International Egg and Poultry Review
US - By the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service - This is a weekly report looking at international developments concerning the poultry industry.
23 July 2008
3 minute read
World Meat Projections
Global meat consumption is projected to increase due to the growing world population and increased per capita meat consumption.
Global population is projected to slow from an annual rate of 1.7% in the 1980s to a more restrained 1.1% per year for 2008-2017. Growth rates in most developing countries should remain above the rest of the world.
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Population in billions
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| 1995 | 2015 | % Chg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Countries | 5.68 | 7.20 | 27% |
| Developed | 1.28 | 1.36 | 7% |
| Developing | 4.40 | 5.83 | 33% |
Rising incomes in developing countries are projected to result in stronger consumer demand for meat. Poultry products are competitive as they are relatively less expensive than beef or pork. According to FAO's June Food Outlook, poultry meat continues to be the most affordable meat.
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Average Per Capita Income, % Change in Select Countries
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| 1991-2000 | 2001-2007 | 2008-2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| EU-27 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Russia | -3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| China | 10.5 | 9.9 | 8.4 |
| Vietnam | 7.4 | 7.5 | |
Total meat per capita consumption in developing countries totaled 19.74 kg in 1997 but is projected to total 26.92 kg by 2015. During this time, poultry meat consumption will grow from 6.06 to 8.48 kg, pig meat from 8.03 to 11.51 and beef and veal from 4.25 to 5.23kg.
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Annual Poultry Consumption in Select Countries, thousand metric tons
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| 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| World | 82,529 | 92,344 | 101,686 |
| US | 15,852 | 16,918 | 17,558 |
| Mexico | 2,996 | 3,129 | 3,290 |
| Japan | 1,667 | 1,702 | 1,653 |
| Turkey | 997 | 1,072 | 1,210 |
| EU-27 | 11,439 | 11,733 | 12,336 |
| Russia | 2,717 | 3,392 | 3,865 |
| Brazil | 5,829 | 6,575 | 7,359 |
| China | 13,998 | 16,452 | 17,904 |
| India | 1,713 | 2,613 | 3,347 |
Sources: OECD-FAO extracted on July 17, 2008; USDA Long Term Projections February 2008; ERS Agricultural Baseline Projections: Global Trade, 2008-2017; FAO Food Outlook May 2008
Further Reading
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