Poultry Outlook Report - February 2005 - By U.S.D.A., Economic Research Service - This article is an extract from the February 2005: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook Report, highlighting Global Poultry Industry data. The report indicates that the first estimate of broiler production for fourth-quarter 2004 is 8.53 billion pounds, up 3.5 percent from the same quarter in 2003.

Fourth-Quarter 2004 Broiler Production at 8.53 Billion Pounds

The increase was the result of a higher number of broilers slaughtered (up 2.6 percent) and an increase in their average liveweight (up 1.5 percent). The estimate of production for all of 2004 is 34.06 billion pounds, up 4 percent from the previous year. The outlook for 2005 is for continued growth, though at a slightly lower rate.

Broiler exports in fourthquarter 2004 reached 1.485 billion pounds, the highest quantity exported in any one quarter. With the strengthening of exports in the fourth quarter of 2004, the estimate for the first quarter of 2005 was increased by 90 million pounds to 1.25 billion pounds. This increases the overall export forecast for 2005 to 5.03 billion pounds, the second highest export forecast since the record 5.56 billion pounds in 2001.

Fourth-Quarter 2004 Broiler Production at 8.53 Billion Pounds

The first estimate of broiler production for fourth-quarter 2004 is 8.53 billion pounds, up 3.5 percent from the same quarter in 2003. The increase was the result of a higher number of broilers being slaughtered (up 2.6 percent) and an increase in their average live weight (up 1.5 percent). With the fourth-quarter estimate, production for 2004 is 34.06 billion pounds, up 4 percent from the previous year. The outlook for 2005 is for continued growth, up at a slightly lower rate.

Broiler exports in fourth-quarter 2004 reached 1.485 billion pounds, the highest exported in any one quarter. With the strengthening of exports in the fourth quarter of 2004, the estimate for the first quarter of 2005 was increased by 90 million pounds to 1.25 billion pounds. This increases the overall export forecast for 2005 to 5.03 billion pounds, the highest quantity exported since the record 5.56 billion pounds in 2001. With the exception of wings, prices for most broiler products are still lower than what they were at the start of February 2004. As of the beginning of February 2005, whole wing prices in the southern market were approximately $1.21 per pound, up about 3 cents per pound from the same time in 2004.

Total exports for 2004 were 4.767 billion pounds, down 3 percent from the previous year. The decline in exports occurred mostly in the first-half of 2004 due to a combination of high domestic prices and export restrictions due to Avian Influenza (AI) in the United States. Countering lower exports to such key markets as Russia (down 3 percent) and China/Hong Kong (down 56 percent), exports to Canada, Mexico, and the New Independent States (NIS) rose strongly. At the present time broiler exports are free of most disease-related restrictions. So far in 2005 there has been a number of AI outbreaks in Southeast Asia, with the most serious in Vietnam where millions of broilers and ducks have been culled. Vietnam has also suffered a number of human deaths among people disposing of dead or infected birds.

Even with slightly lower exports in terms of volume, the broiler industry enjoyed a strong year in terms of overall export value. While the volume of broiler products was down 3 percent, the value of these exports rose to $1.734 billion, up 16 percent from the previous year.

Turkey Meat Production Falls in 2004, Weights Increase

The number of turkeys slaughtered in 2004 was 254 million birds, down 5 percent from the previous year and meat production was down by 3.6 percent. The reason that turkey meat was not down more was that average turkey live weight at slaughter rose to just over 27 pounds, up 1.1 percent from the previous year. Due to the slightly stronger-than-expected production and hatchery data in fourth-quarter 2004, the estimates for the first two quarters of 2005 were increased. The estimate for the first quarter of 2005 was moved higher by 40 million pounds to 1.33 billion pounds, and the estimate for the second quarter of 2005 was increased by 20 million pounds to 1.4 billion.

Turkey exports in 2004 were 443 million pounds, down 8.5 percent from the previous year. Most of the decline was due to reduced shipments to a number of Asian countries. Shipments to China/Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea were all down over 30 percent from the previous year. Partially offsetting these declines were higher exports to Canada, Mexico, Russia, and the NIS countries. Turkey exports followed much the same pattern as broiler exports in that the quantity of shipments was down but the value of shipments was up strongly. During 2004 shipments of turkey meat and products totaled $300 million, up almost 13 percent from the previous year.

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Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service - February 2005