Brazil chicken output set for record growth in 2026
Economic pressures persist for hog and poultry producers
20 March 2026
1 minute read
By: Brazil is the third-largest chicken meat producer in the world, behind the United States and the PRC, per official USDA data. Post forecasts chicken meat production in 2026 to increase two percent from 2025, reaching 15.7 million metric tons (MMT). This forecast is based on consistent external demand, lower currency valuation, reduced production costs, and increased domestic consumption, despite sluggish socio-economic performance expected for the country. Post forecasts that production in 2026 will reach record levels.
Socio-economic factors to weigh on production
The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) forecasts GDP to grow 1.82% in 2026, following 2.2% growth in 2025. The Central Bank Focus Survey published on February 27th anticipates inflation at 3.91% in 2026. The exchange rate for the Brazilian real to US dollars is forecast at R$5.42 to USD1.00 in 2026. While the real gained value against the US dollar over the past year, it remains significantly devalued relative to historical averages of the past decade, affecting production and exports.
The Institute of Geography and Statistics’ (IBGE) latest data reports that Brazil had 5.5 million unemployed people in the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 5.1% unemployment rate.
However, there are an additional 2.6 million people that have stopped looking for work. The total underutilised rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 was 13.4%. Other factors, such as high interest rates, tariffs and taxes, fiscal uncertainties, and regulatory issues, all weigh on producers’ capacity to make investments, manage risk, and make decisions related to production.
