World trade in fresh and frozen chicken meat expanded by nearly 70 per cent in the decade to 2010, when according to FAO data, exports totalled 11.7 million tonnes. That this is substantially higher than the figure quoted by the USDA for exports of broiler meat of 8.9 million tonnes for that year is primarily because the US figures do not include trade between European member countries. Chicken meat trade expanded again by seven per cent in 2011, bringing the total exported to 12.5 million tonnes (Table 1).

Chicken Meat Exports from the Americas

USDA indicates that broiler meat exports have continued to expand and could come close to 10.4 million tonnes in 2013 and almost 10.8 million tonnes in 2014. However, FAO figures are less optimistic, its data pointing to continued expansion in 2012 but a static situation in 2013, which would indicate chicken meat exports in that year of some 13 million tonnes or so. It should be noted that this does not take into account the trade in prepared/processed chicken meat, which is equivalent to almost 3.0 million tonnes eviscerated weight. Hence, the total quantity of chicken meat currently traded annually is in the region of 16 million tonnes.

The Americas is the world’s number one export region for chicken meat, the total in 2011 of 7.5 million tonnes representing some 60 per cent of the global figure (Table 1). The individual country analysis for 2011 (Table 2) reveals that 93 per cent of the trade was conducted by Brazil and the USA, while some 99 per cent of all exports from the Americas were attributable to just five countries – Brazil, the US, Argentina, Canada and Chile.

Source: FAO

USDA figures present a more recent picture, including forecasts for 2013 and 2014 (Table 3 and Figure 1). These clearly emphasise the dramatic change which has taken place over the past decade or so.

Back in 2000, the US was easily the leading exporter shipping some 2.2 million tonnes, with Brazil in second place - although a long way behind, exporting 870,000 tonnes. But by the mid-point in the decade, Brazil had captured the top spot and has held this position ever since. Although Brazil’s half-year exports in 2013 failed to match 2012 levels, USDA economists postulate that, for the year as a whole, Brazil’s exports could reach a record near 3.6 million tonnes, coming off the back of higher whole bird sales in general, and of chicken parts to China and Hong Kong in particular.

Although Brazil already exports to some 150 markets, sellers are looking to expand exports to Iraq, Egypt and Algeria. The latter has purchased Brazilian processed chicken for some time but apparently is now interested in acquiring conventional chicken. Nigeria is another target market in this region while, in Asia, priority is being given to trade with Indonesia, Malaysia and Cambodia.

In 2012, the leading buyers, according to the Brazilian Poultry Union (UBABEF) were the Middle East taking nearly 1.4 million tonnes, Saudi Arabia (629,000 tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (239,000 tonnes), Egypt (119,000 tonnes), Kuwait (116,000 tonnes) and Iraq (106,000 tonnes).

Saudi Arabia continued to be the leading buyer in the first half of 2013 accounting for 19.5 per cent of total exports, followed by Japan taking 14.2 per cent and the European Union with 8.4 per cent. UBABEF is looking to export more processed products and frozen cuts and is prepared to customise items which, according to the organisation’s Marketing Director, Ricardo Santin, is “often very expensive to do locally”.

For 2014, the USDA postulates that Brazil’s broiler meat exports could amount to 3.63 tonnes (Table 3 and Figure 1). The Brazilian government has forecast that exports of poultry (primarily chicken) could reach 4.8 million tonnes by 2022. Brazil’s exports of chicken paws (not included in the tables), accounted for around 230,000 tonnes in 2012 which, if added to the broiler meat data, would push total exports to some 3.74 million tonnes.

Figure 1. Leading broiler meat exporters in the Americas ('000 tonnes)

United States' broiler exports (excluding paws) are forecast to total nearly 3.4 million tonnes in 2013, rising a shade to a record 3.43 million tonnes in 2014, representing a little below 20 per cent of anticipated production.

