USDA adjusts table-egg production forecast down

Slow growth and avian influenza cited as cause for adjustment
calendar icon 29 December 2022
clock icon 1 minute read

According to the most recent USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) poultry and egg outlook report, the forecast for broiler production, cold storage levels, and exports have been adjusted up on strong recent data. 

Broiler price forecasts, on the other hand, remain unchanged. 

The table-egg production forecast for the fourth quarter also remains unchanged, while the 2023 forecast is revised downward due to slow growth in the layer flock and new late-November highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) discoveries. 

Both 2022 and 2023 average wholesale egg price (New York, Grade A, large) forecasts are revised upward due to higher-than-expected strength in fall prices. The fourth- quarter total egg export forecast is increased, while the import forecast is decreased due to recent trade data and the overall HPAI impact on global supply. 

Forecast turkey production is adjusted upward in the fourth quarter on recent production data but revised downward in 2023, reflecting recent losses due to HPAI. Turkey exports are unchanged, while forecast imports of both turkey and broilers are increased on strong shipments from Chile. Projected turkey prices are adjusted downward slightly in the fourth quarter but unchanged for 2023.

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