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USDA International Egg and Poultry


01 November 2012

USDA International Egg and Poultry: Turkey Meat 2013 Forecast OverviewUSDA International Egg and Poultry: Turkey Meat 2013 Forecast Overview

World production is forecast down 1 percent to 5.4 million tons. Decline in the United States offsets gains in the EU and Brazil. The United States is expected to reduce production as a result of higher feed prices.
USDA International Egg and Poultry

Trade

Global exports are forecast to fall by 3 percent to 649,000 tons as U.S. exports decline due to tighter supplies. Brazilian exports are forecast to increase while EU and Canadian exports are expected to remain steady. Mexico’s imports will likely be affected by tighter supplies of turkey in the United States. Imports by South Africa are forecast to rise as a result of growing consumer demand.

Source: USDA FAS Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade October 2012

Iraq

Production

Poultry production in Iraq in 2012 is expected to be on par with that of 2011 levels. Production increases in the first half of 2012 have been sharply reduced due to high feed prices, disease issues throughout Iraq with greatest severity in the central and southern areas, and high mortality rates. These factors are expected to carry over into 2013. Any potential expansions in domestic production are expected in late 2013, but only in the event that improvements are made in feed availability (i.e. US drought, conflict in Syria), feed costs are lower, and industry successfully addresses disease issues and high mortality rates.

Consumption

Despite flat domestic production and increased poultry imports in 2012, consumption is projected to be 24.2 kilograms per capita, slightly lower than 2011 levels (24.6 kilograms). However the outlook for poultry production and imports remains favorable as Iraq experiences continued economic growth due to oil revenues, gains in personal incomes, and price advantages over higher priced red meats. Prices of imported poultry are expected to be higher in 2013; yet even at these higher levels imported poultry will maintain its price advantage over domestic poultry. As long as domestic production remains flat, rising domestic demand will be satisfied by imports.

Trade

Poultry imports are steadily increasing due to population growth, rising incomes resulting from oil revenues, and its price advantage over red meats. Total imports for 2012, including transshipments through regional countries, are expected to be 603 TMT, up 3% from 2011 (598 TMT). US poultry exports to Iraq in 2012, including transshipments, are expected to decline moderately to 137 TMT from 2011 (160 TMT) due to difficulties with precertification requirements and increased competition from other suppliers (i.e. Turkey). Yet the outlook for US poultry imports remains positive as imports are expected to continue increasing with the growing market.

Yet Iraq’s precertification program continues to be US poultry’s largest obstacle to trade with Iraq. Precertification was proposed by the Ministry of Planning/Central Organization for Standards and Quality Control (COSQC), approved by the Council of Ministers in December 2010, and implemented July 1, 2011. It was enacted to control imports of substandard and unsafe product, a serious problem. Products arriving in the lower 15 provinces in 2011 and 2012 were required to have a certificate of conformity issued. However the northern Kurdish region did not implement precertification for food products, so poultry enters Iraq from Turkey without issue. Precertification has proven to be a major technical barrier to US trade and ineffective in controlling import quality and safety, and has distorted normal trading patterns and routes resulting in increased transshipments to Iraq through regional countries.

Source: USDA FAS Attaché September 13, 2012

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