Poultry Outlook Report - October 2003 - By U.S.D.A., Economic Research Service - This article is an extract from the October 2003: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook Report, highlighting Global Poultry industry data. This report indicates that total production for 2004 will be up 2.1 percent on 2003.

Composite Broiler Price Percent change from previous month

With the number of chicks being placed for grow-out now averaging slightly more than a year ago and average weights continuing a steady increase, the broiler production forecast for fourth quarter 2003 was increased by 25 million pounds to 8.13 billion pounds.

The production estimate for 2004 was also increased by 250 million pounds. Total production for 2004 is 33.250 billion pounds, 2.1 percent greater than 2003. The increase in production in 2004 is expected to come from a slightly higher number of birds being slaughtered and small gains in average live-weight.

The relatively small gain in production and a forecast for a more stable export environment, especially to Russia, is expected to maintain or slightly strengthen prices for dark meat products.

Egg Prices Sharply Higher

Retail Turkey Price Percent change from previous month

Wholesale table egg prices (NY grade A large) averaged 89.9 cents per dozen in the third-quarter, sharply above last year’s price of 65.3 cents. For all of 2003 prices are expected to average about 84 cents per dozen. In 2004 the expected average price is 82-88 cents per dozen. Higher egg prices are likely due to tighter per capita supplies, resulting from low returns during 1999-2002. U.S. egg-type layer flocks declined from over 279 to 274 million birds between January and August 2003. The flocks in August 2003 were nearly 3 million birds less than a year ago.

The retail price is expected to average $1.18 per dozen for all of 2003, an increase of about 15 cents above 2002. In 2004, prices may edge slightly higher. As a result of higher egg prices, more eggs will likely be marketed as shell eggs rather than going into the breaker market.

U.S. egg exports in 2003 continue to decline mainly due to layer-flock recovery from avian diseases in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany, which imported more shell egg and egg products to compensate for their egg production lost in 2002.

Weekly Broiler Slaughter Percent change from last year

Weekly Turkey Slaughter Percent change from last year

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For more information view the full Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - October 2003 (pdf)

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service - October 2003