Unfortunately, the most recent data for all countries, released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), is for 2012 (Table 5).

This shows an average increase of more than 5 per cent per year between 2000 and 2012 as total exports of fresh/frozen chicken climbed from 6.9 million tonnes to 12.6 million tonnes.

In addition, sales of prepared/preserved chicken (bottom half of table 5) which have escalated by a massive 11 per cent per year, now account for more than 2 million tonnes a year, equivalent to around 3 million tonnes fresh.

Adjusting for this, total annual chicken exports in 2012 were in the region of 15.5 million tonnes a year. These figures include trade conducted between EU member countries.

Table 5. World trade in fresh/frozen chicken meat ('000 tonnes)
Exports	2000	2005	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Africa	9.5	4.8	9.5	46.3	61.5	14.4	14.3
Americas	3627.4	5517.2	7311.6	7235.3	7260.7	7539.5	7733.0
Asia	1432.2	420.6	765.8	876.5	1188.0	1373.1	1287.4
Europe	1805.1	2137.3	2344.7	2592.1	3115.7	3477.8	3547.9
Oceania	14.3	21.8	31.0	33.3	29.2	32.8	39.4
WORLD	6888.4	8101.7	10462.6	10783.5	11655.1	12437.6	12621.9
Imports	2000	2005	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Africa	259.0	512.9	718.2	861.9	1069.0	1283.4	1550.4
Americas	556.0	912.2	1375.6	1384.4	1493.8	1505.2	1584.9
Asia	3276.7	2767.2	4274.9	4650.3	5021.5	5780.0	5328.6
Europe	1811.2	3223.6	3374.2	3095.0	2879.7	2790.3	3029.9
Oceania	26.4	35.5	38.1	44.0	48.8	59.2	66.4
WORLD	5929.3	7451.4	9781.0	10035.5	10512.8	11418.1	11530.1
Source: FAO
World trade in prepared/preserved chicken (tonnes)
Exports	2000	2005	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Africa	1823	2055	1376	1010	1020	678	2953
Americas	92866	270231	427053	418445	427611	424763	430019
Asia	212389	515800	599343	603422	699484	811738	828387
Europe	260781	432692	635024	680261	694831	746320	787468
Oceania	2220	1810	1022	1800	2930	3402	5161
WORLD	570080	1222588	1663818	1704938	1825876	1986901	2053988
Imports	2000	2005	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Africa	1859	6995	8875	7313	7667	10689	14449
Americas	67787	90785	127795	122584	138673	149080	160562
Asia	186704	389571	412568	429869	538226	648921	637457
Europe	304269	677625	932225	947963	1009188	1074992	1138972
Oceania	1270	2018	41558	5457	8917	9968	13151
WORLD	561889	1166994	1485621	1513186	1702671	1893650	1964591
Source: FAO

More recent figures from FAO’s Food Outlook and the USDA point to a slowdown in trade. Unfortunately, the figures are not comparable.

The FAO data applies to the trade in all forms of poultry meat and indicates that, while this has increased by 55 per cent over the past decade, since 2012 it has slowed, and indeed the latest forecast for 2015 points to a 1 per cent decline in trade to 12.6 million tonnes compared with an increase of 2.4 per cent in the previous year.

The Food Outlook report states “In part, the slowdown in growth is a reflection of augmented production in importing countries which has reduced their need for external meat supplies.

"Additionally, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in some areas of the United States have caused some countries to suspend imports from this country, pending its containment and eradication.”

However, it should be noted that exports between EU member countries are not included in the Food Outlook figures. Similarly, the data published by the USDA which applies only to an assessment of broiler meat exports, does not include intra-Community trade.

These figures indicate that world exports have risen from 6.8 million tonnes in 2005 to 10.5 million tonnes in 2014. The upward trend appears to have suffered a setback this year, with the estimate slipping to 10.2 million tonnes.

However, the USDA’s estimate for 2016 of 10.7 million tonnes points to a more than 4 per cent recovery with the top three major traders, Brazil, the US and the EU, which account for more than three-quarters of world trade, expanding sales.

Returning to the FAO data, it is clear that the Americas is the key exporting region accounting for 7.7 million tonnes or 61 per cent of the total of fresh/frozen chicken meat in 2012.

Reference to Table 6 reveals that in 2012 the US and Brazil were the leading exporters in the region both shipping some 3.6 million tonnes. These two accounted for almost 93 per cent of the regional total.

However, since then Brazil has overtaken the USA as the leading exporter and in 2015 is expected to ship almost 3.7 million tonnes of broiler meat compared with just under 3 million tonnes from the USA. For 2016 the forecasts for these two countries are 3.9 million tonnes and 3.2 million tonnes respectively.

