USDA raises 2026 broiler output forecast, cuts export outlook
Strong first half unable to offset global competition headwinds
29 May 2026
2 minute read
By: US broiler production is projected higher in 2026, according to the USDA's April Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, though export forecasts have been trimmed on strong international competition and weaker demand from key markets.
Broiler production in February 2026 totalled 3,807 million pounds, down from January but up 4.8% year over year. The increase is attributable to both higher weights (+1.7%) and higher slaughter (+3.1%) compared to last February. In February 2026, 797.9 million broiler chicks were hatched, up 2.4% year over year. For the first 13 weeks of the year, weekly broiler chick placements averaged 195.2 million per week, up 2.1% compared to the same period last year.
Reflecting strength in these early indicators of broiler production, as well as strong preliminary weekly slaughter data in March, projected 2026 broiler production is adjusted up to 11,900 million pounds in the first quarter and to 12,200 million pounds in the second quarter. With the third- and fourth-quarter projections unchanged at 12,500 million pounds and 12,300 million pounds respectively, the new 2026 broiler production projection is 48,900 million pounds, an increase of 1.9% from 2025.
Broiler meat exports in January and February of 2026 totalled 1,047.5 million pounds, down 11.7 million pounds from the same period in 2025. Year-over-year decreases to partner countries, including Cuba (-50.2 million pounds) and Taiwan (-33.1 million pounds), were only partially offset by increased shipments to Vietnam (+29.6 million pounds), Turkmenistan (+17.5 million pounds), Haiti (+15.6 million pounds), the Philippines (+11.3 million pounds), and others. Shipments to the largest export destination for U.S. broiler meat, Mexico, totalled 252.9 million pounds in January and February 2026, down 15.7 million pounds from the same period in 2025. Mexico's share of U.S. broiler exports was 24.1% for the first two months of 2026.
For 2026, projected exports were decreased to 6,595 million pounds, reflecting lower expectations for shipments in the second half of the year because of strong international competition. This would be a year-over-year decrease of 1.2% and represent 13.5% of projected 2026 production.
The national composite wholesale whole broiler price averaged 118.56 cents per pound in March, resulting in a first-quarter average of 119.5 cents per pound. The weekly average price for the week ending April 3 was 120.91 cents per pound. Reflecting steady price trends, the second-quarter projected average price was adjusted down to 125 cents per pound. With the outlying quarters of 2026 unchanged, the new annual average projection is 123.6 cents per pound, down from 124.8 cents in 2025.
