Turkeys Raised Down 1 Percent from 2002 - US - The preliminary estimate of turkeys raised in the United States during 2003 is 269 million, down 1 percent from the number raised during 2002., report the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

The following six States are expected to account for about two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2003:

Minnesota, at 45.5 million birds, is expected to raise the largest number of any state, and shows a 3 percent increase from last year.

North Carolina ranks second with 45.0 million birds, down 1 percent from 2002.

Missouri is in third place by producing 27.5 million birds, 8 percent more than a year ago.

Arkansas growers expect to produce 24.0 million birds in 2003, down 19 percent from the previous year.

Virginia, at 23.0 million birds is up 15 percent from 2002.

California expects to raise 16.5 million turkeys, 7 percent less than a year earlier.

Turkeys Raised Estimates

Data Sources: The Turkey Hatchery Survey provides the basis for the preliminary Turkeys Raised estimate published in August. Turkey hatchery estimates are made in 20 States each month and provide the number of eggs in incubators and poults placed in production. Data on poults placed into the United States from Canadian hatcheries are also included in the preliminary estimate.

Estimation Procedures: Turkeys Raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production, as well as breeder turkeys which reached maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" survey provides the basis for the preliminary estimates published in August. Final estimates, published in January, use indications from the December Growers Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations.

Generally, individual State data are not published if there are less than three operations in a State, or if any one operation has 60 percent or more of the total turkeys in the State. These data are combined into the "Other States" category.

Reliability: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates are based on a census of known active hatcheries and, therefore, have no sampling variability. However, estimates may be subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. These errors are minimized through strict quality controls in the edit and summarization process, and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when preliminary raised estimates are made in August. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data, and at the U.S. level, are usually less than one-half of one percent of the final estimate published in January. Estimates are also reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.

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Source: USDA NASS - Turkeys Raised Report - 22nd August 2003