USDA International Egg and Poultry
21 March 2012
- World meat demand and imports continue strong growth, especially in many middle- and low-income countries. Projected global growth for overall meat consumption averages more than 2 percent annually over the next decade, with per capita consumption increasing for each major type of meat (beef, pork, and poultry).
- The projections assume that policies will continue to be used in Russia to stimulate domestic pork and poultry production and to reduce imports.
Growth in world meat consumption is projected to increase about 2.2 percent per year during 2012-2021. Global per capita meat consumption continues to increase and meat shipments from major exporters rise about 1.8 percent per year. The projected growth rates of exports from major exporters of beef, pork, and poultry meat are 2.5, 1.2, and 2.1 percent per year, respectively. During this period, exports rise 1.7 million tons for beef, 0.7 million for pork, and 1.9 million for poultry.
Poultry meat imports by major importers are projected to increase by 1.5 million tons (21%) between 2012 and 2021. Strong growth in imports is projected for much of the world except, most noticeably, for Russia and the EU (where policies limit imports), and for Japan and Canada.
- Poultry imports by Africa and the Middle East now account for more than 40 percent of imports by the major importers. Income and population growth boosts demand in the projections. In addition, ongoing animal-disease concerns in a number of countries are expected to slow growth in production and to increase demand for imports. As a result, the region’s imports grow more than the rest of the world combined and by 2021 account for nearly 50 percent of world imports.
- Rising consumer incomes increase poultry demand and imports in Mexico and the Central America and Caribbean region. Poultry products remain less expensive than beef or pork, further stimulating demand. Mexico’s domestic poultry production continues to increase during the projection period, but rises at a slower rate than consumption, with the result that imports rise by 0.22 million tons (28 percent).
- Russia’s poultry imports are projected to decline sharply during the next 5 years. The projections assume that Russian policies will restrain poultry imports and stimulate domestic poultry production. Higher poultry prices and slower income growth inhibit per capita poultry consumption and import growth.
- In South Korea, increasing per capita consumption combined with environmental concerns that limit production growth, boost imports by 30 percent during the next decade.
- Because of avian influenza, some major poultry-exporting countries, such as Thailand and China, have shifted most of their exports to fully cooked products, and are projected to continue to do so. Because of higher production costs, these cooked products will be marketed to higher income countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
- China’s rising consumption of poultry meat is met by expanding domestic production. The country’s growth in poultry exports slightly exceeds the increase in imports.
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