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US WASDE Report: Poultry production forecast reduced

USDA lowered total red meat and poultry production

13 October 2021, at 2:19am

World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast for 2021 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower pork, broiler, and turkey forecasts more than offset a higher beef forecast.

Broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced on recent hatchery and slaughter data.

The egg production forecast is reduced slightly.

The pork production forecast is reduced on lower expected fourth quarter hog slaughter.

Beef production is raised from the previous month as lower expected steer and heifer slaughter are more than offset by higher cow slaughter and heavier average carcass weights.

For 2022, the total red meat and poultry forecast is reduced from the previous month. Although higher expected placements of cattle in second half 2021 are expected to support higher early-year supplies of fed cattle, placements in the first half of 2022 are lowered and fed cattle supplies in the second half or 2022 are expected to be tighter.

USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on September 24, estimated a lower pig crop for June-August and lower farrowing intentions for September-November. This supports lower hog slaughter expectations for first half 2022. Slower expected growth in pigs per litter during 2022 resulted in lower expected hog supplies in the second half of the year.

Broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced on expectations of a relatively slow response to improving margins. The 2022 egg production forecast is unchanged.

2021 and 2022 exports

  • Beef import forecasts are raised reflecting continued strength in demand while the export forecasts are unchanged.
  • The pork import forecasts are raised on increased supplies of pork on the global market. The pork export forecast for 2021 is reduced on weaker expected demand from China and increased competition in global markets; however, exports are increased for 2022 as growth in several key markets recovers.
  • The broiler export forecast for 2021 is raised slightly, but no change is made to the 2022 forecast. Turkey export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are lowered from last month.

Fed cattle prices for 2021 are lowered on current price movements and relatively large supplies of fed cattle. However, the 2022 price forecast is raised on tighter expected supplies of cattle.

The 2021 and 2022 hog price forecasts are raised on lower expected hog supplies.

Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised for 2021 and 2022 on lowered production.

Dairy

Milk production forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are reduced from last month on smaller dairy cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow. For 2021 and 2022, fat basis import forecasts are unchanged from the previous month, while the fat basis export forecasts are raised on stronger expected sales of cheese and butterfat containing products.

The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2021 is lowered slightly on weaker expected imports of milk protein concentrates, but the 2022 forecast is unchanged. Skim-solids basis export forecast for 2021 is reduced on weaker sales of skim milk powder, whey, and lactose; however, the forecast for 2022 is unchanged.

For 2021, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey price forecasts are raised on current prices and lower expected production. The butter price is lowered slightly on current prices. For 2022, all dairy product prices are raised, largely on tighter supplies.

The 2021 and 2022 Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from last month on higher dairy product prices. The 2021 all milk price is forecast higher at $18.45 per cwt. The all milk price forecast for 2022 is $19.20 per cwt.

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