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USDA International Egg and Poultry


06 March 2013

USDA International Egg and Poultry - 5 March 2013USDA International Egg and Poultry - 5 March 2013


USDA International Egg and Poultry

Meat Exports 1/

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022

The projected growth rates of exports from major exporters of beef, pork, and poultry meat are 2.4%, 1.4%, and 2.0% per year respectively. During this period, exports rise 1.8 million metric tons (MMT) for beef, 0.9 MMT for pork, and 1.9 MMT for poultry. Brazil is expected to continue to be the largest exporter of poultry products due to a combination of competitive production costs and export prices.

Poultry meat imports by major importers are projected to increase by 1.6 MMT (21%) during the projections period, reaching 9 MMT by 2022. Strong import growth is projected for much of the world except, most notably, for Russia (where policies constrain imports), and Japan.

Poultry Imports 1/

Poultry imports by Africa and the Middle East currently account for 45% of imports by the major importers. Income and population growth boosts demand in the projections. In addition, ongoing animal-disease concerns in a number of countries are expected to slow growth in production and to increase demand for imports. As a result, the region’s imports grow more than the rest of the world combined and by 2022 account for 52% of world imports. The Middle East accounts for more than half of the region’s projected increase in imports.

US Red Meat and Poultry Production

 

US Meat Exports

Imports by the Economic Community of West African States grow much more rapidly in percentage terms, but from a small base.

Rising consumer incomes increase poultry demand and imports in Mexico and in the Central America and Caribbean region. Poultry products remain less expensive than beef or pork, further stimulating demand. Mexico’s domestic poultry production continues to increase during the projection period, but rises at a slower rate than consumption, with the result that imports rise by 0.41 MMT (50%).

Russia’s poultry imports are projected to decline steadily. The projections assume that Russian policies will limit poultry imports to stimulate domestic production. High poultry prices and slower income growth inhibit growth in per capita poultry consumption. China’s rising consumption of poultry meat is met by expanding domestic production. The country’s growth in poultry exports slightly exceeds the increase in imports.

Fully cooked products are projected to account for most poultry exports from China and Thailand. With higher unit costs most of these products are marketed to higher income countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. In addition, Thailand’s exports to the EU are expected to rise because trade to that market in uncooked chicken is been reopened.

Global per capita meat consumption continues to increase with poultry consumption rising faster than pork or beef consumption. Growth in world meat consumption is projected to increase about 1.8% per year during 2013-2022 and meat shipments from major exporters rise nearly 2% per year.

After declining in 2012 and 2013, US poultry production rises through the end of the projection period, but at lower rates than in the 1980s and 1990s. Production growth is expected to come from both higher bird numbers and higher average weights at slaughter. Increased demand is expected to strengthen broiler prices, although poultry will face competition from increasing red meat production from 2015 forward. Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022, Office of the Chief Economist, World Agriculture Outlook Board, Long-term Projections Report OCE-2013-1 February 2013.

US Per Capita Meat Consumption

March 2013

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