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USDA International Egg and Poultry


22 May 2013

USDA International Egg and Poultry: ChinaUSDA International Egg and Poultry: China

Since the discovery of Avian Influenza (AI) H7N9 the end of March 2013, 131 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths have been reported to the World Health Organization.
USDA International Egg and Poultry

Avian Influenza H7N9 Update

The reported number of cases has slowed toward the end of April and into May. Several provincial governments have started to normalize their emergency operations into their routine surveillance and response activities. Shanghai, one of the cities ending its emergency operations, will keep its live markets closed.

China Chicken Meat Imports Market Share By Country for 2010
(By Volume)

Source: FAOSTAT, FAO Statistics Division 2013, 19 May 2013

Several of China’s ministries have jointly issued and published a notice intended to minimize the chance of the AI H7N9 virus spreading within and between provinces. Live bird movement in areas where the virus has been found has been temporarily suspended, except for some exceptions for breeding stock. They will also try to discourage purchasing poultry from live markets while encouraging purchases of frozen poultry meat produced from centralized, organized, industrial establishments.

China Turkey Meat Imports Market Share By Country for 2010
(By Volume)

*Canada exported only negligible amounts to China Source: FAOSTAT, FAO Statistics Division 2013, 19 May 2013
Sources: Department of Commerce, US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics/USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service; Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China; Ministry of Agriculture, People’s Republic of China; Rabobank International; The Poultry Site; World Health Organization; various news sources

While the China’s animal sector was weak before the AI H7N9 outbreak, the AI impact has been significant. The China Development Bank, China’s policy lender, has issued 116 million yuan (US$18.7 million) in emergency loans to help poultry firms. Also, China’s government will be issuing 600 million yuan (US$96.7 million in subsides to support poultry processing companies. The poultry industry has lost more than 40 billion yuan (US$6.5 billion).

Total China Turkey Meat Imports & Consumption Versus US Turkey Meat Exports to China
(1,000 Metric Tons)

Sources: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service Official USDA Estimates; Department of Commerce, US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics/USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service

While broiler prices have dropped significantly since early April, prices at the wholesale level appear to be stabilizing. Chicken retail prices, after falling for 7 consecutive weeks, rose 0.1% for the week of May 6-10, 2013 over the previous week.

US Turkey Meat Exports To China January-March Comparisons
(Metric Tons)

Source: Department of Commerce, US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics/USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service

Because of the lower prices breeding stocks have been reduced and many have been forced out of business entirely. The rebuilding process will need several weeks to take effect. Some are forecasting prices to build in June or July and, because of reduced or loss of breeding stocks, could eventually push poultry prices up sharply which might affect the national market.

In 2010, most of China’s chicken meat imports came from Brazil, Argentina and the United States (US). The sluggish China broiler meat market has resulted in US broiler meat exports to China for March, 2013 declining 5% from February 2013. US turkey meat exports to China for March 2013 however, increased 26% from February 2013.

China Turkey Imports

In 2010 The US commanded the majority of China’s turkey meat imports. US January-March, 2013 cumulative total turkey meat exports are 123% over the same time frame for 2012. Meanwhile, total 2012 US turkey meat exports to China are 22% over 2011’s.

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