USDA's Double Punch: Production Up, Exports Down

ANALYSIS - USDA added to their 2015 chicken production forecast and lowered exports in Friday's World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.
calendar icon 13 October 2015
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“With a moderate expansion in production this year and exports now running about 20 per cent under last year, the US consumer will be forced to deal with 6 per cent more chicken than last year,” said Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc. chief strategist.

As exports are dominated by lower value products, there will continue to bean excess of dark meat at the grocery counter. The picture for 2016 is still not expected to show any improvement.

“USDA lowered their production estimate for chicken but are still 2.2 per cent higher than last year,” Nelson said. “This is higher than Allendale’s current estimate of a 1.5 per cent increase.”

In recent weeks, egg sets have been steady to a little lower than last year. Nelson expects USDA to lower their numbers in the coming months.

Broiler production is raised for 2015 as a larger third quarter level more than offsets a reduction for the fourth quarter, but the forecast for 2016 is reduced as broiler producers have slowed the pace of egg sets.

Turkey production for 2015 is lowered based on third-quarter production data; subsequent quarters through 2016 are unchanged. Egg production for 2015 is raised on higher third quarter hatching egg production. Production forecasts for 2016 are unchanged.

Broiler exports are reduced from last month as slow global demand is expected to continue for in the remainder of the year and into 2016.

Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 on relatively large broiler meat supplies. Turkey prices are raised for 2015 on current price strength, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged from last month. Egg prices for 2015 are lowered reflecting recent price declines, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged.

Sarah Mikesell


Sarah Mikesell grew up on a five-generation family farming operation in Ohio, USA, where her family still farms. She feels extraordinarily lucky to get to do what she loves - write about livestock and crop agriculture. You can find her on Twitter or LinkedIn.

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