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US Broiler Forecast Unchanged: Turkey, Egg Output Estimates Lowered

12 December 2013

ANALYSIS - The latest USDA estimates for poultry meat and egg production in the US for 2013 and 2014, summarised by Jackie Linden.

US Production

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA forecasts higher production of total red meat and poultry in the US for both 2013 and 2014 at 93,285 million pounds and 93,715 million pounds, respectively.

The new estimate for broiler meat output in 2013 has been revised downwards from last month and now stands at 37,766 million tonnes, while the figure for turkey meat production this year is now 5,835 million tonnes.

No change has been made to 2014 broiler production since last month; it stands at 38,900 million pounds. However, the turkey production forecast has been reduced to 5,915 million tonnes, based on the latest hatchery data.

Egg production is reduced slightly for both 2013 (to 7,933 million dozen) and 2014 (8,065 million dozen).

Poultry Meat and Egg Exports

At 7,391 million pounds, the 2013 broiler export forecast is lowered slightly based on exports to date but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged at 7,550 million pounds.

Turkey exports are raised for 2013 from 745 to 767 million pounds but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged at 780 million pounds.

Price Forecasts

Broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2013 and 2014 have been raised in the December report.

Demand for broiler meat is firm, supported by expected tight supplies of beef and moderate production increases. The average price for broilers for 2013 is now estimated to be 99.4 cents per pound with a range of 91 to 98 cents per pound for 2014.

Turkey prices are estimated at 99.3 cents per pound for 2013. They are expected to be supported by slower forecast growth in production so USDA estimates the 2014 average to be 97 and 104 cents per pound.

Egg prices forecasts have been raised for 2013 (at 123.6 cents per dozen) and 2014 (between 107 and 115 cents per dozen), reflecting current price strength and lower forecast production.

Further Reading

You can view the full WASDE report by clicking here.

Jackie Linden

Jackie Linden

Top image via Shutterstock

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