NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 and 2006 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. It is assumed that the current delay in the implementation of the minimal-risk rule is temporary. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes.

Beef production is raised marginally, reflecting slightly higher slaughter in the second quarter. The pork production forecast is raised slightly because slaughter weights are expected to be heavier than previously projected as weights have been running higher so far this year. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, scheduled for release June 24, will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions into 2006.

Broiler production is forecast higher than last month as production to date has been revised upward and increases in hatch and weights are expected to carry forward through the year. Egg production is forecast lower than last month as the growth of laying flocks has slowed. Egg production forecasts for 2006 are unchanged.

Livestock and poultry prices are forecast weaker in the second quarter of 2005 based on prices to date. Except for eggs, forecasts for other quarters of 2005 and 2006 are unchanged. Egg price forecasts are lower.

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Source: USDA - Economic Research Service - 10th June 2004