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GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Chicken Trade Growth Slows

26 January 2016

Global Poultry Trends 2012

While the trade in chicken meat continues to grow, the rate of increase is slowing, writes poultry industry analyst Terry Evans.

Unfortunately, the most recent data for all countries, released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), is for 2012 (Table 5).

This shows an average increase of more than 5 per cent per year between 2000 and 2012 as total exports of fresh/frozen chicken climbed from 6.9 million tonnes to 12.6 million tonnes.

In addition, sales of prepared/preserved chicken (bottom half of table 5) which have escalated by a massive 11 per cent per year, now account for more than 2 million tonnes a year, equivalent to around 3 million tonnes fresh.

Adjusting for this, total annual chicken exports in 2012 were in the region of 15.5 million tonnes a year. These figures include trade conducted between EU member countries.

Table 5. World trade in fresh/frozen chicken meat ('000 tonnes)
Exports 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Africa 9.5 4.8 9.5 46.3 61.5 14.4 14.3
Americas 3627.4 5517.2 7311.6 7235.3 7260.7 7539.5 7733.0
Asia 1432.2 420.6 765.8 876.5 1188.0 1373.1 1287.4
Europe 1805.1 2137.3 2344.7 2592.1 3115.7 3477.8 3547.9
Oceania 14.3 21.8 31.0 33.3 29.2 32.8 39.4
WORLD 6888.4 8101.7 10462.6 10783.5 11655.1 12437.6 12621.9
Imports 2000 2005 2008  2009  2010  2011 2012 
Africa 259.0 512.9 718.2 861.9 1069.0 1283.4 1550.4
Americas 556.0 912.2 1375.6 1384.4 1493.8 1505.2 1584.9
Asia 3276.7 2767.2 4274.9 4650.3 5021.5 5780.0 5328.6
Europe 1811.2 3223.6 3374.2 3095.0 2879.7 2790.3 3029.9
Oceania 26.4 35.5 38.1 44.0 48.8 59.2 66.4
WORLD 5929.3 7451.4 9781.0 10035.5 10512.8 11418.1 11530.1
Source: FAO       
World trade in prepared/preserved chicken (tonnes)
Exports 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Africa 1823 2055 1376 1010 1020 678 2953
Americas 92866 270231 427053 418445 427611 424763 430019
Asia 212389 515800 599343 603422 699484 811738 828387
Europe 260781 432692 635024 680261 694831 746320 787468
Oceania 2220 1810 1022 1800 2930 3402 5161
WORLD 570080 1222588 1663818 1704938 1825876 1986901 2053988
Imports 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Africa 1859 6995 8875 7313 7667 10689 14449
Americas 67787 90785 127795 122584 138673 149080 160562
Asia 186704 389571 412568 429869 538226 648921 637457
Europe 304269 677625 932225 947963 1009188 1074992 1138972
Oceania 1270 2018 41558 5457 8917 9968 13151
WORLD 561889 1166994 1485621 1513186 1702671 1893650 1964591
Source: FAO

More recent figures from FAO’s Food Outlook and the USDA point to a slowdown in trade. Unfortunately, the figures are not comparable.

The FAO data applies to the trade in all forms of poultry meat and indicates that, while this has increased by 55 per cent over the past decade, since 2012 it has slowed, and indeed the latest forecast for 2015 points to a 1 per cent decline in trade to 12.6 million tonnes compared with an increase of 2.4 per cent in the previous year. 

The Food Outlook report states “In part, the slowdown in growth is a reflection of augmented production in importing countries which has reduced their need for external meat supplies.

"Additionally, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in some areas of the United States have caused some countries to suspend imports from this country, pending its containment and eradication.”

However, it should be noted that exports between EU member countries are not included in the Food Outlook figures. Similarly, the data published by the USDA which applies only to an assessment of broiler meat exports, does not include intra-Community trade.

These figures indicate that world exports have risen from 6.8 million tonnes in 2005 to 10.5 million tonnes in 2014. The upward trend appears to have suffered a setback this year, with the estimate slipping to 10.2 million tonnes.

However, the USDA’s estimate for 2016 of 10.7 million tonnes points to a more than 4 per cent recovery with the top three major traders, Brazil, the US and the EU, which account for more than three-quarters of world trade, expanding sales.

Returning to the FAO data, it is clear that the Americas is the key exporting region accounting for 7.7 million tonnes or 61 per cent of the total of fresh/frozen chicken meat in 2012.

Reference to Table 6 reveals that in 2012 the US and Brazil were the leading exporters in the region both shipping some 3.6 million tonnes. These two accounted for almost 93 per cent of the regional total.

However, since then Brazil has overtaken the USA as the leading exporter and in 2015 is expected to ship almost 3.7 million tonnes of broiler meat compared with just under 3 million tonnes from the USA. For 2016 the forecasts for these two countries are 3.9 million tonnes and 3.2 million tonnes respectively.