Table 6. Exports of fresh/frozen chicken meat from countries in the Americas (tonnes)
Country	2000	2005	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Antigua/Barbuda	24	0	0	0	25	14	1788
Argentina	16616	111696	193159	209271	251019	266487	329124
Aruba	0	0	0	52	15	9	1191
Barbados	28	106	204	176	150	98	49
Bolivia	166	76	829	1085	1919	1685	1777
Brazil	906753	2761966	3267889	3265749	3460760	3569903	3560370
Canada	59556	90470	138456	132753	128882	124573	121317
Chile	13457	55673	46849	81407	73341	80007	80366
Colombia	0	0	4262	2128	4681	4270	902
Costa Rica	2663	3925	2192	2735	3647	2988	2105
Cuba	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dominican Rep	0	4102	0	392	441	3028	9226
Ecuador	4849	19	494	493	383	330	101
El Salvador	4391	982	2916	3448	5495	4569	1576
Grenada	23	0	0	0	0	0	0
Guatemala	1980	1617	4877	5384	5118	4888	3923
Guyana	0	0	0	0	11	0	0
Haiti	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Honduras	136	2590	1964	2665	2737	1861	218
Jamaica	240	222	215	216	205	200	229
Mexico	1479	1779	1674	5647	10626	13469	4317
Nicaragua	686	227	749	308	412	201	1
Panama	66	30	142	166	0	503	71
Paraguay	45	1332	734	2535	4395	837	0
Peru	0	35	135	71	24	177	32
Saint Lucia	0	24	1	1	1	1	1
Saint Vincent/Gren	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Trinidad/Tobago	177	78	27	169	231	530	184
USA	2613621	2480126	3637843	3511170	3297309	3445080	3597448
Uruguay	326	76	5925	7230	8644	12943	16426
Venezuela, Bol Rep	101	0	55	0	0	0	0
AMERICAS	3627385	5517153	7311591	7235251	7260700	7539512	7732949
Source: FAO

Regarding imports of fresh/frozen product the Americas accounted for just 1.6 million tonnes in 2012 or about 13 per cent of the global total exports. Mexico was the major importer taking more than 603,000 tonnes, followed by Cuba with 183,000 tonnes and Canada with 162,000 tonnes.

US broiler meat exports (excluding chicken paws) dipped by 0.6 per cent in 2014 to 3.3 million tonnes primarily as the result of the Russian embargo on US exports imposed early in August that year.

While sales to Russia at 144,000 tonnes fell by 48 per cent, Mexico’s purchases at 696,000 tonnes rose by 9 per cent. Other key buyers were Angola with 232,000 tonnes (up 12 per cent), Canada with 163,000 tonnes (down 4 per cent), Cuba taking 144,000 tonnes (up 3 per cent), Iraq (including trans-shipments via Turkey) 148,000 tonnes (down 10 per cent), China 118,000 tonnes (down 10 per cent), Taiwan 115,000 tonnes (up 20 per cent), Hong Kong 105,000 tonnes (up 47 per cent) and Georgia 87,000 tonnes (up 1 per cent).

Of total exports in 2014, 1.7 million tonnes were leg quarters (down 7 per cent on 2013). Biggest buyers here were Angola with 214,000 tonnes, Mexico (142,000 tonnes), Russia (128,000 tonnes) and Cuba (119,000 tonnes).

The latest World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) of broiler exports from the US show a downward revision for 2015 to 2.99 million tonnes which compares with 3.31 million tonnes in 2014.

The latest estimate for 2016 has also been reduced from earlier forecasts but, at 3.22 million tonnes, it shows a near 8 per cent improvement over 2015. Good news on the export front is that South Africa has agreed to accept an annual quota of 65,000 tonnes from the USA in 2016. The protocol allows continued imports from non-infected areas of the USA in the event of renewed outbreaks of avian influenza.

Since 2009 Brazil’s broiler exports have climbed annually from 3.2 million tonnes to an estimated 3.6 million tonnes in 2014. Mainly driven by a devaluation of the Real, over the first eight months of 2015 chicken exports were 5.5 per cent up on the same period in 2014 at 2.82 million tonnes, while for the year as a whole a 3-4 per cent increase is envisaged boosting the total to between 3.7-3.8 million tonnes.

However, a strike of agricultural inspectors, which commenced in September is reported to be hitting exports.

Traditionally Brazil’s most important customers have been Saudi Arabia, Japan, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union, but exporters are optimistic of adding China and Russia to this list in 2015. However, Brazil’s agricultural exports to China are strongly affected by economic events in China and it must be of some concern that the Chinese government has lowered its target growth rate to around 7 per cent for 2015, and it is expected to continue to moderate down to 4.2 per cent in 2024.

Recently, South Africa and Pakistan opened their markets to Brazilian poultry. The USDA envisages a further near 4 per cent increase in Brazil’s shipments next year to around 3.9 million tonnes.

By far and away the leading chicken meat importer in the Americas is Mexico with total receipts, according to FAO stats (Table 8), having risen from 212,000 tonnes in 2000 to almost 604,000 tonnes or 38 per cent of the regional total in 2012.

