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GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Asia Accounts for a Third of Chicken Meat Output

08 October 2015

Global Poultry Trends 2012

Although the forecast growth for poultry meat production to 2024 has been revised downwards from 2.25 per cent per year to 2.0 per cent by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in conjunction with the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), global poultry meat production will still become the largest meat sector in 2021, writes poultry market analyst Terry Evans.

By 2024 output is forecast to amount to almost 134 million tonnes, which compares with a little under 129 million tonnes for pig meat, 75 million tonnes for beef and veal and 17 million tonnes for sheep meat.

For 2015 the FAO forecasts world poultry meat production to amount to almost 112 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of only 1.4 per cent on 2014 and contrasting markedly with an annual growth rate of some three per cent in the previous 10 years.

According to FAO’s Food Outlook Report, while falling feed prices have stimulated growth in many countries, industry challenges, and particularly in China where concerns over avian influenza have caused poultry demand to stagnate, have applied a brake to expansion. Consequently, the FAO considers that poultry meat production in China will be unchanged this year at around 18.5 million tonnes.

As a generalisation, chicken meat represents between 88-89 per cent of global poultry meat production.

Reference to table 1 shows that, during the period 2000 to 2013, chicken meat output grew at almost four per cent per year from 58.7 million tonnes to 96.3 million tonnes.

Table 1: Indigenous* chicken meat production (million tonnes)
Region20002005200620072008200920102011201220132014E2015F
Africa 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9
Americas 27.1 32.7 33.7 35.0 37.5 36.9 38.8 40.0 40.5 42.1 42.8 43.4
Asia 18.6 22.4 23.5 25.0 26.2 28.0 29.2 30.3 31.6 32.2 32.1 32.7
Europe 9.5 10.9 10.8 11.6 12.1 13.3 13.9 14.6 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.7
Oceania 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3
WORLD 58.7 70.3 72.3 76.2 80.7 83.4 87.4 90.6 93.3 96.3 97.5 99.0
Broiler meat production (million tonnes)
WORLD 50.1 63.1 64.3 68.3 72.8 73.6 78.2 81.4 83.4 84.6 86.4 87.3
*Meat from the slaughter of birds originating in a country, plus the meat equivalent of any such birds exported live.
E 2014 and F 2015 author's estimates and forecasts for chicken meat, F 2015 USDA forecast for broiler meat.
Regional figures may not add up to the world totals due to rounding.
Sources: FAO for chicken meat, USDA for broiler meat.

From 2000 to 2015 the rate of increase looks to have been around 3.6 per cent, slowing to 2.5 per cent between 2010 and 2015, while the rise this year over 2014 could well be just 1.5 per cent.

As a result, it looks as though chicken meat output in 2015 will amount to around 99 million tonnes, while 100 million tonnes is sure to be surpassed in 2016.

Production in Africa is close to 5 million tonnes a year, while for the Americas it looks certain to exceed 43 million tonnes this year.

Output in Asia is approaching 33 million tonnes, while in Europe the total is close to 17 million tonnes. It should be noted that these chicken meat figures include estimates for commercial and backyard production plus the meat from culled layers.

The number of chickens killed in 2013 totalled almost 61,300 million which was 20,664 million (51 per cent) more than the 40,634 million slaughtered in 2000. For Asia the corresponding figures were 25,127 million and 14,687 million showing a rise of 10.4 million (71 per cent).

Eviscerated weights improved over the review period, the global average rising from 1.44 to 1.57kg per bird. The relevant figures for Asia showed just a small increase from 1.26 to 1.28kg. Putting these figures into perspective the average for the Americas went up from 1.67kg to 1.98kg per bird.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) makes estimates of what it considers to be broiler meat production in selected countries. Their world totals approximate to between 88-89 per cent of global chicken meat production. For 2015 their forecast is 87.3 million tonnes (Table 1).

Chicken meat production in Asia expanded by 4.3 per cent per year from 18.6 million tonnes in 2000 to 32.2 million tonnes in 2013 (Tables 1 and 2 and figure 1). During this period this region increased its share of the global total from 31.7 per cent to 33.4 percent. In 2013 Asia had ten countries producing more than a million tonnes of chicken meat a year (Table 3), their combined output totalling almost 27 million tonnes, which represented 84 per cent of the regional figure. Back in 2000 this group accounted for 82 per cent of national output.

