International Egg and Poultry Review
By the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service - This is a weekly report looking at international developments concerning the poultry industry, this week looking at the latest in Russia and the EU.
Outlook for US Broiler Trade
Ready-to-cook broiler meat produced in the US hit 3.2 billion pounds in
August of 2006, which was up 1.9% over 2005. Slaughter numbers
dropped to 793.3 million pounds in August and were offset by an
increased average live weight of 1.5% to 5.36 pounds on a bird at
slaughter, which was the lowest bird weight in 2006. However most
light weights typically occur in July and August, due to the effects of heat
stress on the birds.
In July and August of 2006, broiler meat production was on target with
its 3rd quarter estimate of 9 billion pounds (less than 1% above 2005)
and under its 4th quarter estimate less than 1% to slightly under 9
billion pounds, due to the expected slow growth rate. Ending stocks for
3rd and 4th quarters fell to 690 million pounds (-35 million pounds)
and 725 million pounds (-25 million pounds) respectively. Forecasts
for 2007's 1st and 2nd quarters declined to 725 million pounds each,
due to expected slow growth.
US broiler meat exports in August dropped about 21% from 2005 levels
to 423 million pounds, however exports in August of 2005 were the
fourth largest in record. Third and fourth quarter export forecasts were
lowered with third quarter down 40 million pounds to 1.350 billion
pounds, 1% over 2005 levels, and fourth quarter down 25 million pounds
to 1.425 billion pounds, about 8% above a year ago, respectively based
on disappointing July and August exports. In turn, forecasts for the
second half of 2007 were reduced 65 million pounds with third quarter
projections down 25 million and fourth quarter down 40 million pounds.
Source: USDA ERS
Outlook for US Turkey Trade
US turkey meat production between January and August of 2006 was
3% higher when compared to the same period a year ago totaling 3.8
billion pounds. The number of birds slaughtered rose 1% to 23.4 million
pounds with an average live weight of 26.93 pounds, up 1.3% from
the previous year. Whole turkey prices rose to 79.4 cents per pounds in
the third quarter on 8-16 pound birds in the Eastern market, which was
about 3 cents higher than the same time a year ago, due to the relatively
slow increase in turkey meat production and the low stock levels.
The price estimate for the fourth quarter is projected to be 85 cents per
pound, which is about 1.5 cents per pound over 2005 levels and eight
cents above 2004's fourth quarter, due to forecasts of continued tight
supply conditions.
Turkey meat production in July and August was in line with estimates.
Estimates for both third and fourth quarter production were left unchanged
at 1.4 billion pounds each respectively, which was slightly
higher than previously forecast in 2005. Ending stock estimates for the
third and fourth quarters of 2006 were reduced, due to the expected
small growth. Third quarter ending stocks were reduced to 480 million
pounds, down 70 million pounds, while ending stocks for the fourth
quarter dropped 25 million pounds to 225 million pounds.
It is predicted that US turkey meat exporters will ship around 534 million
pounds of product in 2006, which is about a 6% decrease from
2005 levels. Yet turkey meat exports in August of 2006 reached 55.4
million pounds, which rose nearly 8 percent from the previous year.
Most of the increase is attributed to increased exports to Russia, Hong
Kong, Taiwan, and Canada. However estimates for 2006's third and
fourth quarters were reduced 10 million pounds each to 140 and 150
million pounds respectively. Forecasts for 2007 estimate turkey meat
exports to rise about 7% from a year ago to 575 million pounds.
Source: USDA ERS
Argentina
Broiler meat exports in 2007 are expected to hit 110,000 tons (excluding
50,000 tons of chicken paws), which is the highest ever, despite the
economic crisis and strong devaluation in 2002. The projected rise
and expansion of Argentina's exports is attributed to its competitiveness
and improved sanitary status as it is now free of Newcastle disease
and Avian Influenza (AI). However estimates for 2006 have been
lowered, due to AI outbreaks affecting the consumption of major import
countries of Argentine product.
Argentina also boasts one of the lowest production costs in the world
of roughly US$770 per ton in 2006, which were higher in comparison to
that of 2005 levels with predictions of even higher costs in 2007. Note
that 65% of total production costs consist of labor, corn, and soybeans.
Broiler production in Argentina is split amongst the provinces of Entre
Rios (47%), Buenos Aires (44%), and Santa Fe (5%). About 80% of the
country's production at 46 plants are federally inspected and are projected
to produce a new record of 1.29 million tons (excluding paws) in
2007.
Source: USDA FAS
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