GLOBAL – Smaller maize output will drive a ‘modest decline’ in global grain production this year.
However, grain production will remain three per cent above the five year average, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).
This will, in part, be possible thanks to a record soyabean year, bucking the trend with an 11 per cent increase.
In its latest grain market report, the IGC predicted maize to drop by 43 million tonnes, taking volumes three per cent below last year’s record harvest.
A lower US corn crop, as well as reduced wheat prospects in Argentina, China and India were highlighted in the report for 2015/16.
With total use set to lift only seven per cent, the IGC predicts closing stocks to expand sharply.
Record human demand last year is expected to be matched over the coming season and demands from livestock, biofuel and brewing sectors will remain steady.
The IGC said: “Livestock sector needs will likely stay high, but feed utilisation of grains will continue to face competition from alternatives, especially oilseed meals which are expected to be in abundant supply.
“Industrial use is forecast to rise, mainly for starch and brewing, with demand in the ethanol sector seen broadly unchanged y/y.
“Global stocks at the end of 2015/16 are projected to contract by 5 per cent, to 415m t; most of the reduction is for maize in the major exporters, but with falls, too, for wheat and barley.”
The report sees world trade decreasing by one per cent this year, largely due to a decline in Barley transportation.