US WASDE Report: Poultry production forecast reduced

On Tuesday, USDA released their World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report, and red meat and poultry estimates were lowered
calendar icon 13 October 2021
clock icon 5 minute read

2021 and 2022 exports

  • Beef import forecasts are raised reflecting continued strength in demand while the export forecasts are unchanged.
  • The pork import forecasts are raised on increased supplies of pork on the global market. The pork export forecast for 2021 is reduced on weaker expected demand from China and increased competition in global markets; however, exports are increased for 2022 as growth in several key markets recovers.
  • The broiler export forecast for 2021 is raised slightly, but no change is made to the 2022 forecast. Turkey export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are lowered from last month.

Fed cattle prices for 2021 are lowered on current price movements and relatively large supplies of fed cattle. However, the 2022 price forecast is raised on tighter expected supplies of cattle.

The 2021 and 2022 hog price forecasts are raised on lower expected hog supplies.

Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised for 2021 and 2022 on lowered production.

Dairy

Milk production forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are reduced from last month on smaller dairy cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow. For 2021 and 2022, fat basis import forecasts are unchanged from the previous month, while the fat basis export forecasts are raised on stronger expected sales of cheese and butterfat containing products.

The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2021 is lowered slightly on weaker expected imports of milk protein concentrates, but the 2022 forecast is unchanged. Skim-solids basis export forecast for 2021 is reduced on weaker sales of skim milk powder, whey, and lactose; however, the forecast for 2022 is unchanged.

For 2021, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey price forecasts are raised on current prices and lower expected production. The butter price is lowered slightly on current prices. For 2022, all dairy product prices are raised, largely on tighter supplies.

The 2021 and 2022 Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from last month on higher dairy product prices. The 2021 all milk price is forecast higher at $18.45 per cwt. The all milk price forecast for 2022 is $19.20 per cwt.

To see the full USDA WASDE Report, click here.

2021 and 2022 exports

  • Beef import forecasts are raised reflecting continued strength in demand while the export forecasts are unchanged.
  • The pork import forecasts are raised on increased supplies of pork on the global market. The pork export forecast for 2021 is reduced on weaker expected demand from China and increased competition in global markets; however, exports are increased for 2022 as growth in several key markets recovers.
  • The broiler export forecast for 2021 is raised slightly, but no change is made to the 2022 forecast. Turkey export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are lowered from last month.

Fed cattle prices for 2021 are lowered on current price movements and relatively large supplies of fed cattle. However, the 2022 price forecast is raised on tighter expected supplies of cattle.

The 2021 and 2022 hog price forecasts are raised on lower expected hog supplies.

Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised for 2021 and 2022 on lowered production.

Dairy

Milk production forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are reduced from last month on smaller dairy cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow. For 2021 and 2022, fat basis import forecasts are unchanged from the previous month, while the fat basis export forecasts are raised on stronger expected sales of cheese and butterfat containing products.

The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2021 is lowered slightly on weaker expected imports of milk protein concentrates, but the 2022 forecast is unchanged. Skim-solids basis export forecast for 2021 is reduced on weaker sales of skim milk powder, whey, and lactose; however, the forecast for 2022 is unchanged.

For 2021, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey price forecasts are raised on current prices and lower expected production. The butter price is lowered slightly on current prices. For 2022, all dairy product prices are raised, largely on tighter supplies.

The 2021 and 2022 Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from last month on higher dairy product prices. The 2021 all milk price is forecast higher at $18.45 per cwt. The all milk price forecast for 2022 is $19.20 per cwt.

To see the full USDA WASDE Report, click here.

Sarah Mikesell

Editor

Sarah Mikesell grew up on a five-generation family farming operation in Ohio, USA, where her family still farms. She feels extraordinarily lucky to get to do what she loves - write about livestock and crop agriculture. You can find her on Twitter or LinkedIn.

© 2000 - 2024 - Global Ag Media. All Rights Reserved | No part of this site may be reproduced without permission.