In its latest 'Agricultural Commodities' report for the December quarter, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasts a continuation in the recent gradual improvement in the poultry sector.

Using 1997-98 as the basis year (100), poultry slaughter prices have been rising gradually since a low point in 2011-12 of 108.3. The estimate for 2013-14 is 115.4 and for 2014-15, the forecast is 116.1.

Egg prices have followed a similar pattern, with a low of 104.2 from 2010 to 2012. The estimated index for 2013-14 was 112.7 and the forecast for 2014-15 is 115.8.

The 2013-14 estimated gross value for poultry meat is A$2.92 per kilo, with a one cent reduction forecast for 2014-15, thus slightly exceeding the level at the start of the study period (2009-10).

Production of poultry meat (carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meat) in Australia made a sharp jump in 2010-11 to 1.015 million tonnes from 834,000 tonnes the year before. Since then, output has climbed slowly to reach as estimated 1.084 million tonnes in 2013-14. The forecast for 2014-15 is 1.130 million tonnes.

The gross value of this output reflects both the growing production and higher prices so for poultry meat, it has risen each year from A$1.785 billion in 2009-10 to an estimated A$2.314 billion in 2013-14 and the forecast for 2014-15 is A$2.442 billion.

The same pattern has been followed in the value of egg production, which is estimated to reach A$670 million in 2013-14 with annual increases since A$428 million in 2009-10. The forecast for 2014-15 stands at A$690 million.

Exports of poultry meat (fresh, chilled and frozen) are expected to have reached 37,000 tonnes in 2013-14 and ABARES' forecast for 2014-15 is 42,000 tonnes. The values of those exports are A$50 million and A$58 million, respectively.