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GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Oceania’s Growth Linked to Australia

22 March 2016

Global Poultry Trends 2012

Poultry meat consumption rises in Oceania are beating the world average, reports industry analyst Terry Evans.

Chicken meat output in Oceania represents just 1.3 per cent of the world total.

Between 2000 and 2013 production expanded at a healthy 4.2 per cent per year as it climbed from 736,000 tonnes to 1.26 million tonnes. This increase is directly related to the growth in Australia where output rose from 614,000 tonnes to 1.06 million tonnes, as this country accounts for some 84 per cent of the regional total (Table 1 and figure 1).

Table 1. Chicken meat production in Oceania ('000 tonnes eviscerated weight)       
Country 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
American Samoa * * * * * * *
Australia 613.6 760.5 834.5 883.2 1019.1 1039.1 1061.0
Cook Isl * * * * * * *
Fiji 8.1 11.8 11.7 14.3 20.4 15.7 16.5
French Polynesia 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Guam * * * * * * *
Kiribati 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Micronesia Fed St 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Nauru * * * * * * *
New Caledonia 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
New Zealand 105.3 158.5 136.9 144.4 159.9 172.1 171.2
Niue * * * * * * *
Papua New Guinea 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0
Samoa 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Solomon Isl 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Tokelau * * * * * * *
Tonga 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Tuvalu * * * * * * *
Vanuatu 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Wallis/Futuna Isl * * * * * * *
OCEANIA 735.7 940.4 993.4 1052.1 1209.6 1237.3 1259.3
E estimated, * less than 50 tonnes       
Source: FAO       

Figure 1. Australia accounts for 84 per cent of Oceania's chicken meat output ('000 tonnes)

Chicken production is set to continue to grow and is forecast by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) to reach 1.16 million tonnes in 2015/16 and further to 1.32 million tonnes in 2019/20. So, it will its number one position as the most consumed meat in Australia, accounting for 28 per cent of meat production compared with around 25 per cent in 2013/14.

New Zealand, the second largest producer in the region, saw its industry grow by 3.8 per cent per year to 2013 when chicken meat output reached a similar level to the previous year at 171,000 tonnes. The Poultry Industry Association of New Zealand (PIANZ) considers that the production of all forms of poultry meat in that year amounted to 177,000 tonnes rising to almost 190,000 tonnes in 2014.

Although production in Fiji in 2012 and 2013 failed to match the “high” of more than 20,000 tonnes in 2011, output has nevertheless, doubled since 2000.

Imports double

Imports of fresh/frozen chicken meat into the region have more than doubled since 2000 to exceed 66,000 tonnes in 2012 (Table 2). Three countries dominate this trade, Samoa (taking almost 13,500 tonnes in 2012) French Polynesia (13,200 tonnes) and Papua New Guinea (12,100 tonnes).

Table 2. Imports of fresh/frozen chicken meat by countries in Oceania (tonnes)       
Country 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
American Samoa 1600 0 0 0 0 0 0
Australia 0 0 270 1297 1837 2113 5126
Cook Isl 520 914 729 637 878 1538 986
Fiji 707 2782 1408 1116 1419 1137 2101
French Polynesia 9912 11068 11888 12312 12755 13763 13220
Guam 0 12 0 0 0 0 0
Kiribati 570 1347 757 762 617 492 641
New Caledonia 5300 7183 8024 8627 7709 8478 7893
New Zealand 0 0 0 0 0 0 21
Niue 60 50 54 45 60 25 54
Papua New Guinea 1 858 2269 3881 3779 6169 12058
Samoa 4100 7091 7191 7489 9660 10859 13467
Solomon Isl 100 119 657 817 879 2801 1078
Tonga 2531 3226 3475 5376 7156 9512 7496
Tuvalu 290 174 234 286 336 325 345
Vanuatu 740 715 1169 1348 1720 1933 1873
OCEANIA 26431 35539 38125 43993 48805 59145 66359
Source: FAO       

Details regarding the trade with Samoa and Papua New Guinea are not available but for French Polynesia, the main suppliers were the USA (11,200 tonnes) and to a much lesser extent, Argentina (1,700 tonnes).

Just two countries dominate the export trade from this region - Australia and New Zealand - as total sales escalated from around 14,300 tonnes to almost 40,000 tonnes by 2012 (table 3).

Table 3. Exports of fresh/frozen chicken meat from countries in Oceania (tonnes)       
Country 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Australia 14127 17466 271879 29231 24741 29235 31260
Fiji 3 7 88 98 29 61 24
New Zealand 128 4356 3738 3998 4379 3457 8091
Vanuatu - - 0 0 0 14 14
OCEANIA 14258 21829 31015 33327 29149 32767 39389
- No figure       
Source: FAO       

Australia’s exports more than doubled during the review period from 14,100 tonnes to exceed 31,200 tonnes.

In 2012 the bulk of the business was conducted with Papua New Guinea (11,500 tonnes) while 4,800 tonnes went to the Philippines, 4,400 tonnes to Hong Kong, 3,300 tonnes to South Africa and 1,700 tonnes to Vanuatu. In general, exports account for around 3 per cent of Australia’s production.

