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USDA International Egg and Poultry


20 November 2013

USDA International Egg and Poultry: Livestock & Poultry - World Markets & TradeUSDA International Egg and Poultry: Livestock & Poultry - World Markets & Trade

For 2014, global poultry production continues to hit new records surging 18% in just 5 years. But perhaps more importantly, the rate of growth is expected to rise for the first time in 4 years on declining costs and price competiveness vis-à-vis other meat proteins.
USDA International Egg and Poultry

Global exports have now expanded by over 25% in the past 5 years, with more than 80% of that growth attributed to Middle Eastern and Sub- Saharan African demand. Non-traditional exporters such as Turkey and Ukraine have a logistical and competitive advantage in those markets vis-à-vis traditional exporters, Brazil and the United States.

Broiler Production & Exports

US production is forecast to increase 3% to a record 17.5 million metric tons (MMT) on lower input costs and greater domestic demand after prolonged supply discipline to maintain margins. Exports are forecast at a record 3.4 MMT with greater exportable supplies and growing demand from Mexico, Iraq and Sub-Saharan Africa.

In Brazil, production is forecast up slightly to a record 13.0 MMT as a result of ample feed supplies. However, domestic consumption is constrained by the high level of consumer debt and competition from beef and pork. Exports remain at a record 3.6 MMT with the weaker Real. Demand from the Middle East has been expanding because Brazilian exporters can supply Halal-certified whole birds unlike other traditional competitors.

Production in India is forecast to rise 6% to 3.6 MMT fueled by escalating demand for animal protein and a rising preference for processed poultry products, an indication of changing tastes and preferences. The US and Brazil continue to seek access to this closed and potentially lucrative market.

In Russia, production has been expanding rapidly to a record 3.3 MMT based on government support to improve genetics, construct new enterprises and modernize existing ones. Government sales of low priced feed grains should reduce costs and help stimulate production. Imports are forecast to decline slightly to 530,000 MT with greater production and falling prices. Exports are up 8% to 65,000 MT driven by stronger demand from Kazakhstan.

China’s production is forecast up slightly to a record 13.7 MMT due to new government subsidies for breeding stock purchases. Although Avian Influenza (AI) reemerged in Hebei and Guangzhou provinces during the summer, consumption is increasing gradually along with confidence in domestic poultry. Exports, primarily to Japan, are expected to remain flat at 415,000 MT. China continues to seek eligibility to export processed poultry products to the US.

Production in the EU is forecast to expand to a record 9.9MMT as a result of greater domestic demand for lower cost supplies of animal protein and reduced feed costs. Exports remain flat at 1.1 MMT. The recent suspension of export refunds for poultry meat is expected to diminish competiveness.

Thailand’s production is forecast to rise by 8% to a record 1.6 MMT due to greater demand and lower feed costs. Despite the recent exit of a major producer and processer (Saha Farm Group), and subsequent price increase, consumption is not expected to be constrained. Exports are up 7% to 580,000 MT on higher demand from Japan and the European Union.

Production in Turkey is forecast up 3% to a record 1.8 MMT and exports are forecast to jump over 20% to 440,000 MT on growing demand from Iraq and other Middle East markets. As a result of a logistical advantage and the ability to supply Halal-certified whole birds, exports have more than quadrupled over the past 5 years.

Mexico’s production is slightly higher at about 3.0 MMT. Continued sector consolidation and improved efficiencies, along with declining feed prices are expected to help offset biosecurity costs related to AI. Imports, mostly from the US, are forecast to expand to 690,000 MT.

In Argentina, production is projected up slightly at a record 2.1 MMT. Lower feed prices and growth in domestic demand will support the expansion. Exports are forecast up 10% to 355,000 MT with greater demand from Venezuela, South Africa and Chile.

Broiler Imports

Saudi Arabia’s imports are forecast to expand to a record 825,000 MT on growing demand for ready-to-cook and processed poultry products, reflecting changes in tastes, preferences and demographics. Yet in Iraq, imports are forecast up 7% to a record 700,000MT with a greater share of the market captured by Turkey at the expense of Brazil and the US.


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