Low Prices Stimulate Poultry Meat Import Demand as Trade Forecast to Rise

GLOBAL - Modest growth is foreseen for poultry meat production in 2016, with output forecast to rise by 1.1 per cent to 116.2 million tonnes, according to the latest Food Outlook report from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations.
calendar icon 4 August 2016
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Substantial expansion is anticipated in the US and Brazil, as well as greater production in the EU, India, the Russian Federation, Argentina, Mexico and Canada – along with most other countries.

Rising demand and sustained low feed costs have provided the basis for increased output. At the same time, China may experience a production fall, provisionally estimated at 5 per cent, due to lacklustre consumer demand.

Trade prohibitions on countries with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have also hindered the sector’s growth in China by curtailing access to replacement broiler breeding stock.

In the US, the principal producer, outbreaks of HPAI dampened the sector’s expansion in 2015. The reappearance of the disease in a single area of Indiana in January 2016 rekindled concern, with the affected part of the State not being declared disease free until the beginning of May.

Trade in poultry meat in 2016 is expected to increase by 3.5 per cent to 12.7 million tonnes. Since reaching a peak in mid-2014, poultry prices have declined steadily. For example, in May 2016, they were 16 per cent below their level of a year earlier.

Prevailing low international prices and rising domestic consumption have been important factors in stimulating import demand in a number of markets including Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Japan, Viet Nam, Cuba and the United Arab Emirates.

Further Reading

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