Some 95 per cent comprise frozen cuts and offal including feet, kidneys and livers, which attract a higher price than in domestic markets. The remaining 5 per cent is mainly frozen whole birds.

In 2014/15 exports are estimated to have risen 14 per cent to 40,500 tonnes and by a further 3 per cent in 2015/16 to 41,600 tonnes. By 2019/20 shipments of some 47,400 tonnes are anticipated.

Australia’s chicken imports are small because of biosecurity restrictions which are intended to prevent the entry of diseases that could affect the domestic flock.

New Zealand’s exports have expanded quite dramatically since 2000 though the total in 2012 was only around 8,100 tonnes with Australia (4,400 tonnes) and Fiji (2,000 tonnes) the main recipients.

Consumption rise beats the world average

Oceania’s human population currently stands at just over 39 million and is forecast to rise to more than 47 million by 2030 (Table 4). Some 4.5 million of this 8 million increase will come about as a result of the anticipated expansion in Australia.

Between 2000 and 2011, poultry meat consumption in the region, with an annual average growth of more than 3 per cent between 2000 and 2011, has risen faster than the world figure of around 2.5 per cent (Table 4 and figure 2).

Table 4. Human population of Oceania and poultry meat consumption          
  Human population     Poultry meat consumption    
  (millions)     (kg/person/year)    
Country 2000 2015 2020 2030 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
American Samoa 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Australia 19.1 24.0 25.6 28.5 32.4 39.0 37.3 38.2 40.1 45.1
Cook Isl # # # # - - - - - -
Fiji 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 12.4 18.7 18.6 15.0 18.7 24.6
French Polynesia 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 40.1 46.8 45.6 46.0 45.8 48.5
Guam 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - - - - -
Kiribati 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 13.2 21.6 17.8 16.4 14.9 15.6
Marshall Isl 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Micronesia Fed St 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Nauru # # # # - - - - - -
New Caledonia 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 31.7 42.2 41.1 43.5 40.7 43.7
New Zealand 3.9 4.5 4.7 5.1 26.7 34.4 33.5 30.7 32.2 35.5
Niue # # # # - - - - - -
N Mariana Isl 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Palau # # # # - - - - - -
Papua New Guinea 5.4 7.6 8.4 10.1 - - - - - -
Samoa 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 24.5 34.4 40.4 41.5 52.3 58.1
Solomon Isl 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.4 6.0
Tokelau # # # # - - - - - -
Tonga 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Tuvalu # # # # - - - - - -
Vanuatu 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 6.7 8.3 10.6 10.6 11.4 12.2
Wallis/Futuna Isl # # # # - - - - - -
OCEANIA 31.1 39.3 42.1 47.4 30.1 36.8 35.4 35.6 37.4 42.1
# less than 50,000          
- No figure          
Source: FAO          

Figure 2. Oceania's poultry meat consumption has risen faster than the world average (kg/person/year)

In the most populated country, Australia, average poultry meat consumption has increased from 32.4kg per person in 2000 to 45.1kg in 2011.

However, data provided by ABARAS postulates a nearly 2 per cent rise in chicken uptake in 2014/15 to 45.4 kg per person with a further 2 per cent increase in 2015/16 to 46.1kg, which compares with 31.3kg for beef and veal, 27.3kg for pig meat and only 10kg for mutton and lamb, the latter having slumped from 18.5kg back in 2000.

Over the five years to 2014/15 chicken meat has been on average 50 per cent cheaper than pork, 59 per cent cheaper than lamb and 65 per cent cheaper than beef. So, chicken now accounts for nearly one-quarter of meat production in Australia compared with 20 per cent a decade ago.

By 2019/20 uptake is anticipated to average 49.2kg per person. Chicken meat sales breakdown into 34 per cent fresh pieces, 30 per cent whole fresh birds, 29 per cent processed, and just 7 per cent frozen.

In contrast to the beef and sheep meat sectors the chicken industry is highly concentrated and vertically-integrated with around 70 per cent of output supplied by two privately-owned companies.

The changes in consumer attitudes to chicken are put down to the greater diversity in the range of items offered, the improved quality and consistency of chicken products and improved price competitiveness. Two factors have influenced the latter.

Firstly, an increase in the number of automated processing plants and improvements in production efficiency. Nowadays a 2kg live weight bird is produced in around 35 days compared with 39 days in 2000.

The picture in New Zealand is somewhat similar. Here, based on the FAO data, poultry meat uptake has risen from 26.7kg per person in 2000 to 35.5kg in 2011. At least one forecast puts current uptake at around 37kg of which chicken is considered to account for 35.7kg per person.

Factors favouring sustainable growth have been industry-funded innovation in processing and sound marketing. The increases in chicken consumption have been mainly in the fresh and further-processed sectors, with some 77 per cent of chicken now sold fresh.

For the other countries in the region for which the FAO has produced data (Table 4) the levels of poultry meat consumption are well above the world average with the exceptions of the Solomon Isles and Vanuatu.

 



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