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International Egg and Poultry Review

08 August 2007

US - By the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service - This is a weekly report looking at international developments concerning the poultry industry.

EU-27 Poultry

The broiler markets in the EU have mostly recovered from the highly pathogenic avian influenza scare in early 2006, when highly pathogenic H5N1 was found in wild birds from several countries and a turkey farm in France. EU-25 broiler production fell 3.5 percent and consumption dropped 3.1 percent. Although total EU-25 exports were stable, France experienced a 20 percent drop in exports due to a range of import bans on France. Producers remain cautious and production is not expected to return to 2005 levels yet. AI remains a threat this year as infections have been detected in wild birds and some commercial flocks. High feed and energy costs also constrain production levels. EU broiler production is forecast to recover in 2008.

In 2007, broiler imports into the EU are expected to increase by about 100,000 MT due to the unlimited imports of salted poultry at low tariff in the first half of 2007 following the outcome of the WTO panel and the consequent implementation of new TRQs for salted and cooked poultry for Brazil and Thailand in the second half of 2007. Imports are forecast to slightly lower in 2008 as cheap imports are restricted by import quotas.

EU broiler exports are expected to partly recover in 2007, as export bans against France have been lifted. The strong EURO exchange rate and competition from Brazil are constraining recovery. Domestic consumption of broilers in the EU is also expected to recover to about the 2005 pre-AI level. Media coverage on recent outbreaks of AI in several Member States has not had a strong impact on consumer behavior. EU broiler exports are forecast to remain stable if export refunds continue to be available.

Top 5 EU-27 Member States
Chicken Production, in thousand metric tons

Chicken Exports, in thousand metric tons



EU turkey production is not expected to recover in 2007 or 2008. Increases in turkey production in Poland and Hungary are not expected to fully offset the drop in France and the United Kingdom. EU turkey exports are expected to decrease in part due to the more competitive exports from Brazil.

Top 5 EU-27 Member States
Turkey Production, in thousand metric tons

Turkey Exports, in thousand metric tons

The accession of Bulgaria and Romania on January 1, 2007 is not expected to have much impact on the EU market, as they only represent 3 percent of the EU poultry production. Both countries are net importers and are expected to increase their intra-EU imports, since imports from outside the EU have mostly come to a halt. U.S. poultry (H.S. 0207) exports to Romania stopped after July 2006 and totaled 52,695.7 metric tons for the seven month period. Exports to Bulgaria continued through November 2006 and totaled 2,958.2 metric tons. This compares 2005 when the U.S. exported 92,538.9 metric tons to Romania and 7,572.6 metric tons to Bulgaria.

Romania: Chicken Meat Production and Trade
‘000 metric tons

Bulgaria Trade in Poultry

The European Commission’s report, Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the European Union, 2007-2014, was released in July, 2007. These projections assume that no further cases of H5N1 would occur over the medium term. Poultry production is expected to grow at a pace close to the 1.9% per year average over the period 1999-2004 (pre-AI years). EU-27 exports are expected to decline gradually over the medium term due to strong competition on the world markets by low cost producers and an unfavorable exchange rate with the U.S. dollar and the Brazilian real. With the decline in extra-EU exports, the EU-27 is expected to become a net importer by the end of the projection period.

Poultry meat market projections for the EU-27, 2005-2014 ('000 t cwe*)

Sources: USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service; UN Food and Agricultural Organization; European Commission

To view the full report, including tables, please click here

ThePoultrySite News Desk





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