According to the latest FAO's Food Outlook Report, relatively high feed costs have slowed production growth. But, as feed prices are expected to fall later this year following a global bumper maize crop, it is possible that poultry meat output will exceed the forecast figure.

An expansion in production of some two is forecast for the US, pushing the total for all poultry to around 19.8mt. However, in the European Union the gain is likely to be as small as 0.5 per cent with output at just under 1.2mt.

Continued growth in domestic demand should push output in China towards 16.8mt.

* "The anticipated cut-back in US exports of chicken meat could be as much as 13 per cent."

Production in India, Asia's second largest producer, continues to climb and could come close to 3mt in the next couple of years.

In South America, Brazil could see output exceed the 11mt mark for the first time, while on the export front, Brazil looks likely to hold on to the number one spot shipping almost 4mt compared to the US at 3.4mt.

A large 11 per cent increase is foreseen in the Russian Federation with production climbing to a new 'high' of 2.6mt. This, coupled with a lower import quota for supplies from the US, will likely result in imports contracting to less than 850,000 tonnes. This is why the anticipated cut-back in US exports of chicken meat could be as much as 13 per cent.

China is expected to boost its exports by a significant eight per cent to top a million tonnes, while her imports are also expected to rise to almost 2mt.

According to the report, 'Poultry exports from Thailand, mostly cooked, are anticipated to increase this year by eight per cent to almost 650,000 tonnes in response to a higher demand from Asian countries.'

In Japan, the third largest importer, high stocks will likely limit import growth to less than three per cent at around 820,000 tonnes. A similar percentage increase is envisaged for Mexico, where purchases could rise to some 765,000 tonnes.

As a result of the expected large fall in US exports, the total volume of poultry meat traded this year is not expected to change much from last year's 11.2mt.

Further Reading

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You can view our recent series about chicken meat production in Asia, also by Terry Evans, by clicking here.

June 2010