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USDA International Egg and Poultry


03 September 2014

USDA International Egg and Poultry: FAO’s Food Outlook ReportUSDA International Egg and Poultry: FAO’s Food Outlook Report

World meat production is expected to increase 1.1% (3.3 million metric tons (MMT)) to reach 311.8 MMT in 2014. Most of the production increases are predicted to be in developing countries, which is also the source of increasing demand.
USDA International Egg and Poultry

Production

World poultry production is forecast to increase 1.6% to 108.7 MMT in 2014 compared to limited growth in 2013. Most of the growth is expected to come from developed countries. The largest poultry meat producer in the world, the US, is projected to grow 1.8% to a record 20.6 MMT in 2014.

Other major poultry producing countries such as the EU, Brazil, and Mexico will also see some production gains. Russia and India are expected to see larger gains at 8% and 6% respectively. However production in China, the second largest producer, is predicted to decline 1.7% in 2014 as it continues to recover from its 2013 outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza.

Prices

International prices have remained high the past 3 years by historical standards. Poultry and pig meat have benefitted from the lower feed prices unlike bovine and ovine meat, whose prices have remained firm.

Trade

World meat trade is projected to rise 1.4% to reach 31.3 MMT in 2014 or 10% of total production. Growth is expected to be less than average compared to recent years reflecting production constraints for some countries. However poultry and bovine meat are forecast to grow, while pig and ovine meat are projected to decline.

With 45% of total trade, poultry is the leading meat traded followed by bovine, pig, and ovine meat respectively. World poultry meat trading is anticipated to increase 2.4% in 2014. Despite slowed growth in 2012 and 2013 world poultry trade has doubled over the last decade and represents 45% of total world meat trading.

Imports of poultry meat to Africa are projected to increase 4.8% with Angola, Ghana, and Benin being the primary importers due to income growth and stronger demand. However imports by South Africa are expected to remain unchanged.

Asian imports are forecast to increase moderately. Shipments to China and Japan, 2 of the largest buyers in Asia, are expected to remain unchanged due to sufficient domestic production and limited growth in demand. However imports to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE are forecast to see significant increases, especially halal-certified meat imports.

Poultry meat shipments to Europe are anticipated to decline as domestic production increases offset any import growth, especially in Russia and the EU. Russian imports are projected to decline 2% in 2014. Whereas in the Americas, poultry meat imports to Mexico are forecast to rise due to steadily increasing demand.

Brazil, the US, the EU, and China are the 4 largest poultry exporters in the world accounting for 75% of total global poultry trade. Yet these leading exporters have seen limited growth in recent years.

In contrast, significant export growth has been and continues to be projected for Thailand, Turkey, Argentina, Ukraine, and Belarus. Thailand primarily ships boneless poultry cuts and prepared dishes to Japan and the EU. Turkey predominantly ships halal-certified whole birds to the Middle East, in particular Iraq. Argentina’s main export markets include Venezuela, China, South Africa, and various others.

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization the United Nations, “Food Outlook: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets”, May 2014: http://www.fao.org/docrep/019/I3751E/I3751E.pdf

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