USDA lifts broiler output forecast on strong hatch, low feed
Prices ease as production, exports rise through 2026
7 October 2025
3 minute read
By: Projected broiler production for 2025 and 2026 is increased on strong hatchery data and lower projected feed costs, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for September. Projected imports and exports of broilers are both adjusted higher in 2025. Wholesale broiler price projections are adjusted down in 2025 and 2026 on recent price trends and increased production expectations.
Broiler production in July totalled 4,146 million pounds, an increase of 1.8% year over year. Total slaughter in July was up 0.9% over the same month in 2024, and live broiler weights averaged 6.59 pounds, up 1.2% year over year. The production total for June 2025 was also revised up, resulting in a new second quarter total of 11,885 million pounds. Most indicators for broiler production are also positive.
Broiler-type chicks hatched in July totalled 880.4 million, up 1.2% year over year. Average weights have continued their upward trend, and preliminary weekly slaughter data for August was increased over the same time last year. In addition, declining corn prices are helping to reduce feed costs. The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projects an average farm price for corn of $3.90 per bushel for the 2025/26 marketing year (September through August), down 40 cents from the 2024/25 estimate.
The only exception to the positivity amongst broiler production indicators is the size of the broiler parent flock, which has been smaller year over year throughout 2025. However, the average lay rate of the flock is increasing. In July, it was 63.6 eggs per 100 layers per day, up 1.5% from the same month last year. The improved efficiency of these layers contributed to the above-average supply of hatched broiler chicks this year.
Reflecting continued strength in hatch numbers, as well as strong preliminary data in August, projections for the outlying quarters of 2025 were adjusted up to 12,300 million pounds in the third quarter and 12,175 million pounds in the fourth quarter. In total, projected production for 2025 is adjusted up to 47,925 million pounds, an increase of 2% over 2024. Projected production for the first quarter of 2026 is unchanged at 11,800 million pounds, which would also be an increase of 2% percent year over year. The outlying quarters’ production projections were adjusted upward to reflect the expectation of favorable input prices, resulting in a new 2026 production projection of 48,300 million pounds. This would be an increase of 0.8% from the 2025 projection.
Broiler meat exports totalled 556.6 million pounds in July 2025, up 3.2% year over year. Total exports for January through July are 2.7% lower than the same period in 2024. Exports to Mexico accounted for 24.1% of shipments in July. The next largest destination was Taiwan, accounting for 11% of July shipments for broiler meat exports. With 61.8 million pounds, this was the largest monthly total shipped to Taiwan since January 2024.
Reflecting the strength of July’s shipments, the projected third quarter 2025 export total was adjusted upward 50 million pounds to 1,650 million pounds. For the fourth quarter of 2025, projected exports were adjusted downward 25 million pounds to 1,650 million pounds reflecting strong international competition. In total, the new broiler export projection for 2025 is 6,506 million pounds. This would be a decrease of 2.6% year over year and represent 13.6% of projected 2025 production. For 2026, projected broiler exports are unchanged at 6,610 million pounds, which would be an increase of 1.6% year over year and represent 13.7% of projected 2026 production.
Broiler imports in July totalled 14.3 million pounds, originating primarily from Chile. Reflecting the strength of July shipments, the broiler import projection for 2025 was adjusted 10 million pounds higher to 160 million pounds. Projected 2026 imports are unchanged at 140 million pounds.
