Ukraine poultry output set to recover in 2026
UK trade deal, EU quota signal renewed export confidence
6 May 2026
2 minute read
By: Ukraine's chicken meat production is forecast to recover in 2026 following a difficult year in which the industry was forced to adapt to a range of war-related challenges, according to a recent poultry market report from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service. While production is expected to remain relatively low by historical standards, the outlook represents a gradual return to stability after a turbulent 2025.
The Russia-Ukraine war led to a series of production setbacks last year, including temporary stalls caused by prolonged electricity outages, labour shortages, rising input costs, and shrinking domestic demand.
After an optimistic first half of 2025, output declined in the second half of the year. Although official annual production figures are not yet available, animal numbers and slaughter indicators suggest production stabilised by the end of 2025. Ukraine's largest poultry producer, MHP SE, reported a decline in production in its third-quarter 2025 results, though exports remained stable, drawn from existing stocks. Information from smaller producers is limited, though some have reported production and logistical difficulties.
The industry's vertical integration has provided additional resilience, enabling cross-subsidisation of poultry production from crop production, trading, oilseed crushing, and commodity exports. However, many producers were forced to cut output in 2025 and seek additional financial support.
The two largest poultry producers, MHP SE and Dniprovsky, restructured their debt to gain greater operational flexibility heading into 2026. Through significant effort to adjust, the industry is likely to return to production levels similar to 2024, though further growth beyond that is considered unlikely.
All chicken meat producers faced growing production costs in 2025 and into early 2026. Although increased soybean production and a subsequent price correction led to a drop in feed costs, the cost of other production inputs continued to climb.
Energy costs grew as a share of total production expenditure, as producers relied heavily on backup generators during extended blackouts, paying for diesel fuel and ongoing maintenance. These additional costs were passed on to buyers, pushing retail chicken meat prices higher. Nevertheless, chicken remains the cheapest animal protein available to Ukrainian consumers and accounts for approximately half of all animal protein consumption in the country.
War-related risks continue to shape the production outlook for 2026. These include process stalls linked to prolonged power outages, increased costs from the intensive use of alternative electricity sources, stagnant demand due to continuing population outflows, workforce shortages and increased staff turnover caused by conscription, logistical and cold storage difficulties, severe winter weather conditions requiring additional heating, and work interruptions due to heightened air alerts.
Many producers had to slow down output in the second half of 2025 and invest in new energy-generating equipment. Disease risk also remains a concern, though no highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in commercial flocks were recorded in Ukraine during 2025.
One non-poultry HPAI case was reported in the north of the country.