Table 2: Indigenous chicken meat production in Asia ('000 tonnes eviscerated weight)
Country2000200520092010201120122013
Afghanistan 13.2 30.4 20.0 24.9 21.8 23.9 23.7
Armenia 0.4 3.9 2.9 4.9 4.3 5.6 5.5
Azerbaijan 16.2 31.8 65.6 62.8 69.1 86.8 95.0
Bahrain 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 6.3
Bangladesh 92.9 129.9 156.0 160.1 165.2 170.6 171.9
Bhutan 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Brunei Darussalam 10.5 7.5 18.9 20.0 22.1 23.0 25.7
Cambodia 19.5 17.2 22.9 19.5 18.9 18.9 17.4
China, Hong Kong - - - - - - -
China, Macao 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2
China, mainland 8426.9 9399.3 11170.9 11598.5 11968.5 12629.2 12790.8
China, Taiwan Prov 630.6 554.7 541.5 557.7 588.9 543.7 554.5
Cyprus 31.6 32.8 27.0 26.9 26.7 24.8 23.4
Georgia 13.9 16.2 11.2 10.2 10.7 10.1 8.5
India 865.4 1403.1 2086.8 2193.1 2235.1 2277.9 2328.3
Indonesia 806.6 1125.1 1404.4 1539.5 1664.8 1734.0 1837.8
Iran Isl Rep 804.0 1245.9 1997.5 1875.4 1913.5 1956.3 1962.3
Iraq 73.7 84.1 33.1 48.2 81.6 84.8 85.6
Israel 270.1 369.8 435.6 449.4 458.2 481.7 442.5
Japan 1193.0 1271.1 1412.4 1415.6 1376.5 1443.1 1448.5
Jordan 118.1 132.2 154.8 188.4 191.9 191.7 197.5
Kazakhstan 32.9 43.7 73.1 98.5 96.5 114.7 127.5
Korea Dem Peo Rep 26.8 35.8 31.9 31.9 31.9 33.0 33.0
Korea Rep 373.3 483.6 550.4 587.6 616.2 597.5 615.5
Kuwait 31.1 31.4 40.9 40.3 38.6 39.6 40.1
Kyrgyzstan 4.6 5.4 4.0 4.0 6.0 5.9 6.0
Lao Peo Dem Rep 9.6 15.4 17.4 19.3 19.9 20.3 20.3
Lebanon 104.2 121.3 128.6 78.4 93.2 98.5 83.5
Malaysia 713.9 916.1 1129.8 1213.9 1249.8 1285.0 1367.4
Mongolia 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Myanmar 212.4 560.4 922.9 1015.6 1078.7 1079.7 1081.9
Nepal 12.6 15.3 16.5 16.5 36.1 40.3 42.8
Occ Pal Ter 68.3 65.0 47.3 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0
Oman 4.2 5.8 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.0
Pakistan 327.3 385.4 650.3 706.0 768.0 834.3 908.8
Philippines 531.8 648.6 826.0 868.2 920.6 984.3 1046.4
Qatar 4.2 5.3 7.3 7.3 9.2 9.8 10.0
Saudi Arabia 482.1 536.5 566.6 576.8 576.3 572.3 581.3
Singapore - - - - - - -
Sri Lanka 62.7 96.7 99.0 102.0 102.1 102.8 106.0
Syrian Arab Rep 106.0 160.4 182.2 188.9 177.2 150.5 142.1
Tajikstan 0.1 0.1 4.2 0.1 1.7 7.0 0.8
Thailand 1051.0 1006.6 1152.0 1218.9 1241.4 1319.1 1377.9
Timor - Leste 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
Turkey 634.9 943.2 1317.9 1449.2 1613.4 1724.0 1758.5
Turkmenistan 6.0 14.0 19.5 19.5 20.0 21.0 21.3
United Arab Emirates 25.0 34.3 37.8 39.6 40.5 41.1 42.3
Uzbekistan 15.7 20.9 24.1 25.9 30.0 29.3 32.3
Viet Nam 294.5 320.9 526.9 454.8 492.1 523.7 527.7
Yemen 65.2 112.3 137.7 143.7 149.1 151.0 150.6
ASIA 18590.0 22442.3 28084.3 29163.0 30286.6 31552.2 32209.6
- less than 50 tonnes
Source: FAO

 

