Australian poultry meat consumption will increase - AUSTRALIA - ABARE pig and poultry outlook.

ABARE predicts Australian poultry meat consumption will increase moderately, to 39kg per person by 2010-11 – 2.6% higher than in 2005-06.

This firm demand, combined with forecast lower feed costs, is projected to result in an 11% increase in poultry meat production over the projection period, from 792,000 tonnes in 2004-05, to 880,000 tonnes in 2010-11.

Retail poultry prices are forecast to fall 6% in real terms, from 382¢/kg in 2005-06, to 360¢/kg in 2010-11.

Australian saleyard prices for pigs rose 8% during 2004-05, to 253¢/kg, primarily due to a 4% fall in pig production according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) in the March quarter edition of Australian Commodities – forecasts and issues.

Saleyard prices remained high in the second half of 2005, supported by firm domestic demand and a decline in imports. Uncertainty about the implementation of new quarantine rules for pig meat imports had disrupted imports in the latter half of 2005.

Saleyard prices for pig meat are expected to ease over the remainder of 2005-06, to average 240¢/kg, as domestic production and imports increase and prices for other meats ease. ABARE projects that over the medium term, increased global pig meat production (particularly in north America) is forecast to result in lower world, and consequently Australian, pig meat saleyard prices, with prices falling to 186¢/kg (in real terms). Assisted by these lower prices, pig meat production in Australia is forecast to decline from 388,000 tonnes in 2004-05, to 365,000 tonnes in 2010-11.

Domestic consumption of pig meat is projected to remain steady from 2005-06 to 2010-11, at around 22.2kg per person per year. Retail pig meat prices (in real terms) are projected to rise 2% over this period, from 1103¢/kg in 2005-06, to an average of 1130¢/kg in 2010-11.

Source: Meat and Livestock Australia - 20th March 2006