After a notable chicken meat production decline in 2022, the Ukrainian poultry industry is expected to make a limited recovery in 2023-24, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) GAIN report. 

All war-related production factors are expected to remain in place: the industry will face increasing production costs, energy shortage, domestic consumption decline due to the refugee crisis, and logistical export problems. Low feed costs are the industry’s saving grace. 

Although the production is higher, it is not expected to return to pre-war levels. Most of Ukraine’s poultry production is for the domestic market, and poultry will remain the cheapest protein available to the population. Domestic demand will continue to be strong despite the drop in disposable income. 

Ukraine exports around one-third of its poultry production, and exports will remain significant and increase as production rebounds. Due to continued trade regime liberalization, the EU will replace the Middle East as Ukraine’s major export destination market in 2023.