Cold storage stocks continue to track well above year ago levels, in part a reflection of slowing export sales but also due to the hangover from the supply ramp up earlier in the year. The latest USDA cold storage numbers showed that as of 31 December, 2008, combined beef, pork and poultry inventories in refrigerated warehouses were 2.193 billion pounds, 12.9 per cent higher than a year ago and 13.8 per cent higher than the five year average. Below are some of the details on the individual species, full details are included in the link below:

• Beef. Total beef stocks were 481.7 million pounds, just 0.2 per cent lower than a year ago but 5.7 per cent higher than the five year average. Boneless beef stocks, which include both domestic and imported beef products, were 404 million pounds, 1.5 per cent lower than a year ago but 2.6 per cent higher than a year ago.
  
  
• Pork. Total pork stocks at the end of the year were 549.0 million pounds, 19.7 per cent higher than a year ago and 20.2 per cent higher than the five year average. The surge in pork stocks was clearly disappointing as normally pork stocks at the end of December generally tend to be smaller than November levels. Even last year when total pork supplies in Q4 were at all time record levels, 31 December stocks still trended lower. We think this is another indication that pork exports have slowed down considerably, causing packers and exporters to back more product in freezers. Ham stocks were 63.3 million pounds, some 29.1 per cent higher than a year ago and 49 per cent higher than the five year average. Pork belly stocks were 51.7 million pounds, 5.6 per cent lower than a year ago but 3.6 per cent higher than the five year average. So far pork belly stocks remain in check but the belly futures market continues to be concerned with the significant slowdown in US domestic demand, especially foodservice demand. Inventories of pork trimmings at 65.5 million pounds were 21.3 per cent higher than a year ago and 50.6 per cent higher than the five year average.
  
  
• Poultry. Total broiler stocks were 741.2 million pounds, 3.1 per cent higher than a year ago and 2 per cent above the five year average. December broiler stocks declined sharply from the previous month, a result of the tightening chicken supplies. Total turkey stocks remain quite heavy and at 398.1 million pounds they are 52.8 per cent higher than a year ago and 49.9 per cent higher than the five year average.

Further Reading

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