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USDA Reports Sharply Rally Corn, Push Soybeans Up, Sink Wheat

10 January 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

ANALYSIS - Freshly released USDA reports pushed corn futures into a sharp rally amid smaller-than-expected grain stocks and production figures and a record first-quarter usage pace, writes Jim Wyckoff for ThePoultrySite.

Corn stocks in the US as of December 1 stood at 10.426 billion bushels, compared to 10.77 billion bushels expected by the trade. USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 13.925 billion bushels, while the trade expected a 14.053 billion-bushel figure. USDA now puts the national average U.S. corn yield at 158.8 bushels per acre, down from 160.1 bushels per acre in the November report.

The 2013-14 U.S. corn carryover is seen by USDA at 1.631 billion bushels - down from the December estimate of 1.792 billion bushels. The 2013-14 global corn carryover is seen by USDA at 160.23 million metric tons (MMT), which is down from December's estimate of 162.46 MMT. Importantly, Friday's price action in corn futures does strongly hint that a major market low is now in place.

Soybean futures were posting modest gains in the aftermath of Friday's data from the U.S. Agriculture Department. U.S. soybean stocks as of December 1 stood at 2.148 billion bushels, compared to trade expectations of 2.17 billion bushels.

U.S. soybean production was pegged at 3.289 billion bushels, up slightly from trade expectations of 3.270 billion bushels. USDA now puts the national average bean yield at 43.3 bushels per acre, up from 43 bushels per acre in the November report.

The 2013-2014 soybean carryover is seen by USDA at 150 million bushels, which is unchanged from the December projection. The 2013-2014 global soybean carryover is 72.33 MMT, which is up from the December USDA estimate of 70.62 MMT.

Wheat futures prices were solidly lower and set new contract lows following a bearish USDA report. All U.S. wheat stocks were 1.463 billion bushels on December 1, while the trade expected 1.41 billion bushels. Implied use in the second quarter of the 2013-14 marketing year is 407 million bushels, down 6 percent from the same period last year.

All winter wheat seedings in the U.S. were reported to be 41.892 million acres. The trade expected 43.7 million acres, and compares to 43.09 million acres in 2013. The 2013-2014 wheat carryover is seen at 608 million bushels, up from the December estimate of 575 million bushels.

The global 2013-2014 global wheat carryover is 185.4 MMT, up from the December estimate of 182.78 MMT.

ThePoultrySite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

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