Poultry Production to Move Ahead

After a year of almost stagnant production, world poultry meat output is expected to expand by 2.5 million tonnes (mt) or almost three per cent in 2010 to reach a record near 95mt, writes Terry Evans exclusively for ThePoultrySite.

30 June 2010

4 minute read

According to the latest FAO's Food Outlook Report, relatively high feed costs have slowed production growth. But, as feed prices are expected to fall later this year following a global bumper maize crop, it is possible that poultry meat output will exceed the forecast figure.

An expansion in production of some two is forecast for the US, pushing the total for all poultry to around 19.8mt. However, in the European Union the gain is likely to be as small as 0.5 per cent with output at just under 1.2mt.

Continued growth in domestic demand should push output in China towards 16.8mt.

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"The anticipated cut-back in US exports of chicken meat could be as much as 13 per cent."

Production in India, Asia's second largest producer, continues to climb and could come close to 3mt in the next couple of years.

In South America, Brazil could see output exceed the 11mt mark for the first time, while on the export front, Brazil looks likely to hold on to the number one spot shipping almost 4mt compared to the US at 3.4mt.

A large 11 per cent increase is foreseen in the Russian Federation with production climbing to a new 'high' of 2.6mt. This, coupled with a lower import quota for supplies from the US, will likely result in imports contracting to less than 850,000 tonnes. This is why the anticipated cut-back in US exports of chicken meat could be as much as 13 per cent.

China is expected to boost its exports by a significant eight per cent to top a million tonnes, while her imports are also expected to rise to almost 2mt.

According to the report, 'Poultry exports from Thailand, mostly cooked, are anticipated to increase this year by eight per cent to almost 650,000 tonnes in response to a higher demand from Asian countries.'

In Japan, the third largest importer, high stocks will likely limit import growth to less than three per cent at around 820,000 tonnes. A similar percentage increase is envisaged for Mexico, where purchases could rise to some 765,000 tonnes.

As a result of the expected large fall in US exports, the total volume of poultry meat traded this year is not expected to change much from last year's 11.2mt.

Poultry meat production and trade ('000 tonnes carcass weight equivalent)
	Production		Imports		Exports
Region/ country	2009E	2010F	2009E	2010F	2009E	2010F
ASIA	32,243	33,244	5,705	5,741	1,885	2,011
- China	16,148	16,767	1,790	1,857	944	1,018
- India	2,624	2,726	-	-	3	3
- Indonesia	1,490	1,540	15	12	-	-
- Iran, Islamic Rep.	1,485	1,560	60	55	26	26
- Japan	1,366	1,377	797	820	9	11
- Malaysia	1,075	1,100	45	40	19	22
- Thailand	1,134	1,171	1	1	596	643
- Turkey	1,250	1,260	90	95	117	110
AFRICA	3,852	3,893	1,065	1,067	27	28
- South Africa	1,030	1,030	232	240	20	20
CENTRAL AMERICA	3,914	3,938	1,166	1,187	36	37
- Mexico	2,567	2,570	743	765	11	11
SOUTH AMERICA	15,820	16,396	514	509	4,074	4,370
- Argentina	1,263	1,389	7	7	214	246
- Brazil	10,650	11,055	1	1	3,724	3,984
NORTH AMERICA	20,578	21,048	299	320	4,089	3,570
- Canada	1,202	1,227	204	217	181	187
- US	19,376	19,821	85	92	3,907	3,383
EUROPE	14,873	15,248	2,246	2,122	999	981
- European Union	11,114	11,170	835	847	936	928
- Russian Federation	2,336	2,605	964	848	7	8
- Ukraine	864	900	195	165	19	14
OCEANIA	1,044	1,052	56	58	40	44
- Australia	871	878	4	4	34	37
WORLD	92,325	94,819	11,051	11,004	11,149	11,041
E=estimated, F=forecast Source:FAO