Outlook for US Broiler Trade

Ready-to-cook broiler meat produced in the US hit 3.2 billion pounds in August of 2006, which was up 1.9% over 2005. Slaughter numbers dropped to 793.3 million pounds in August and were offset by an increased average live weight of 1.5% to 5.36 pounds on a bird at slaughter, which was the lowest bird weight in 2006. However most light weights typically occur in July and August, due to the effects of heat stress on the birds.

In July and August of 2006, broiler meat production was on target with its 3rd quarter estimate of 9 billion pounds (less than 1% above 2005) and under its 4th quarter estimate less than 1% to slightly under 9 billion pounds, due to the expected slow growth rate. Ending stocks for 3rd and 4th quarters fell to 690 million pounds (-35 million pounds) and 725 million pounds (-25 million pounds) respectively. Forecasts for 2007's 1st and 2nd quarters declined to 725 million pounds each, due to expected slow growth.

US broiler meat exports in August dropped about 21% from 2005 levels to 423 million pounds, however exports in August of 2005 were the fourth largest in record. Third and fourth quarter export forecasts were lowered with third quarter down 40 million pounds to 1.350 billion pounds, 1% over 2005 levels, and fourth quarter down 25 million pounds to 1.425 billion pounds, about 8% above a year ago, respectively based on disappointing July and August exports. In turn, forecasts for the second half of 2007 were reduced 65 million pounds with third quarter projections down 25 million and fourth quarter down 40 million pounds.
Source: USDA ERS

Outlook for US Turkey Trade

US turkey meat production between January and August of 2006 was 3% higher when compared to the same period a year ago totaling 3.8 billion pounds. The number of birds slaughtered rose 1% to 23.4 million pounds with an average live weight of 26.93 pounds, up 1.3% from the previous year. Whole turkey prices rose to 79.4 cents per pounds in the third quarter on 8-16 pound birds in the Eastern market, which was about 3 cents higher than the same time a year ago, due to the relatively slow increase in turkey meat production and the low stock levels. The price estimate for the fourth quarter is projected to be 85 cents per pound, which is about 1.5 cents per pound over 2005 levels and eight cents above 2004's fourth quarter, due to forecasts of continued tight supply conditions.

Turkey meat production in July and August was in line with estimates. Estimates for both third and fourth quarter production were left unchanged at 1.4 billion pounds each respectively, which was slightly higher than previously forecast in 2005. Ending stock estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 2006 were reduced, due to the expected small growth. Third quarter ending stocks were reduced to 480 million pounds, down 70 million pounds, while ending stocks for the fourth quarter dropped 25 million pounds to 225 million pounds.

It is predicted that US turkey meat exporters will ship around 534 million pounds of product in 2006, which is about a 6% decrease from 2005 levels. Yet turkey meat exports in August of 2006 reached 55.4 million pounds, which rose nearly 8 percent from the previous year. Most of the increase is attributed to increased exports to Russia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Canada. However estimates for 2006's third and fourth quarters were reduced 10 million pounds each to 140 and 150 million pounds respectively. Forecasts for 2007 estimate turkey meat exports to rise about 7% from a year ago to 575 million pounds.
Source: USDA ERS

Argentina

Broiler meat exports in 2007 are expected to hit 110,000 tons (excluding 50,000 tons of chicken paws), which is the highest ever, despite the economic crisis and strong devaluation in 2002. The projected rise and expansion of Argentina's exports is attributed to its competitiveness and improved sanitary status as it is now free of Newcastle disease and Avian Influenza (AI). However estimates for 2006 have been lowered, due to AI outbreaks affecting the consumption of major import countries of Argentine product.

Argentina also boasts one of the lowest production costs in the world of roughly US$770 per ton in 2006, which were higher in comparison to that of 2005 levels with predictions of even higher costs in 2007. Note that 65% of total production costs consist of labor, corn, and soybeans. Broiler production in Argentina is split amongst the provinces of Entre Rios (47%), Buenos Aires (44%), and Santa Fe (5%). About 80% of the country's production at 46 plants are federally inspected and are projected to produce a new record of 1.29 million tons (excluding paws) in 2007.
Source: USDA FAS

To view the full report, including tables please click here

ThePoultrySite News Desk