Table 3: Indigenlous chicken meat production ranking in Asia in 2013 ('000 tonnes)
China, mainland12790.8
India 2328.3
Iran Isl Rep 1962.3
Indonesia 1837.8
Turkey 1758.5
Japan 1448.5
Thailand 1377.9
Malaysia 1367.4
Myanmar 1081.9
Philippines 1046.4
Pakistan 908.8
Korea Rep 615.5
Saudi Arabia 581.3
China, Taiwan Prov 554.5
Viet Nam 527.7
Israel 442.5
Jordan 197.5
Bangladesh 171.9
Yemen 150.6
Syrian Arab Rep 142.1
Kazakhstan 127.5
Sri Lanka 106.0
Azerbaijan 95.0
Iraq 85.6
Lebanon 83.5
Occ Pal Ter 52.0
Nepal 42.8
United Arab Emirates 42.3
Kuwait 40.1
Korea Dem Peo Rep 33.0
Uzbekistan 32.3
Brunei Darussalam 25.7
Afghanistan 23.7
Cyprus 23.4
Turkmenistan 21.3
Lao Peo Dem Rep 20.3
Cambodia 17.4
Qatar 10.0
Georgia 8.5
Bahrain 6.3
Oman 6.0
Kyrgyzstan 6.0
Armenia 5.5
China, Macao 1.2
Timor - Leste 0.8
Tajikstan 0.8
Bhutan 0.4
Mongolia 0.1
Source: FAO
Global Poultry Trends Asia 1
Figure 1. Asia accounts for a third of world chicken meat output (million tonnes).

This ranking of chicken meat producing countries not surprisingly places mainland China as the leader with an output of 12.8 million tonnes in 2013 or almost 40 per cent of the regional total. According to FAO estimates on poultry meat output, production in China this year will be identical to 2014.

However, the broiler output data presented by the USDA (Table 4 and figures 2 and 3) indicate a production cutback in China in 2013 and 2014, but a small recovery in 2015. Of note is that these figures have been consistently higher than the FAO’s chicken meat data, which underscores the point that statistical series often differ in absolute terms according to source, though usually the trends over time are similar.

Table 4: Leading broiler meat producers in Asia ('000 tonnes)
Country200020052006200720082009201020112012211320142015F
China 9269 10200 10350 11291 11840 12100 12550 13200 13700 13350 13080 13110
India 1080 1900 2000 2240 2490 2550 2650 2900 3160 3450 3725 3900
Turkey 662 978 946 1012 1170 1250 1420 1619 1707 1924 1956 1990
Thailand 1070 950 1100 1050 1170 1200 1280 1350 1550 1500 1570 1640
Indonesia 804 1126 1260 1295 1350 1409 1465 1515 1540 1550 1565 1625
Malaysia 730 980 1035 1100 1163 1202 1296 1334 1375 1416 1440 1460
Japan 1091 1166 1258 1250 1255 1283 1295 1252 1326 1337 1360 1360
F forecast
Chicken paws are excluded, - no figure
Source: USDA
Global Poultry TRends Asia 2
Figure 2. India's broiler industry has shown the fastest growth, closely followed by Turkey.
Global Poultry Trends Asia 3
Figure 3. Broiler production in China has slowed in recent years (million tonnes)

The second largest producer in the region is India. This country’s industry has escalated at around a massive eight per cent per year as output has climbed from 865,000 tonnes in 2000 to 2.3 million tonnes in 2013.

Although the rate of expansion latterly appears to have slowed down, the USDA broiler figures still point to a growth of more than six per cent per year since 2013 (Figure 4), a rate which it is anticipated will be maintained at least until 2018.

Global Poultry Trends Asia 4
Figure 4. India's industry has shown rapid growth (million tonnes).

According to the FAO and also other official sources, the Islamic Republic of Iran is the third biggest producer of chicken meat in Asia output having risen from just over 800,000 tonnes in 2000 to almost 2 million tonnes in 2013.

Turkey’s industry has also developed rapidly recording growth of well above seven per cent per year between 2000 and this year when production will come close to 2 million tonnes (Figure 5).

Global Poultry Trends  Asia 5
Figure 5. Broiler production in Tukey is close to 2 million tonnes a year.

Thailand’s broiler industry suffered a massive setback in 2004 (Table 4 and figure 6) when, following an outbreak of highly pathogen avian influenza (HPAI), its frozen chicken exports were banned from several countries. Consequently, production slumped by some 440,000 tonnes or 33 per cent. However, by switching to the production of processed chicken products the industry has since been able to show steady growth such that a record output of more than 1.6 million tonnes is forecast for this year.

Global Poultry Trends Asia 6
Figure 6. Thailand's recovery is well under way (milllion tonnes).

The industries in both Indonesia and Malaysia have doubled in size since 2000, though expansion in recent years has been small.

In contrast to the other leading producers, Japan’s industry increased by only 1.5 per year during the review period (Figure 7) with output this year expected to be similar to last year.

Global Poultry Trends Asia 7
Figure 7. Little growth in broiler production in Japan (million tonnes).

According to the FAO, chicken meat output in the Philippines exceeded a million tonnes in 2013, while the USDA data indicates that broiler production amounted to some 827,000 tonnes in that year and is expected to rise to 900,000 tonnes in 2015.

October 2015

 



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