World human population growth is slowing and is forecast to average little more than one per cent a year between 2012 and 2022.

For the period 2015 and 2030, it is expected to average less than one per cent a year (Table 1).

For Europe in this latter period, the population having risen from 742.1 million in 2015 to 744.2 million in 2020, then contracts such that the estimate for 2030 of 741.2 million is actually below the 2015 figure. Hence, as a proportion of the world total Europe’s share will have declined from almost 12 per cent in 2000 to less than nine per cent by 2030 (Table 1).

Along with population increases, economic growth has a major impact on demand. Across advanced economies, economic growth of 1.2 per cent is predicted for 2013, which compares with 1.1 per cent in 2012. In developing and emerging economies, economic growth is projected to drop from 5.5 per cent in 2012 to 5.0 per cent in 2013. As purchasing power rises, consumers with low to middle incomes generally buy more food and also tend to eat more varied diets which include increasing their meat consumption.

Over the next decade, according to the Economics Research Service of the USDA, increases in meat consumption in developing countries are projected to average 2.4 per cent per year compared with 0.9 per cent in developed economies. For poultry consumption the increase in developing countries is expected to rise 2.8 per cent per year between 2013 and 2022, which is much faster than that for pork (2.2 per cent) and beef (1.9 per cent).

The data on poultry meat consumption (Table 2), although presented to fractions of a kilogramme, should not be taken literally with not too much attention paid to small changes from year to year because of errors that may have occurred in the estimates of available supplies and human population numbers. Nevertheless, the figures are a good guide to the general trend.

It is apparent that consumption per person has increased in all the regions of the world. For the period 2000 to 2009, the increase in consumption per person was fastest in Europe as it recorded gains of 37 per cent against the global average of 23 per cent (Figure 1). However, for the European Community, the gain was only 12 per cent as the average uptake increased from 19.8 to 22.2kg per person.

Growth in world meat consumption is projected to increase by about 1.8 per cent per year between 2013 and 2022, with the uptake of poultry rising faster than that for pork or beef.

Figure 1. Poultry meat consumption in Europe compared to other regions and the global average (kg/person/year)

According to FAO data (Table 3) while poultry meat consumption in Europe has increased dramatically from 16kg per person per year in 2000 to almost 22kg in 2009, clearly the increase has been far more dramatic outside than inside the Community where the average uptake rose from 19.8kg to 22.2kg per person over the review period.

With the exceptions of the Americas and Oceania, average consumption levels are higher in Europe than in the other regions of the world, with only a few countries have uptakes below the global average of 13.6kg per person. Some increases in chicken consumption per person have arisen as buyers have switched from other meats, chicken being perceived as being cheaper and more convenient. Although the estimate of poultry meat uptake in the EU in 2013 is put at 24.2kg from 23.9kg in 2012, the longer-term forecast foresees little change on the latest figure.

The total quantity of broiler meat consumed in Russia is expected to expand by slightly more than six per cent in 2014 to an estimated near 3.8 million tonnes, as a result of rising incomes and the competitive price of chicken compared with the alternatives. In July 2013, retail beef prices were 150 per cent higher than broiler meat, while pork cost some 90 per cent more. In addition, it is considered that chicken consumption will be given a boost by an increase in the production of a greater variety of products such as sausages and cutlets. However, as Russia’s population is contracting, uptake on a per person basis is also likely to rise, pushing poultry meat consumption to 27.2kg per person by 2015.

The growth in broiler consumption in Ukraine has been primarily dependent upon low- income consumers choosing what they considered to be lower-priced meat products although other views such as chicken being healthier and easy to cook have also prevailed. America’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) has forecast that Ukraine’s broiler uptake will reach 23kg per person by 2019 compared with 19kg in 2012.

Poultry consumption in The Netherlands fell by 400g per person in 2011 to 22.4kg. This was mainly the result of a contraction in the quantity of chicken eaten from 18.8kg to 18.5kg per person. The reduction reflected fewer special offers at retail level, which underlines the importance that price plays in purchases.

While the total demand for meat has changed little in Spain, the economic crisis has resulted in a significant change in the quantities of the different meats consumed. Researchers at the University of Extremadura have predicted that chicken consumption will overtake beef by 2016.

October 2013