Russia's wheat exports expected to rise in 2022/23

Analyst points to large crop and stockpiles
calendar icon 19 May 2022
clock icon 2 minute read

Russia, one of the world's largest wheat exporters, will export more of the grain in the new July-June marketing season due to a large harvest and stockpile, reported Reuters, citing IKAR consultancy on Wednesday, raising its estimate for the wheat crop.

Russia, which competes mainly with the European Union and Ukraine for wheat supplies to the Middle East and Africa, has been limiting its grain exports with taxes and an export quota since 2021 amid efforts to slow domestic food inflation.

Russia has the potential to export 39 million tonnes of wheat in the 2022/23 marketing season, which starts on 1 July, Dmitry Rylko, the head of IKAR, told a conference in Geneva.

In the current 2021/22 season, IKAR, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, expects Russia's wheat exports at 32.0-32.5 million tonnes.

The country's 2022 wheat crop, which is due to arrive this summer, is expected to reach 85 million tonnes, Rylko said, in what he called a "conservative" estimate. He previously expected a harvest of 83.5 million tonnes.

The current state export quota, which Russia tends to set for February-June each season, will expire on 30 June. The tax, which the agriculture ministry sets on a weekly basis, will remain.

Exports from Russia are crucial for the global wheat supply and demand balance, especially in the upcoming season as Ukraine's Black Sea ports remain blocked after Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on 24 February.

Asked about the possibility of an export ban from Russia at the conference, Rylko said that it was very unlikely as the country would have a large crop and record-high carry-over stocks.

"Russia's strategic goal now is to ensure uninterrupted exports of what may be a massive harvest," Rylko said.

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