USDA International Egg and Poultry
23 May 2012
The suppressed growth is attributed to high feed costs, avian influenza (AI) outbreaks, and ongoing trade disputes. Much of the increase will be provided by Asia (China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Turkey), however AI outbreaks in 7 Asian countries in early 2012 blurs the regions outlook. Bangladesh closed an estimated 6,000 farms since the beginning of 2012 due to AI and feed costs.
Poultry production is expected to be stable in developed countries with slight gains in the EU and reduced outputs from the US in light of falling chick placements. Russia is projected to increase production 6% in 2012 (3.0 MMT) due to 10 new investment projects. Brazil will see an increase of 3% (12.0 MMT), while Mexico will increase 2% (2.9 MMT) as a result of vertical integration and higher priced competing proteins. Despite investments in Africa, high feed costs and rising imports are hindering production in Ghana, Angola, Benin, Congo, and Namibia. Likewise AI outbreaks in Egypt will hamper its domestic production; whereas production in South Africa will continue to increase in 2012 owing to imposed anti-dumping duties on US and Brazilian poultry imports.
World poultry imports are projected to increase 3% in 2012 despite several import trade restrictions. Most of the increase will come from Hong Kong (SAR), Vietnam, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE). However the status of a government fodder subsidy granted to poultry operations in 2011 in Saudi Arabia will influence its imports; the reduction of the subsidy is pushing up poultry prices and stimulating import demand.
Russia, once the largest import market, is expected to increase its imports due to a World Trade Organization (WTO) induced increase in poultry tariff-rate quota. Increased poultry imports to Africa (Egypt, Angola, Benin, and Ghana) are a result of increased domestic demand. Imports now comprise 24% of domestic demand, which is up from 2009 (18%). Imports to Latin America and the Caribbean will be led by Chile, Mexico, and Venezuela. Due to anti-dumping duties imposed on US poultry, China may buy less in 2012; however some of the poultry being shipped to Hong Kong is likely to be re-exported to China. South Africa’s anti-dumping tariffs on Brazilian poultry are expected to negatively influence Brazilian poultry imports. Japan is also projected to import less as a result of increased domestic production.
Despite the slow relisting of plants by Russia, Brazilian poultry exports are expected to increase 2% in 2012 with the help of a more favorable exchange rate. Thailand’s exports are projected to increase in 2012 as a result of the EU’s April 3, 2012 decision to lift an 8-year ban on raw poultry shipments effective July 1, 2012. Shipments by Turkey are forecast to rise after gaining access to the Saudi Arabian marketplace following a 6-year ban. Strong demand from Chile and Venezuela, as well as other regional countries, will continue to support Argentina’s growing poultry exports. Conversely, US exports are projected to grow less than 1% in 2012 due to limited domestic production and more restricted market access. Poultry shipments from the EU in 2012 are also forecast to decline.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Food Outlook, May 2012.
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