2015 to 2.99 million tonnes which compares with 3.31 million tonnes in 2014.
The latest estimate for 2016 has also been reduced from earlier forecasts but, at 3.22 million tonnes, it shows a near 8 per cent improvement over 2015. Good news on the export front is that South Africa has agreed to accept an annual quota of 65,000 tonnes from the USA in 2016. The protocol allows continued imports from non-infected areas of the USA in the event of renewed outbreaks of avian influenza.
Since 2009 Brazil’s broiler exports have climbed annually from 3.2 million tonnes to an estimated 3.6 million tonnes in 2014. Mainly driven by a devaluation of the Real, over the first eight months of 2015 chicken exports were 5.5 per cent up on the same period in 2014 at 2.82 million tonnes, while for the year as a whole a 3-4 per cent increase is envisaged boosting the total to between 3.7-3.8 million tonnes.
However, a strike of agricultural inspectors, which commenced in September is reported to be hitting exports.
Traditionally Brazil’s most important customers have been Saudi Arabia, Japan, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union, but exporters are optimistic of adding China and Russia to this list in 2015. However, Brazil’s agricultural exports to China are strongly affected by economic events in China and it must be of some concern that the Chinese government has lowered its target growth rate to around 7 per cent for 2015, and it is expected to continue to moderate down to 4.2 per cent in 2024.
Recently, South Africa and Pakistan opened their markets to Brazilian poultry. The USDA envisages a further near 4 per cent increase in Brazil’s shipments next year to around 3.9 million tonnes.
By far and away the leading chicken meat importer in the Americas is Mexico with total receipts, according to FAO stats (Table 8), having risen from 212,000 tonnes in 2000 to almost 604,000 tonnes or 38 per cent of the regional total in 2012.
Based on USDA data since then, it appears that Mexico’s imports of broilers meat continued to climb to 722,000 tonnes in 2014. The latest forecast for 2015 points to a further 5 per cent gain to around 760,000 tonnes.
This figure could rise again to 770,000 tonnes in 2016 as, according to USDA Gain Report, the demand for chicken leg quarters and especially mechanically deboned poultry meat remains strong.
This report also states that “Fast-food establishments continue expanding and introducing innovative products to drive consumer demand for poultry, specifically chicken wings. As poultry prices will remain competitive with regard to pork and beef, consumers will continue to demand poultry products in greater amounts. As Mexico is not self-sufficient in poultry it will need to import to meet the growing demand.”
While approximately 98 per cent of Mexico’s requirements originate in the US, both Chile and Brazil continue to gain market share though at a low level.
|Table 8. Imports of fresh/frozen chicken meat into countries in the Americas (tonnes)|
|British Virgin Isl||240||319||989||0||0||0||0|
|Venezuela, Bol Rep||25||104462||356427||247852||200973||168402||169950|
|- no figure|
Cuba is the second largest importer of chicken meat in the region, her purchases rising from almost 44,000 tonnes in 2000 to 183,000 tonnes in 2012. Of the latter some 149,000 tonnes came from the USA and 26,000 tonnes from Brazil.
More recent data suggest that Cuba’s purchases might reach 210,000 tonnes this year, while the USDA forecasts a record 235,000 tonnes for 2016.
Third in the import league in 2012 was Venezuela taking almost 170,000 tonnes compared with just 25 tonnes back in 2000. In 2012 her purchases from Brazil amounted to some 97,000 tonnes while Argentina provided 69,000 tonnes.
Canadian chicken imports are regulated under a tariff rate quota (TRQ) which is a function of the previous year’s production. For 2016 the global quota is projected at 83,000 tonnes compared with 80,500 tonnes in 2015.
However, Canadian companies have increasingly utilised various government- administered imports for re-export programmes (IREP.) Through these, Canadian chicken processors can import chicken meat duty free for use in processing provided they re-export the associated processed products. Total imports in 2014 were 152,000 tonnes while the estimates for 2015 and 2016 are between 155,000 and 165,000 tonnes.