Outlook for US Agricultural Trade

Broiler meat exports in the first half of 2006 were up 3.3% from 2005 levels hitting 2.64 billion pounds, which was attributable to very low prices. Much of the increase in export volumes in 2006 was due to larger shipments to China/Hong Kong (+90%), Russia (+6%), and Mexico (+8%).

While total broiler exports in the first 6 months of 2006 rose, shipments in the second quarter dropped 54 million pounds from last year. Export values also declined in the first part of 2006 to $844 million, which was $97 million below the previous year (-10%). Broiler meat exports for the remainder of 2006 are forecast to reach 2.8 billion pounds (+7%), due to bird flu related reductions in exports to a number of countries in the fourth-quarter of 2005. While most of the outbreaks had only a minor impact on overall broiler production, the news of the incidents temporarily lowered consumer demand.

Turkey meat exports in the first 6 months of 2006 hit 244 million pounds, which was down 11% from the year earlier. Shipments to a number of markets were lower with Mexico accounting for the largest percentage decrease. Exports of turkey meat to Mexico totalled 154 million pounds in the first part of 2006, which were 11% under 2005 levels, due to lower broiler prices influencing some to substitute chicken for turkey.

However broiler prices are projected to strengthen in the second half of 2006 and in turn drive turkey exports to increase. Yet China/Hong Kong offset the reductions as exports were higher to this market. Forecasts for the remainder of 2006 are expecting turkey meat exports to jump 5% from 2005 to 310 million pounds.
Source: USDA ERS

Avian Influenza Update

August 19, 2006 Cambodia for the first time in 4 months detected 2 new outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian flu (HPAI) in ducks. One outbreak originated from a region with existing bird flu and eradication measures in operation, while the other was in nearby Batheay district. Prior to this, some 1,600 free-range ducks died or were destroyed on August 14, 2006, in the Preah Sdoch District in the Prey Veng Province, due to the discovery of AI.

Trinidad and Tobago announced August 18, 2006 the detection of low pathogenic avian influenza (AI) at a farm in central Trinidad, during a routine surveillance check. Samples have been sent to the UK for verification and measures are being implemented to contain the spread. On August 15, 2006 reported HPAI in the Changsha Division in Hunan Province. About 218,805 birds died or were destroyed.

USDA announced August 14, 2006 of its detection of bird flu in 2 wild mute swans in Monroe County in the state of Michigan. Preliminary tests have ruled out the possibility of HPAI, however more tests are being carried out at the USDA National Veterinary Services laboratories (NVSL) in Ames, Iowa.

On August 13, 2006 2 dead young owls from the Blijdorp Zoo in Rotterdam, Netherlands tested positive for H5N1 bird flu. Investigations continue for the final confirmation. The zoo will remain open, though greater precautions were being taken, especially with handlers as they have the greatest exposure. Egypt vaccinated about 45.5 million domestic and zoo birds August 10, 2006 in response to the detection of 25 cases of HPAI in 15 governorates from April to June of 2006 on commercial farms.
Source: Promed/OIE/USDA FAS/APHIS

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