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Gradual Improvement Forecast for Australian Poultry Sector

15 December 2014

AUSTRALIA - The latest figures indicate that Australian poultry and egg farmers are experiencing gradual improvements in production and prices.

In its latest 'Agricultural Commodities' report for the December quarter, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasts a continuation in the recent gradual improvement in the poultry sector.

Using 1997-98 as the basis year (100), poultry slaughter prices have been rising gradually since a low point in 2011-12 of 108.3. The estimate for 2013-14 is 115.4 and for 2014-15, the forecast is 116.1.

Egg prices have followed a similar pattern, with a low of 104.2 from 2010 to 2012. The estimated index for 2013-14 was 112.7 and the forecast for 2014-15 is 115.8.

The 2013-14 estimated gross value for poultry meat is A$2.92 per kilo, with a one cent reduction forecast for 2014-15, thus slightly exceeding the level at the start of the study period (2009-10).

Production of poultry meat (carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meat) in Australia made a sharp jump in 2010-11 to 1.015 million tonnes from 834,000 tonnes the year before. Since then, output has climbed slowly to reach as estimated 1.084 million tonnes in 2013-14. The forecast for 2014-15 is 1.130 million tonnes. 

The gross value of this output reflects both the growing production and higher prices so for poultry meat, it has risen each year from A$1.785 billion in 2009-10 to an estimated A$2.314 billion in 2013-14 and the forecast for 2014-15 is A$2.442 billion.

The same pattern has been followed in the value of egg production, which is estimated to reach A$670 million in 2013-14 with annual increases since A$428 million in 2009-10. The forecast for 2014-15 stands at A$690 million.

Exports of poultry meat (fresh, chilled and frozen) are expected to have reached 37,000 tonnes in 2013-14 and ABARES' forecast for 2014-15 is 42,000 tonnes. The values of those exports are A$50 million and A$58 million, respectively.

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