In the longer term, US broiler exports are expected to climb to 3.6 million tonnes by 2022. The US is aggressively expanding its sales drive to new markets, trading with just over 150 countries in 2012 compared with 120 countries in 1997.

Back in 2009, just two countries - Russia and China - accounted for more than 40 per cent of US broiler exports.

In 2012, the top four markets accounted for a similar percentage. In that year, the top six markets were Mexico (561,000 tonnes), Hong Kong (296,000 tonnes), Russia (267,000 tonnes), China (240,000 tonnes) Angola (182,000 tonnes) and Canada (173,000 tonnes). Angola and Cuba, two countries that were minor destinations 10 years ago are now major customers taking in 2012, 182,000 tonnes and 151,000 tonnes, respectively.

In September 2013, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) adopted a dispute settlement panel’s report which concluded that China’s imposition of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on US chicken products violated international trade rules. Back in 2009, the year before China imposed the duties, the US exported more than 613,000 tonnes of broiler meat to this market. Long-term forecasts do not project a significant increase in purchases by China. However, there is a view that it is unlikely that China will be able to meet the growing demand for certain broiler products domestically and hence exports to this market may exceed expectations.

Jim Sumner, president of the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council (USAPEEC) sees export opportunities, especially for low-priced chicken leg quarters, in developing countries, particularly in Africa. Back in 1997 when US exports amounted to two million tonnes, leg quarters represented 27 per cent of sales while of the 3.3 million tonnes shipped in 2012, leg quarters accounted for 50 per cent.

In addition to the 3.3 million tonnes of broiler meat exported, the US shipped 364,000 tonnes of chicken paws, which was five per cent up on the previous year but 23 per cent down on the 474,000 tonnes shipped in 2009. Of the 2012 total, 193,000 tonnes went to Hong Kong while China took 135,000 tonnes. However, this latter market purchased 377,000 tonnes of paws back in 2009.

Although well behind Brazil and the US in volume terms, Argentina has become a force on the export scene. In 2000, this country shipped only 11,000 tonnes but in the past half dozen years, its trade has expanded rapidly from 125,000 tonnes in 2007 to 291,000 tonnes in 2012 while it is anticipated that in 2013 and 2014, exports could reach 323,000 tonnes and 355,000 tonnes, respectively.

Currently, the main customers are Venezuela, Chile and South Africa. However, in mid-2013, Argentina hosted a delegation from China’s General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ), which audited companies that wished to export to this market.

Chicken Meat Imports

Chicken meat imports into countries in the Americas escalated by one million tonnes in the 10 years to 2010, reaching 1.5 million tonnes (Table 4).

- no figure
Source: FAO

Although Canada - with purchases averaging around 140,000 tonnes between 2007 and 2010 - and Cuba (about 160,000 tonnes a year) are significant importers, the region’s most important buyer by far is Mexico, receipts having expanded from 212,000 tonnes in 2000 to 564,000 tonnes in 2011 (Table 4).

Since then, according to USDA figures, Mexico’s broiler imports climbed to 616,000 tonnes in 2012, representing around 17 per cent of Mexico’s total supplies. In 2012, more than 90 per cent of imports came from the US.

For 2013 and 2014, purchases of 675,000 tonnes and 690,000 tonnes, respectively, are anticipated. Rising consumer incomes will increase poultry demand in Mexico and, as domestic production is not expected to keep pace with the increase in consumption, a 50 per cent rise is anticipated as imports of poultry meat (broilers and turkeys) reach 1.2 million tonnes by 2022.

Back in 2005, Russia was the largest market for US chicken purchasing some 820,000 tonnes from this source out of total imports of 1.3 million tonnes. Since then annual imports into the Russian Federation have slumped to less than 400,000 tonnes, as a result of an expansion in domestic production stimulated by government support, and are forecast to contract further to around 200,000 tonnes by 2022.

On 1 August 2013 the European Union lifted trade barriers with Colombia, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama, which will open up the markets between the EU and these Latin American countries.

January 2014