International Egg and Poultry Review - By the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service - This is a weekly report looking at international developments concerning the poultry industry, this week looking at the Avian Influenza situation in Turkey.

The Avian Influenza Situation in Turkey

Turkey reported its first case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to the OIE last October 10, 2005 in a backyard flock of 4.5 month old turkeys. The flock of 1,800 destroyed birds were located in a sparsely populated military zone between Kiziksa and Salur villages in Manyas district, Balikesir province, which is situated in the northwestern part of Marmara region. It was the first occurrence of a listed disease or infection in the country. The source was unknown and the following measures were taken to counteract the disease: stamping out, quarantine, controlled movements within Turkey, zoning (3-km-radius protection zone and a 10-km-radius surveillance zone), and disinfection of all premises and establishments.

On December 8, 2006 Turkey prematurely declared itself free of avian influenza only to have another flare up in some backyard chickens, geese, turkeys, and ducks in Igdir province. Around 1,559 poultry were destroyed and more control measures were taken. Between December 27, 2005 and March 31, 2006 outbreaks of AI were found in a total 51 of the country's 81 provinces.

The last outbreak to date was March 31, 2006 in Yozgat province. Between April 6, 2006 and present Turkey has had no new cases of bird flu and has eradicated 32 of the infected provinces. All quarantines and related restrictions have been removed by Turkey's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. However restrictions related to the banning of live bird markets, the selling of live birds, and the hunting of wild birds will continue indefinitely. Field surveillance is also expected to continue with random blood sampling and monitoring taking place over the next 3 months at least. The periodic screening of industrial poultry operations will continued even though screenings of poultry in villages has ceased. Also the Ministry of Environment and Forestry is developing and looking for funding to observe and record bird migration routes, which would be compiled into a National Bird Observation System.

Turkey's residual control program has been approved by the European Union (EU), which should allow them to export poultry to the EU immediately; however Turkey will have to wait six months from this past April before it can resume exporting poultry, due to the AI outbreaks. In light of this industry representatives remain skeptical believing exports will not truly resume until Turkey has lifted its bans on EU live animal and meat.

Since October of 2005, Turkey's broiler sector has suffered as poultry demand fell 90% shortly after the December outbreaks. Broiler stocks increased to more than 100,000 metric tons (MT) with prices bottoming at YTL 1.50 per kilogram on whole birds. In March, demand rebounded prompting increases in production and price (YTL 2.60 per kilogram for whole birds). Producers profited as the cost of production is YTL 2.00 per kilogram, thus instigating another production increase, an excess of product, and the reduction of prices to its current level, YTL 1.60 per kilogram.

Current broiler stocks are estimated to be at 70,000 MT with weekly broiler consumption and production at 19,000 MT, which is slightly lower than the 21,000 MT in 2005. Production was at 940,000 MT in 2004 and 960,000 MT in 2005 with 2006 expectations to be similar to 10% lower. In 2006, turkey production is projected to be at 50,000 MT and 55,000 MT on spent hens and other poultry.

In comparison, the Turkish egg sector has endured a longer period of hardship from the bird flu outbreaks since the industry cannot maintain large stocks. At the height of the crisis, Turkey's egg stocks were at about 500 million eggs with prices to producers reduced to YTL 0.03 per egg from YTL 0.07 per egg. Even though prices began to gradually increase to around YTL 0.06 per egg by mid-April producers continued to lose money as cost of production is YTL 0.07 per egg.

After all of the stocks were disposed of April 15, 2006 egg prices recovered to YTL 0.08 per egg as producers began to profit. Yet the price surge did not last long and prices fell slightly to its current fluctuating level, YTL 0.07 to 0.075 per egg. Egg demand is currently estimated at roughly 140 million a week and 7.3 billion a year, which is lower than 2005 with 160 million and 8.3 billion respectively. Note egg prices, production, and consumption all vary considerably with the seasons.

At present, Turkey has an estimated 34 million industrial layers (includes 8 million layer chicks), which is down significantly from 2005's 43 million layers (includes 14 million layer chicks). On January 24, 2006 the government of Turkey (GOT) decreed all spent hens be culled, totalling 13.5 million in 1 month alone. Compensation payments were made in March and April for YTL 1.10 per bird. A support program was introduced at the end of March paying producers YTL 0.30 per bird slaughtered and slaughterhouses YTL 0.10 per bird. About 4 million spent hens are estimated to be slaughtered within a 3-month period and that the GOT will pay a total of YTL 1.6 million (US $1.1 million) by July when the program is completed. (On June 13, 2006: USD $1.00 = YTL (New Turkish Lire) $1.60).
Source: OIE/USDA FAS/USDA AMS/FAO

Current June World Avian Influenza Update

June 7-9, 2006 new outbreaks of HPAI were confirmed in poultry in Xinjiang, Qinhai, and Tibet provinces in the Republic of China. About 2,754 birds were destroyed with control measures being applied. June 7, 2006 Poland and Switzerland both reported no further cases of HPAI since the last confirmed outbreak in each country. Poland lifted restrictions. In Switzerland zoning measures were lifted May 1, 2006, however monitoring continues. Niger confirmed H5N1 in backyard poultry (chickens) with 530 deaths and 8,000 susceptible. Control measures are being taken.

June 5, 2006 India reported no new cases of avian flu since its last outbreak April 18 ,2006, which destroyed 31,970 backyard and commercial birds. Surveillance continues. June 4, 2006 Israel declared no further cases of HPAI since its last outbreak April 1, 2006. Cleaning and disinfection were completed May 1, 2006. About 1,120,000 commercial birds were destroyed.

June 1, 2006 Romania reported HPAI in backyard poultry in the following counties: Alba, Arges, Bacau, Brasov, Bucuresti, Buzau, Gorj, Ilfov, Mures, Prahova, Valcea, and Vrancea. Around 18,174 birds were destroyed.
Source: OIE

To view the full report, including tables please click here

Source: USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service - 13th June 2006