Table 6. Exports of fresh/frozen chicken meat from countries in the Americas (tonnes)
Country 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Antigua/Barbuda 24 0 0 0 25 14 1788
Argentina 16616 111696 193159 209271 251019 266487 329124
Aruba 0 0 0 52 15 9 1191
Barbados 28 106 204 176 150 98 49
Bolivia 166 76 829 1085 1919 1685 1777
Brazil 906753 2761966 3267889 3265749 3460760 3569903 3560370
Canada 59556 90470 138456 132753 128882 124573 121317
Chile 13457 55673 46849 81407 73341 80007 80366
Colombia 0 0 4262 2128 4681 4270 902
Costa Rica 2663 3925 2192 2735 3647 2988 2105
Cuba 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dominican Rep 0 4102 0 392 441 3028 9226
Ecuador 4849 19 494 493 383 330 101
El Salvador 4391 982 2916 3448 5495 4569 1576
Grenada 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Guatemala 1980 1617 4877 5384 5118 4888 3923
Guyana 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
Haiti 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Honduras 136 2590 1964 2665 2737 1861 218
Jamaica 240 222 215 216 205 200 229
Mexico 1479 1779 1674 5647 10626 13469 4317
Nicaragua 686 227 749 308 412 201 1
Panama 66 30 142 166 0 503 71
Paraguay 45 1332 734 2535 4395 837 0
Peru 0 35 135 71 24 177 32
Saint Lucia 0 24 1 1 1 1 1
Saint Vincent/Gren 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
Trinidad/Tobago 177 78 27 169 231 530 184
USA 2613621 2480126 3637843 3511170 3297309 3445080 3597448
Uruguay 326 76 5925 7230 8644 12943 16426
Venezuela, Bol Rep 101 0 55 0 0 0 0
AMERICAS 3627385 5517153 7311591 7235251 7260700 7539512 7732949
Source: FAO       

Regarding imports of fresh/frozen product the Americas accounted for just 1.6 million tonnes in 2012 or about 13 per cent of the global total exports. Mexico was the major importer taking more than 603,000 tonnes, followed by Cuba with 183,000 tonnes and Canada with 162,000 tonnes.

US broiler meat exports (excluding chicken paws) dipped by 0.6 per cent in 2014 to 3.3 million tonnes primarily as the result of the Russian embargo on US exports imposed early in August that year.

While sales to Russia at 144,000 tonnes fell by 48 per cent, Mexico’s purchases at 696,000 tonnes rose by 9 per cent. Other key buyers were Angola with 232,000 tonnes (up 12 per cent), Canada with 163,000 tonnes (down 4 per cent), Cuba taking 144,000 tonnes (up 3 per cent), Iraq (including trans-shipments via Turkey) 148,000 tonnes (down 10 per cent), China 118,000 tonnes (down 10 per cent), Taiwan 115,000 tonnes (up 20 per cent), Hong Kong 105,000 tonnes (up 47 per cent) and Georgia 87,000 tonnes (up 1 per cent).

Of total exports in 2014, 1.7 million tonnes were leg quarters (down 7 per cent on 2013). Biggest buyers here were Angola with 214,000 tonnes, Mexico (142,000 tonnes), Russia (128,000 tonnes) and Cuba (119,000 tonnes).

The latest World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) of broiler exports from the US show a downward revision for 2015 to 2.99 million tonnes which compares with 3.31 million tonnes in 2014.

The latest estimate for 2016 has also been reduced from earlier forecasts but, at 3.22 million tonnes, it shows a near 8 per cent improvement over 2015. Good news on the export front is that South Africa has agreed to accept an annual quota of 65,000 tonnes from the USA in 2016. The protocol allows continued imports from non-infected areas of the USA in the event of renewed outbreaks of avian influenza.

Since 2009 Brazil’s broiler exports have climbed annually from 3.2 million tonnes to an estimated 3.6 million tonnes in 2014. Mainly driven by a devaluation of the Real, over the first eight months of 2015 chicken exports were 5.5 per cent up on the same period in 2014 at 2.82 million tonnes, while for the year as a whole a 3-4 per cent increase is envisaged boosting the total to between 3.7-3.8 million tonnes.

However, a strike of agricultural inspectors, which commenced in September is reported to be hitting exports.

Traditionally Brazil’s most important customers have been Saudi Arabia, Japan, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union, but exporters are optimistic of adding China and Russia to this list in 2015. However, Brazil’s agricultural exports to China are strongly affected by economic events in China and it must be of some concern that the Chinese government has lowered its target growth rate to around 7 per cent for 2015, and it is expected to continue to moderate down to 4.2 per cent in 2024.

Recently, South Africa and Pakistan opened their markets to Brazilian poultry. The USDA envisages a further near 4 per cent increase in Brazil’s shipments next year to around 3.9 million tonnes.

By far and away the leading chicken meat importer in the Americas is Mexico with total receipts, according to FAO stats (Table 8), having risen from 212,000 tonnes in 2000 to almost 604,000 tonnes or 38 per cent of the regional total in 2012.

