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Meat Consumption and Production to Rise

24 December 2010

BRAZIL - Meat industry will have higher production and consumption in 2011, according to the Brazilian beef exporters association, Abiec.

Abiec says that internationally, although there is still much doubt about the performance of major economies, a modest recovery is expected.

With a recover, it is believed that the world consumption of meat can expand by about 1.5 per cent, especially for poultry, with consumption expected to grow about 2.5 per cent.

Global production of meat is also expected to grow by about 1.5 per cent, which Abiec says should provide balance between supply and demand and produce no major price pressures.

However, the beef market is expected to behave differently, with production dropping slightly and this Abiec says will certainly continue to put pressure on prices in foreign markets.

In Brazil, there is also an optimistic view of the market with both production and consumption forecast to expand, although Abiec says it is also quite likely that it will be another year of relatively high prices for consumers.

The projected growth for the Brazilian economy in 2011, the continued reduction of unemployment (according to IBGE, the rate has reached its lowest level since 2002) and continued expansion of income, especially in the lower income strata, tend to support a growth in consumption.

For beef, estimates are that there will be production growth between 1.5 per cent and two per cent.

The increase is not expected to affect prices, which are expected to keep at tehi high 2010 levels for both producers and consumers.

The forecasts for both beef and chicken are optimistic. The production growth should exceed three per cent, with the barrier of 12 million tonnes being largely overcome.

Exports will be affected by exchange rate appreciation and possibly the suspension of imports from Russia. This will mean that domestic availability could rise substantially, which then would ensure good prices for consumers and a probable new record of per capita consumption in the country.

For pork, it is expected that the consumption, production and exports will grow, ensuring the expansion of the sector in 2011.

Pork is expected to follow a similar pattern to chicken and a sharp rise in grain prices may negatively influence production costs and thus compromise the performance of these sectors.

Abiec concludes that in the absence of any major unrest or economic collapse, 2011 will be a year of growth in meat consumption and production.

ThePoultrySite News Desk



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