GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Chicken Meat Consumption Exceeds Global Average in the Americas29 January 2014
Poultry uptake is forecast to rise faster than pork and beef worldwide in the coming decade, according to industry analyst, Terry Evans in this final part of his examination of trends in the broiler industry in the Americas, where chicken meat consumption is generally well above the global average.
Global meat consumption continues to rise and is projected according to the OECD-FAO’s 2013 Agricultural Outlook to increase by around 1.6 per cent a year from 2013 to 2022, down from 2.3 per cent in the previous decade. However, poultry meat uptake per person will increase faster than that for pork and beef as, based on these forecasts, poultry consumption will rise by some nine per cent between 2013 and 2022, compared with gains of three to four cent for beef and pig meat respectively.
World population growth is slowing being expected to increase by about 1 per cent per year over the period 2012-2022 compared with 1.2 per cent for the years 2001-2010. Between 2000 and 2030 the global human population will likely expand by nearly 2,200 million (Table 1). Asia will be responsible for over half this increase, while Africa will account for 34 per cent. The Americas will make up 12 per cent of the gain, leaving Europe and Oceania to contribute little more than 1 per cent.
|Table 1. Human population of the world's regions (millions)|
There are no direct measurements of poultry meat consumption, the figures being derived from estimates of production adjusted for trade changes, divided by estimates of the human population. Consequently, although the data is frequently expressed in decimal points of a kilogramme, too much attention should not be paid to small differences from year to year. Nevertheless, the data in Table 2/10 gives a guide to consumption trends on a per person basis.
|Table 2. Poultry meat consumption in the world's regions (kg/person/year)|
While in 2009 the human populations of Africa and the Americas were broadly similar at 999 million and 925 million respectively, because average poultry meat consumption in the Americas, at almost 36 kg per person compared with just 5.5kg in Africa, the total volume of poultry meat consumed in the Americas, at around 33.2 million tonnes, was six times the 5.5 million tonnes eaten in Africa. However, the potential for expanding consumption per person in the Americas is nowhere near as great as in Africa. Also, with regard to the total quantities eaten, while the population in Africa by 2020 will have increased by 25 per cent when compared with 2010, for the Americas the respective figure is only 10 per cent.
Figure 1 showing the trends in consumption per person, indicates that by 2014 average uptake in the Americas should exceed 40kg compared with a global figure of around 15kg. In broad terms chicken meat uptake is around 88 per cent of the poultry meat figure putting the average for the Americas at around 34kg, as against the global figure at 13kg.
The individual country data on poultry meat uptake throughout the Americas from 2000 to 2009 (Table 3) reveals a healthy level throughout the region with some 23 of the 50 or so countries recording uptakes of more than 30kg per person in 2009, while only a handful recorded an average of less than 20kg.
Along with population increases, economic growths, particularly among developing countries, and a reduction in the cost of chicken and hence relative prices when compared with its competitors, are key factors stimulating demand.
|Table 3. Human population of the Americas and poultry meat consumption|
|Human population||Poultry meat consumption|
|British Virgin Isl.||#||#||#||#||-||-||-||-|
|US Virgin Isl.||0.1||0.1||0.1||0.1||-||-||-||-|
|Venezuela Bol. Rep.||24.4||29.0||31.2||33.3||28.5||34.1||32.5||36.2|
# less than 50,000, - no figure
Broiler consumption in the US plummeted from a record 46kg per person in 2006 to 42kg in 2009 on a carcass weight basis. Uptake then recovered to almost 44kg in 2011 but then slipped back to 42.5kg in the following year. For 2013, an increase to 43.2kg is envisaged, while a further substantial rise to 44.2kg is anticipated for 2014, as consumers switch away from beef to chicken. By 2022, disappearance is projected to reach 45.3kg per person.
Economic growth in Brazil is expected to exhibit some recovery in 2013, which could be reflected in an increased demand and consumption per person of chicken. Less expensive feed should eventually lead to lower poultry prices but there is concern that a high level of consumer debt might impact adversely on the demand for meat in general. The latest forecast for 2013 points to an increase in domestic consumption of only one1 per cent.
The outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Mexico do not appear to have had a significant adverse impact on domestic broiler production and output in 2013 seems likely to show a small 0.5 per cent gain over last year. After allowing for a small increase in imports, total available supplies may rise by around one per cent. Thus, while total chicken consumption should increase, uptake when expressed on a per person basis is likely to stagnate.
This is not only a reflection of the rise in supplies when related to the population increase, but also, according to a USDA GAIN Report, because some consumers are switching to other protein sources in order to diversify their diets. Consumption reflects the relationship between the income status of households on the one hand and the prices for broilers and competitive meats on the other. Among low-income households dark meat, such as chicken leg quarters, is preferred. Consequently the higher value cuts and added - value items are mainly purchased by the middle and high-income groups.
As demand is income-elastic, improvements in real incomes will provide a positive stimulus to chicken meat purchases. The Gain Report states 'Mexican consumers are increasingly looking for healthy sources of proteins at affordable prices'. Hence, processors in Mexico and the US are endeavouring to develop low-cost nutritious products which are tailored to Mexican tastes.
According to the report, 'Mexican processors are targeting the growing need for ready-to-eat products demanded by national and regional supermarket chains.' While these value-added products tend be prepared from imported meat, the industry is increasing the production of high-value poultry meat items for the local market using both imported and locally-produced poultry ingredients. According to the report, processed poultry products, other than sausages and ham, are considered to offer the highest potential for growth.
Worldwide chicken consumption is forecast to continue to increase for the foreseeable future as the global demand for inexpensive proteins increases, particularly among developing countries as a result of population growth and rising consumer incomes.