Based on USDA data since then, it appears that Mexico’s imports of broilers meat continued to climb to 722,000 tonnes in 2014. The latest forecast for 2015 points to a further 5 per cent gain to around 760,000 tonnes.

This figure could rise again to 770,000 tonnes in 2016 as, according to USDA Gain Report, the demand for chicken leg quarters and especially mechanically deboned poultry meat remains strong.

This report also states that “Fast-food establishments continue expanding and introducing innovative products to drive consumer demand for poultry, specifically chicken wings. As poultry prices will remain competitive with regard to pork and beef, consumers will continue to demand poultry products in greater amounts. As Mexico is not self-sufficient in poultry it will need to import to meet the growing demand.”

While approximately 98 per cent of Mexico’s requirements originate in the US, both Chile and Brazil continue to gain market share though at a low level.

Table 8. Imports of fresh/frozen chicken meat into countries in the Americas (tonnes)
Country 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Antigua/Barbuda 3700 4920 6273 6749 7147 5298 1214
Argentina 41293 2001 2561 4027 7506 8711 2533
Aruba 6600 0 0 4539 4195 4774 5882
Bahamas 5901 9449 11992 12702 12382 15921 12469
Barbados 2900 1528 74 85 110 96 39
Belize 1 1 1 2 0 0 0
Bermuda 2800 1605 4807 5548 4157 3000 2650
Bolivia 150 4 14 2899 102 180 293
Brazil 297 550 691 666 1118 2220 2136
British Virgin Isl 240 319 989 0 0 0 0
Canada 89144 105030 141807 140693 143151 148045 162263
Cayman Isl 900 7672 3344 3499 2528 2546 2656
Chile 4 13050 24387 35610 62462 72574 65695
Colombia 10005 0 126 0 0 110 6260
Costa Rica 54 449 1362 2426 2035 1304 2736
Cuba 43750 102838 143537 160280 143621 150358 183084
Dominica 2574 3090 2738 3270 3692 3166 1703
Dominican Rep 2200 4101 9681 13182 20891 17653 23179
Ecuador 51 14 0 0 0 4 24
El Salvador 630 3525 6260 7485 8095 8360 10396
Grenada 4794 4952 4143 4498 5186 5555 5606
Guatemala 11244 58103 54763 59968 68669 73604 70662
Guyana 11207 60 107 107 24 1037 2146
Haiti 15640 21780 23958 31102 49179 67173 64383
Honduras 8249 9846 7631 8954 12398 11554 8066
Jamaica 27400 24220 28898 24516 55050 34391 34066
Mexico 212146 357251 419871 480535 535732 564314 603525
Netherlands Ant 13200 12858 13210 13500 15476 - -
Nicaragua 2141 1536 1914 1865 1940 4000 4760
Panama 163 148 4336 5730 6723 7530 7831
Paraguay 84 43 529 116 239 268 116
Peru 5705 5653 8730 12817 19812 16479 20671
Saint Kitts/Nevis 2449 2695 3051 3166 3762 3816 3719
Saint Lucia 8489 7404 7059 7847 8720 9937 9808
Saint Pierre/Miq 0 51 58 40 36 42 41
Saint Vincent/Gren 4650 5593 5590 5332 5927 6896 7496
Suriname 6100 12333 13442 14181 17297 18530 18145
Trinidad/Tobago 2150 3296 14945 10385 13292 18183 17161
USA 6948 19717 46263 48237 50190 49207 51506
Uruguay 36 0 1 2 2 2 0
Venezuela, Bol Rep 25 104462 356427 247852 200973 168402 169950
AMERICAS 556012 912147 1375570 1384412 1493820 1505241 1584870
- no figure       
Source: FAO       

Cuba is the second largest importer of chicken meat in the region, her purchases rising from almost 44,000 tonnes in 2000 to 183,000 tonnes in 2012. Of the latter some 149,000 tonnes came from the USA and 26,000 tonnes from Brazil.

More recent data suggest that Cuba’s purchases might reach 210,000 tonnes this year, while the USDA forecasts a record 235,000 tonnes for 2016.

Third in the import league in 2012 was Venezuela taking almost 170,000 tonnes compared with just 25 tonnes back in 2000. In 2012 her purchases from Brazil amounted to some 97,000 tonnes while Argentina provided 69,000 tonnes.

Canadian chicken imports are regulated under a tariff rate quota (TRQ) which is a function of the previous year’s production. For 2016 the global quota is projected at 83,000 tonnes compared with 80,500 tonnes in 2015.

However, Canadian companies have increasingly utilised various government- administered imports for re-export programmes (IREP.) Through these, Canadian chicken processors can import chicken meat duty free for use in processing provided they re-export the associated processed products. Total imports in 2014 were 152,000 tonnes while the estimates for 2015 and 2016 are between 155,000 and 165,000 tonnes.

 



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