Report Highlights

Mexico’s poultry industry is forecast to continue growing through MY 2008 (Jan-Dec), though not at the same rate that the industry has experienced over the past several years. Higher costs of production, which translate into higher consumer prices, and competition from foreign imports, will have a dampening effect on the industry. Imports of U.S. poultry and poultry products are forecast to increase in response to growing demand. Mexico’s avian influenza restriction on 11 Texas counties was recently lifted. The cessation of this restriction coincided with an end to the requirement that U.S. trucks carrying raw poultry products be sealed at the point of origin. Chile is emerging as a more significant supplier of frozen poultry for further processing as Mexican importers look to diversify suppliers.

Poultry Situation and Outlook

Poultry meat production is expected to increase in both MY 2007 and MY 2008. However, the current rate of increase is lower relative to the growth that the Mexican poultry industry has experienced over the past decade. This slower growth rate is primarily attributable to higher production costs, mainly imported grains, and continued competition from poultry imports. The Mexican industry appears to have taken advantage of the time afforded by the safeguard agreement that was signed in July of 2003, which established a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for imports of U.S. chicken leg quarters (CLQs). Some larger scale producers have taken steps to improve quality and sanitary practices in an attempt to realize new export opportunities. Mexico does not yet have an equivalency agreement with USDA’s Food Safety Inspection Service that would allow for exports of domestically produced poultry meat and egg products to the United States, though officials continue to work towards this objective.

Imports of both chicken and turkey meat are forecast to increase slightly in MY 2008, primarily in response to growing demand from Mexican food processors for mechanically separated meat and cuts for further processing. In July of 2007 the Government of Mexico withdrew the avian influenza ban on poultry from 11 counties in Texas. The termination of this ban was accompanied by an end to the requirement that all shipments of raw U.S. poultry to Mexico to be sealed at the point of origin. CLQ imports are expected to continue to be strong. In fact over quota imports of CLQs are expected to increase due to significantly higher wholesale prices.

Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.

Further Reading

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List of Articles in this series

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October 2007