Based on USDA data since then, it appears that Mexico’s imports of broilers meat continued to climb to 722,000 tonnes in 2014. The latest forecast for 2015 points to a further 5 per cent gain to around 760,000 tonnes.

This figure could rise again to 770,000 tonnes in 2016 as, according to USDA Gain Report, the demand for chicken leg quarters and especially mechanically deboned poultry meat remains strong.

This report also states that “Fast-food establishments continue expanding and introducing innovative products to drive consumer demand for poultry, specifically chicken wings. As poultry prices will remain competitive with regard to pork and beef, consumers will continue to demand poultry products in greater amounts. As Mexico is not self-sufficient in poultry it will need to import to meet the growing demand.”

While approximately 98 per cent of Mexico’s requirements originate in the US, both Chile and Brazil continue to gain market share though at a low level.

Table 8. Imports of fresh/frozen chicken meat into countries in the Americas (tonnes)
Country	2000	2005	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Antigua/Barbuda	3700	4920	6273	6749	7147	5298	1214
Argentina	41293	2001	2561	4027	7506	8711	2533
Aruba	6600	0	0	4539	4195	4774	5882
Bahamas	5901	9449	11992	12702	12382	15921	12469
Barbados	2900	1528	74	85	110	96	39
Belize	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
Bermuda	2800	1605	4807	5548	4157	3000	2650
Bolivia	150	4	14	2899	102	180	293
Brazil	297	550	691	666	1118	2220	2136
British Virgin Isl	240	319	989	0	0	0	0
Canada	89144	105030	141807	140693	143151	148045	162263
Cayman Isl	900	7672	3344	3499	2528	2546	2656
Chile	4	13050	24387	35610	62462	72574	65695
Colombia	10005	0	126	0	0	110	6260
Costa Rica	54	449	1362	2426	2035	1304	2736
Cuba	43750	102838	143537	160280	143621	150358	183084
Dominica	2574	3090	2738	3270	3692	3166	1703
Dominican Rep	2200	4101	9681	13182	20891	17653	23179
Ecuador	51	14	0	0	0	4	24
El Salvador	630	3525	6260	7485	8095	8360	10396
Grenada	4794	4952	4143	4498	5186	5555	5606
Guatemala	11244	58103	54763	59968	68669	73604	70662
Guyana	11207	60	107	107	24	1037	2146
Haiti	15640	21780	23958	31102	49179	67173	64383
Honduras	8249	9846	7631	8954	12398	11554	8066
Jamaica	27400	24220	28898	24516	55050	34391	34066
Mexico	212146	357251	419871	480535	535732	564314	603525
Netherlands Ant	13200	12858	13210	13500	15476	-	-
Nicaragua	2141	1536	1914	1865	1940	4000	4760
Panama	163	148	4336	5730	6723	7530	7831
Paraguay	84	43	529	116	239	268	116
Peru	5705	5653	8730	12817	19812	16479	20671
Saint Kitts/Nevis	2449	2695	3051	3166	3762	3816	3719
Saint Lucia	8489	7404	7059	7847	8720	9937	9808
Saint Pierre/Miq	0	51	58	40	36	42	41
Saint Vincent/Gren	4650	5593	5590	5332	5927	6896	7496
Suriname	6100	12333	13442	14181	17297	18530	18145
Trinidad/Tobago	2150	3296	14945	10385	13292	18183	17161
USA	6948	19717	46263	48237	50190	49207	51506
Uruguay	36	0	1	2	2	2	0
Venezuela, Bol Rep	25	104462	356427	247852	200973	168402	169950
AMERICAS	556012	912147	1375570	1384412	1493820	1505241	1584870
- no figure
Source: FAO

Cuba is the second largest importer of chicken meat in the region, her purchases rising from almost 44,000 tonnes in 2000 to 183,000 tonnes in 2012. Of the latter some 149,000 tonnes came from the USA and 26,000 tonnes from Brazil.

More recent data suggest that Cuba’s purchases might reach 210,000 tonnes this year, while the USDA forecasts a record 235,000 tonnes for 2016.

Third in the import league in 2012 was Venezuela taking almost 170,000 tonnes compared with just 25 tonnes back in 2000. In 2012 her purchases from Brazil amounted to some 97,000 tonnes while Argentina provided 69,000 tonnes.

Canadian chicken imports are regulated under a tariff rate quota (TRQ) which is a function of the previous year’s production. For 2016 the global quota is projected at 83,000 tonnes compared with 80,500 tonnes in 2015.

However, Canadian companies have increasingly utilised various government- administered imports for re-export programmes (IREP.) Through these, Canadian chicken processors can import chicken meat duty free for use in processing provided they re-export the associated processed products. Total imports in 2014 were 152,000 tonnes while the estimates for 2015 and 2016 are between 155,000 and 165,000 tonnes.