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USDA International Egg and Poultry


26 September 2014

USDA International Egg and Poultry - Mexico - 23 SeptemberUSDA International Egg and Poultry - Mexico - 23 September


USDA International Egg and Poultry

Mexico’s Poultry & Egg Situation

Broilers With continued industry consolidation, improved biosecurity measures, and numerous investments Mexico’s broiler meat production is expected to reach 3.01 million metric tons (MMT) in 2015. Production estimates for 2014 were revised downward to 3.0 MMT, while 2013 estimates were unchanged. Challenges with rising production costs mostly associated with high feed costs and increased biosecurity improvements, as well as ongoing minor avian influenza outbreaks and recovery efforts in contained areas persist. Leading broiler meat production states include Jalisco, Veracruz, Durango, and Coahuila.

Broiler meat consumption in 2015 is expected to be 3.73 MMT as poultry meat continues to be the more affordable option of the animal proteins. Consumption estimates for 2014 were revised downward to 3.69 MMT, while 2013 estimates were unchanged. Per capita consumption rates are predicted to see sustained growth in 2015, albeit at a smaller rate. According to the National Poultry Union (UNA), per capita consumption is projected to be 25.5 kilograms (kg) in 2014 and 25.1 kg in 2013. Among the lower income segment of Mexico consumers continue to prefer dark meat items, while the middle and upper income segments prefer the higher value cuts and value added products. Mexico is projected to import 725,000 MT in 2015 and 695,000 MT in 2014; estimates for 2013 are unchanged. Poultry meat imports from the US accounted for 98% of total poultry meat imports in the first 5 months of 2014 with Chile and Canada supplying the remainder.

Although Mexico recently announced the opening of a tariff rate quota (TRQ) for chicken, turkey, and mechanically deboned meat for all trading partners with whom Mexico does not have an existing free trade agreement (FTA), USDA FAS does not foresee Brazil becoming a major competitor for the US in the near-term. On July 31, 2014 Mexico announced a duty-free import quota of 300,000 MT of fresh, chilled, or frozen broiler, turkey meat, and MDM under HTS Codes : 0207.13.01, 0207.14.01, 0207.26.01, 0207.26.99, 0207.27.01, and 0207.27.99. Under NAFTA, US products enter duty-free and are not subject to the TRQ.

Export forecasts for Mexico are expected to be unchanged with 5,000 MT in 2015 and in 2014. Mexican poultry meat exports are generally limited to processed products that have received thermal treatments due to past issues with avian influenza. Turkey Turkey meat production in Mexico is expected to see marginal growth in 2015 and reach 10,000 MT; estimates for 2014 were revised lower to 9,000 MT with 2013 unchanged at 10,000 MT. Production challenges and heavy competition from imports recommends little incentive to expand. About 60% of domestic turkeys are sold raw for processing with the remainder sold for manufacturing, cutting, and smoking. Domestic consumption of whole or smoked turkeys remains seasonal, so imports of MDM turkey meat, either chilled or frozen, to prepare deli meats and related products is anticipated to continue growing.

Whole turkeys continue to be consumed on a mostly seasonalbasis. Turkey meat imports are forecast to increase slightly in 2015 to 167,000 MT. Import forecasts were revised upward for 2014 and 2013 to 166,000 MT and 164,000 MT respectively. Exports of turkey meat have been and continue to be stable with forecasts of 1,000 MT in 2015, 2014, and 2013. The US is the largest export destination of value added products under HTS 1602.31.

Eggs

USDA FAS forecasts Mexican egg production to be 2.6 MMT in 2015. UNA believes domestic flocks have recovered from previous AI outbreaks barring no further outbreaks or reoccurrences could see increases of about 2% annually. UNA forecasts egg production to be 2,559,537 MT in 2014 and 2,509,350 MT in 2013. Yet the domestic egg industry continues to struggle with implementing appropriate biosecurity measures, especially in the way of manure management and facility access. About 80% of domestic production is sold in bulk with the remaining 20% to retail channels. In 2015, per capita egg consumption is expected to reach 2011 levels (22.4 kg) due to stable prices and a full recovery of layer bird numbers. Since 2011 per capita egg consumption has been increasing (20.8 kg 2012, 21.7 kg 2013, 21.9 kg 2014).

Brown eggs are perceived to be of better quality and higher protein content than white eggs. USDA FAS is predicting imports of eggs and egg products to be strong in 2014 and 2015. According to UNA data, Mexico imported 45,254 MT of table eggs and 11,044 MT of egg products in 2013. As of May 2014, data shows Mexico has imported 25,099 MT of both table eggs and egg products. Egg export forecasts remain low due to supply limitations and the closure of foreign markets unless the egg and egg products are pathogen free or have received thermal treatments. Source: USDA FAS Gain Report MX4061

 

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