2015 Grain Harvest to Take Bronze

GLOBAL – World grain production is expected to come in at 1,970m tonnes – the third largest harvest ever.
calendar icon 4 August 2015
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Wheat and maize are expected to retreat from last year’s peaks and oilseed is to slide 13 per cent, resulting in a two per cent contraction on last year’s production, forecasts the International Grains Council.

Some “unfavourable weather” has trimmed 2015/16 harvest expectations in some regions, owing largely to less wheat and barley.

The IGC expects wheat and barley trade to be contained by larger local supplies in North Africa and Near East Asia, although a new peak is predicted for maize production and sorghum could soar to 30 year highs.

Soybeans will fall two per cent after productivity challenges in key regions. This is despite harvested area expanding marginally this year.

Feed demand is predicted to remain close to last year’s record high and food use is tipped to rise, matching population expansion.

An IGC spokesperson said: “Unfavourable weather has reduced crop prospects in some regions, especially in the EU (wheat and maize (corn)) and Canada (wheat, barley and oats), but this is outweighed by gains elsewhere, mainly for maize in China and sorghum in the US.

“The consumption forecast is adjusted only marginally m/m, and given higher production and opening inventories, the global carryover stocks projection is boosted by 13m t, to 435m, modestly lower y/y (year-on-year).

“With maize lifted to a new peak and sorghum to around a 30-year high, world trade is raised 2m t m/m, to 312m, down 3 per cent from the 2014/15 record.”

Michael Priestley

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