CME: August Corn Yield Estimate Expected to be High
US - USDA will release yet another highly anticipated Crop Production report (and the accompanying World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates or WASDE) on 12 August, report Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.
10 August 2009
2 minute read
The August report is the first of the crop year that uses objective data to predict yields. In addition, USDA has "re-surveyed" many areas regarding corn and soybean acreage following the July Acreage report that surprised almost everyone with the number of estimated corn acres. So, this year’s August report has a bit more intrigue than normal. Results of Dow Jones’ monthly survey of grain market analysts appear in the table below.
| Average | Range | USDA, July | 2008 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Billion Bushels) | ||||
| Corn Crop | 12.472 | 11.792 - 12.814 | 12.290 | 12.101 |
| Soybean Crop | 3.213 | 3.000 - 3275 | 3.260 | 2.959 |
| Wheat Crop, All | 2.150 | 2.086 - 2.238 | 2.112 | 2.500 |
| (Bushels per Acre) | ||||
| Corn Yield | 157.1 | 153.0 - 160.3 | 153.4 | 153.9 |
| Soybean Yield | 42.1 | 40.9 - 43.5 | 42.6 | 39.6 |
As a group, analysts expect the corn yield estimate to be higher than that of July while they expect USDA to reduce the soybean yield slightly. Readers should note that the 153 bushel per acre estimate that marks the bottom of the range of corn yield estimate is perhaps an outlier — the next closest estimate was 155.6 bushels per acre. Analysts also expect USDA to slightly raise its estimate of the 2009 wheat crop.
